Environmental Correlation Structure and Ecological Niche Model Projections

This is the published version

Ecological Niche Modeling of Francisella tularensis Subspecies and Clades in the United States

Two subspecies of Francisella tularensis are recognized: F. tularensis subsp. tularensis (type A) and F. tularensis subsp. holartica (type B). Type A has been subdivided further into A1a, A1b, and A2, which differ geographically and clinically. The aim of this work was to determine whether or not differences among subspecies and clades translate into distinct ecological niches. We used 223 isolates from humans and wildlife representing all six genotypes (type A, B, A1, A2, A1a, or A1b). Ecological-niche models were built independently for each genotype, using the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction. The resulting models were compared using a non-parametric multivariate analysis-of-variance method. A1 and A2 are ecologically distinct, supporting the previously observed geographic division, whereas ecological niches for types A and B overlapped notably but A1a and A1b displayed no appreciable differences in their ecological niches

Assessing Monkeypox Virus Prevalence in Small Mammals at the Human-Animal Interface in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

During 2012, 2013 and 2015, we collected small mammals within 25 km of the town of Boende in Tshuapa Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in this area is unknown; however, cases of human infection were previously confirmed near these collection sites. Samples were collected from 353 mammals (rodents, shrews, pangolins, elephant shrews, a potamogale, and a hyrax). Some rodents and shrews were captured from houses where human monkeypox cases have recently been identified, but most were trapped in forests and agricultural areas near villages. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to assess evidence of MPXV infection and other Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infections in these small mammals. Seven (2.0%) of these animal samples were found to be anti-orthopoxvirus immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody positive (six rodents: two Funisciurus spp.; one Graphiurus lorraineus; one Cricetomys emini; one Heliosciurus sp.; one Oenomys hypoxanthus, and one elephant shrew Petrodromus tetradactylus); no individuals were found positive in PCR-based assays. These results suggest that a variety of animals can be infected with OPXVs, and that epidemiology studies and educational campaigns should focus on animals that people are regularly contacting, including larger rodents used as protein sources

Climate Change Effects on Plague and Tularemia in the United States

Plague and tularemia are serious zoonotic diseases endemic to North America. We evaluated spatial patterns in their transmission in view of changing climates. First, we tested whether observed shifts since the 1960s are consistent with expected patterns of shift given known climate changes over that period. Then, we used general circulation model results summarizing global patterns of changing climates into the future to forecast likely shifts in patterns of transmission over the next 50 years. The results indicate that these diseases are indeed shifting in accord with patterns of climatic shift, but that overall geographic shifts will likely be subtle, with some northward movement of southern limits and possibly northward movement of northern limits as well