A Case of Multi-Ulcerative Abscess Due to Brucellaabortusin Kerman, South East of Iran

Cutaneous involvement is an unusual complication in brucellosis that has been reported to range between 0.4% and 17%. We here introduce a 40-year-old shepherd, who presented with two ulcerative abscesses in his lower left leg. Cultivation of the abscess aspirate was positive for Brucella abortus. The first titer of his serological test was 1/160, which subsequently rose to 1/640. In countries like Iran where brucellosis is still endemic, it is important to take Brucella species into account among other pyogenic bacteria as a causative agent of cutaneous abscesses

Relationship of Spirituality with Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease undergoing CABG Surgery at Shariati Hospital

For downloading the full-text of this article please click here.Background and Objective: Coronary artery disease is the leading cause of death in most countries. Although the relationship between spirituality and health has been confirmed in various studies, the relation in this specific case has not been investigated. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the relationship of spirituality with morbidity and mortality in patients with coronary artery disease who underwent CABG surgery.Method: This cross-sectional study was performed on patients with coronary artery disease who had undergone CABG at Dr. Shariati Hospital in Tehran over the time period from December 2012 to December 2013. The data collection tools were a data gathering checklist based on patients' records and respective physician's confirmation and the Spirituality questionnaire (Hall and Edwards, 1996). Data were analyzed using Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and Spearman correlation coefficient. All ethical issues were observed in this study and the authors of the article have not reported any conflicts of interest.Results: The findings of the relationship between the six subscales of spirituality with morbidity and mortality showed that with an increase in the median score of disappointment subscale, the incidence of infection, tamponade, PVC and AF increased and by increasing the median score of awareness subscale, the incidence rate decreased (P<0.05). There was a significant positive correlation between the hospital stay and disappointment subscale (P=0.003, r=0.291). Mortality also decreased in patients who were more knowledgeable (p<0.05).Conclusion: The results of the research indicate that spirituality correlates with the incidence of morbidity and mortality after CABG surgery. Therefore, effective solutions such as considering the spiritual issues in the patients' treatment process and training appropriate psychological techniques should be used to expedite their recovery.For downloading the full-text of this article please click here.Please cite this article as: Bagheri J, Shayan N, BagheriM.M, Heidari M.Relationship of Spirituality with Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease undergoing CABG Surgery at Shariati Hospital. J Res Relig Health. 2019; 5(1): 76- 86. doi:https://doi.org/10.22037/jrrh.v5i1.17956

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Vitamin C in prevention of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass graft: double blind randomized clinical trial

Background: Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia after cardiac surgery. Vitamin C as an antioxidant has an important role in reducing the incidence of postop-erative atrial fibrillation. The present study aimed at administrating vitamin C as a way to reduce the incidence of post-CABG atrial fibrillation. Methods: In this double-blind, parallel clinical trial, 170 patients with coronary artery disease who underwent CABG surgery, by using a table of random numbers are di-vided into intervention and control groups to receive placebo or vitamin C. The clinical and surgical characteristics of the patients in the two groups were similar. The interven-tion group received 2 mg of vitamin C intravenously, the night before surgery. This drug followed by 500 mg, twice a day for five days after surgery. On the other hand patients in the control group received placebo (normal saline intravenously). After operation two groups were compared regarding Important outcomes such as postoperative arrhythmia, ICU stay and hospital stay. Results: One hundred eighteen men and fifty two women with a mean age of 59.1±9.8 years were enrolled in the study in two vitamin C and placebo groups (each consisting of 85 patients). The incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation was 12.9% in the vita-min C group and 29.4% in the control group (P=0.009). ICU stay in the vitamin C group were 2.5±1.4 days versus 3.0±1.6 days in controls (P=0.035) and hospital stay in the vitamin C group were 6.6±1.5 days versus 8.2±2.3 days in controls (P<0.001). Conclusion: Vitamin C is relatively safe, inexpensive, well tolerated and has a low complication. According to the 44% reduction in the incidence of atrial fibrillation in vitamin C patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery, this drug can be prescribed as a prophylaxis for prevention of post-CABG atrial fibrillation

Low dose Colchicine in prevention of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass graft: a double blind clinical trial

