Min(d)ing the President: A text analytic approach to measuring tax news

We propose a novel text-analytic approach for incorporating textual information into structural economic models and apply this to study the effects of tax news. We first develop a novel semi-supervised two-step topic model that automatically extracts specific information regarding future tax policy changes from text. We also propose an approach for transforming such textual information into an economically meaningful time series to be included in a structural econometric model as variable of interest or instrument. We apply our method to study the effects of fiscal foresight, in particular the informational content in speeches of the U.S. president about future tax reforms, and find that our semi-supervised topic model can successfully extract information about the direction of tax changes. The extracted information predicts (exogenous) future tax changes and contains signals that are not present in previously considered (narrative) measures of (exogenous) tax changes. We find that tax news triggers a significant yet delayed response in output

Computational Complexity and Parallelization in Bayesian Econometric Analysis

Challenging statements have appeared in recent years in the literature on advances in computational procedures.[...

Bayesian Analysis of Instrumental Variable Models: Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo

We discuss Bayesian inferential procedures within the family of instrumental variables regression models and focus on two issues: existence conditions for posterior moments of the parameters of interest under a flat prior and the potential of Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approaches for efficient evaluation of such possibly highly non-elliptical posteriors. We show that, for the general case of m endogenous variables under a flat prior, posterior moments of order r exist for the coefficients reflecting the endogenous regressors' effect on the dependent variable, if the number of instruments is greater than m +r, even though there is an issue of local non-identification that causes non-elliptical shapes of the posterior. This stresses the need for efficient Monte Carlo integration methods. We introduce an extension of DMC that incorporates an acceptance-rejection sampling step within DMC. This Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo (ARDMC) method has the attractive property that the generated random drawings are independent, which greatly helps the fast convergence of simulation results, and which facilitates the evaluation of the numerical accuracy. The speed of ARDMC can be easily further improved by making use of parallelized computation using multiple core machines or computer clusters. We note that ARDMC is an analogue to the well-known "Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs" sampling in the sense that one 'more difficult' step is used within an 'easier' simulation method. We compare the ARDMC approach with the Gibbs sampler using simulated data and two empirical data sets, involving the settler mortality instrument of Acemoglu et al. (2001) and father's education's instrument used by Hoogerheide et al. (2012a). Even without making use of parallelized computation, an efficiency gain is observed both under strong and weak instruments, where the gain can be enormous in the latter case

Deep Clinical Phenotyping of Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders Using Data-Driven Methods:Marching towards Precision Psychiatry

Heterogeneity is the main challenge in the traditional classification of mental disorders, including schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD). This can be partly attributed to the absence of objective diagnostic criteria and the multidimensional nature of symptoms and their associated factors. This article provides an overview of findings from the Genetic Risk and Outcome of Psychosis (GROUP) cohort study on the deep clinical phenotyping of schizophrenia spectrum disorders targeting positive and negative symptoms, cognitive impairments and psychosocial functioning. Three to four latent subtypes of positive and negative symptoms were identified in patients, siblings and controls, whereas four to six latent cognitive subtypes were identified. Five latent subtypes of psychosocial function—multidimensional social inclusion and premorbid adjustment—were also identified in patients. We discovered that the identified subtypes had mixed profiles and exhibited stable, deteriorating, relapsing and ameliorating longitudinal courses over time. Baseline positive and negative symptoms, premorbid adjustment, psychotic-like experiences, health-related quality of life and PRSSCZ were found to be the strong predictors of the identified subtypes. Our findings are comprehensive, novel and of clinical interest for precisely identifying high-risk population groups, patients with good or poor disease prognosis and the selection of optimal intervention, ultimately fostering precision psychiatry by tackling diagnostic and treatment selection challenges pertaining to heterogeneity.</p

Mind(d)ing the President: A text analytic approach to measuring tax news

This data set contains supplementary materials for "Mind(d)ing the President: A text analytic approach to measuring tax news". It consists of the estimation results of the topic model and the estimated tax news measures. Folder LDA contains data and code for replicating the topic modelling results and figures. Folder TaxNews contains data and code for replicating the econometric analysis and figures

Deep Clinical Phenotyping of Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders Using Data-Driven Methods: Marching towards Precision Psychiatry

Heterogeneity is the main challenge in the traditional classification of mental disorders, including schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD). This can be partly attributed to the absence of objective diagnostic criteria and the multidimensional nature of symptoms and their associated factors. This article provides an overview of findings from the Genetic Risk and Outcome of Psychosis (GROUP) cohort study on the deep clinical phenotyping of schizophrenia spectrum disorders targeting positive and negative symptoms, cognitive impairments and psychosocial functioning. Three to four latent subtypes of positive and negative symptoms were identified in patients, siblings and controls, whereas four to six latent cognitive subtypes were identified. Five latent subtypes of psychosocial function—multidimensional social inclusion and premorbid adjustment—were also identified in patients. We discovered that the identified subtypes had mixed profiles and exhibited stable, deteriorating, relapsing and ameliorating longitudinal courses over time. Baseline positive and negative symptoms, premorbid adjustment, psychotic-like experiences, health-related quality of life and PRSSCZ were found to be the strong predictors of the identified subtypes. Our findings are comprehensive, novel and of clinical interest for precisely identifying high-risk population groups, patients with good or poor disease prognosis and the selection of optimal intervention, ultimately fostering precision psychiatry by tackling diagnostic and treatment selection challenges pertaining to heterogeneity