Background: The occurrence of Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is linked to an increased inflam-matory response after cardiac surgery that is significantly decreased by anti-inflammatory treatments. The present study aimed at administrating Colchicine as a way to reduce the incidence of post- Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) atrial fibrillation. Methods: In this double-blind, parallel clinical trial, 216 patients with coronary artery disease who underwent CABG surgery, by using a table of random numbers are divided into intervention and control groups to receive placebo or Colchicine. The clinical and surgical characteristics of the patients in two groups were similar. The intervention group received 1.0 mg of Colchicine tab, the night before surgery and on the morning of surgery. This drug followed by 0.5 mg twice a day for five days after surgery. On the other hand patients in the control group received only placebo (ineffective pill with similar size to Colchicine). After operation two groups were compared regarding important outcomes such as postoperative arrhythmia, ICU stay and hospital stay. The data were assessed using SPSS software (version 17) and t-test and 2 statistical tests. Results: One hundred fifty six men and sixty women with a mean age of 59.9±9.3 years were enrolled in the study in two Colchicine and placebo groups (each consisting of 108 patients). The incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation was 14.8% in the Col-chicine group and 30.6% in the control group (P= 0.006). ICU stay in the Colchicine group were 2.4±1.3 days versus 3.1±1.5 days in controls (P< 0.001) and hospital stay in the Colchicine group were 6.6±1.5 days versus 8.1±2.0 days in controls (P< 0.001). Conclusion: Colchicine is an anti-inflammatory medication and has very few side effects at low doses. According to the 48% reduction in the incidence of atrial fibrillation in Colchicine patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery, this drug can be prescribed as a prophylaxis for prevention of post-CABG atrial fibrillation

Bioreactor cultivation condition for engineered bone tissue: Effect of various bioreactor designs on extra cellular matrix synthesis

Dynamic-based systems are bio-designed in order to mimic the micro-environments of the bone tissue. There is limited direct comparison between perfusion and perfusion-rotation forces in designing a bioreactor. Hence, in current study, we aimed to compare given bioreactors for bone regeneration. Two types of bioreactors including rotating & perfusion and perfusion bioreactors were designed. Mesenchymal stem cells derived from buccal fat pad were loaded on a gelatin/β-Tricalcium phosphate scaffold. Cell-scaffold constructs were subjected to different treatment condition and place in either of the bioreactors. Effect of different dynamic conditions on cellular behavior including cell proliferation, cell adhesion, and osteogenic differentiation were assessed. Osteogenic assessment of scaffolds after 24 days revealed that rotating & perfusion bioreactor led to significantly higher expression of OCN and RUNX2 genes and also greater amount of ALP and collagen I protein production compared to static groups and perfusion bioreactor. Observation of cellular sheets which filled the scaffold porosities in SEM images, approved the better cell responses to rotating & perfusion forces of the bioreactor. The outcomes demonstrated that rotating & perfusion bioreactor action on bone regeneration is much preferable than perfusion bioreactor. Therefore, it seems that exertion of multi-stimuli is more effective for bone engineering

Bioreactor cultivation condition for engineered bone tissue: Effect of various bioreactor designs on extra cellular matrix synthesis

Dynamic-based systems are bio-designed in order to mimic the micro-environments of the bone tissue. There is limited direct comparison between perfusion and perfusion-rotation forces in designing a bioreactor. Hence, in current study, we aimed to compare given bioreactors for bone regeneration. Two types of bioreactors including rotating & perfusion and perfusion bioreactors were designed. Mesenchymal stem cells derived from buccal fat pad were loaded on a gelatin/β-Tricalcium phosphate scaffold. Cell-scaffold constructs were subjected to different treatment condition and place in either of the bioreactors. Effect of different dynamic conditions on cellular behavior including cell proliferation, cell adhesion, and osteogenic differentiation were assessed. Osteogenic assessment of scaffolds after 24 days revealed that rotating & perfusion bioreactor led to significantly higher expression of OCN and RUNX2 genes and also greater amount of ALP and collagen I protein production compared to static groups and perfusion bioreactor. Observation of cellular sheets which filled the scaffold porosities in SEM images, approved the better cell responses to rotating & perfusion forces of the bioreactor. The outcomes demonstrated that rotating & perfusion bioreactor action on bone regeneration is much preferable than perfusion bioreactor. Therefore, it seems that exertion of multi-stimuli is more effective for bone engineering

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p