The Structure of Foreign Funding and Critical Deficit in the Economy of Emerging Countries

The are some minimal surpluses of international financial flows (on the capital and reserve account) that are needed to support critical payment deficit at the previous level in the next period. If the amount of critical deficits is in excess over the total accessible surplus of international capital flows, it inevitably leads to a violent and forced correction of the current account and serious disturbances of the growth process. The breakdown of financing of payment deficit in emerging economies, partly may result from weaknesses of operations of regulating institutions that do not have sufficient influence on behaviours and attitudes of subjects participating in foreign capital turnovers. It requires however an appropriate recognition of the strength and nature of the reaction and behaviours of national subjects interacting with a strategy of domestic regulatory institutions

Усиление внешнего неравновесия стран-должников в условиях глобальной мобильности капитала

The paper includes an analysis of some factors conducing to the rise in the external disequilibrium of domestic economy, such as: debt crisis, fluctuation in capital flows, and the decreasing predictability of international solvency. None of these factors considered separately can explain well the causes of the rising external indebtness. Only an integrated analysis of all those interdependent factors allows to better understand the escalation of external imbalance in individual countries. The knowledge of these processes is the condition of the effectiveness of the adjustment attempts aimed at stabilizing capital flows and hampering the increase in external disequilibrium. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the author describes the processes and dependencies underlying fi scal expansion that lead to the emergence of budget deficits and to the increase of indebtness. The author explains the interaction between the major instruments of expansionary fi scal policy that result in the increase in current deficits and in the weakening of external balance. A separate part the analysis is devoted to the description of behavioral factors shaping the attitudes and sentiments of the participants of financial markets, which determine their investment activity. The mechanism of the influence of behavioral factors is hidden, strongly stochastic, and its effects are difficult to be observed and foreseen. However, the experience of CEE countries suggests that this mechanism generates multiple signals indicating the appearance of a shock correction to the balance of payments as result of the increasing budgetary deficit and of the critical size of public debts.Статья содержит анализ факторов, которые способствуют росту внешнего неравновесия отечественной экономики, таких как: кризис задолженности, колебания изменчивостифинансовых потоков и уменьшающаяся надежность международной платежеспособности. Ни один из этих факторов, анализируемый отдельно, не объясняет причин усиления внешнего неравновесия, и только их исследование в интегральной связи позволяет лучше понять процессы эскалации внешнего неравновесия в отдельных странах. Познание этих процессов является условиемэффективности предпринимаемых действий по адаптации, нацеленных на стабилизацию потоков капитала и сдерживание роста внешнего неравновесия. На основе теоретического анализа были описаны процессы и взаимозависимости, лежащие в основе фискальной экспансии, ведущие к появлению бюджетных дефицитов и росту задолженности отечественной экономики. Одновременно была дана характеристика связей (интеракций)и способа воздействия главных инструментов экспансивной фискальной политики на ход международных операций, результатом которых является увеличение текущих дефицитов и ослабление внешнего равновесия. Отдельной частью анализа является описание поведенческих факторов, формирующих поведение и настроение участников финансовых рынков, определяющих их инвестиционную активность. Механизм воздействия поведенческих факторов является скрытым, сильно стохастическим, в результате чего наблюдать и предугадать его эффекты. Опыт стран центральной и восточной Европыуказывает однако, что он дает многочисленные сигналы, извещающие о появлении шоковой корректировки платежного баланса в ответ на растущее неравновесие бюджета и критическую задолженность публичных финансов

Institutional and Functional Foundations of Foreign Trade

The author presents the conception of using foreign trade turnovers as well as the main elements and principles of the system of foreign trade in conditions of Poland's economy. At the beginning the author is analizing means of using foreign trade in a planning economy in short and long terms. Then he passes over to the basic problem: to the concept of a construction of the mechanism of foreign trade in the system of our economy. The essential elements of actual mechanism of foreign trade are as follows: 1) concentration of almost all decisions concerning the economic foreign transaction on the central level, 2) choice of the commodity structure of foreign trade on the basic calculation of the central plan, 3) institutional and economic separation of the foreign trade from production, 4) autonomous character of the system of home market prices in regard to the world market prices, 5) sovereign of a monetary system and the passive function of the rate of exchange. The last part of this article consists of analyzing directions of the evolution of the mechanism of foreign trade. The author presents here these reforms mainly, which in result of the sharp criticism of the previous system consist of a certain degree of decentralization of management of foreign trade. The deviations from the assumptions of this model concerning here are: activity of the calculation enterprises and incentives at the level of the enterprise, decentralization of certain decisions in foreign trade, and incentival action of prices system in the sphere of the plan fulfillment.Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/201

ESTIMATION OF FUNDAMENTAL MACRO-ECONOMIC INFLUENCES ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE

A simplified micro-economic model is analysed and developed in order to identify and quantify the strong and weak influences of fundamental macro-economic relations (such as savings rates and domestic investments) and their main determinants on the current account balance. The influence mechanisms of those macro-economic relations are generally described by cause-effect relations determining the explanatory variables in regression equations constituting a development of a simplified theoretical model. The theoretical model of the regression function estimation is based on different descriptions of the influence mechanisms of the key factors determining the current account balance and a differently outlined hierarchy of the economic factors that influence the evolutions of the analysed macro-economic relations such as savings and domestic investments measured against the GDR Empirical research carried out worldwide and methodological recommendations (taken from the literature on international business theory) serve as justification of the author’s selection of the potential determinants of the current account balance

ESTIMATION OF FUNDAMENTAL MACRO-ECONOMIC INFLUENCES ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE

A simplified micro-economic model is analysed and developed in order to identify and quantify the strong and weak influences of fundamental macro-economic relations (such as savings rates and domestic investments) and their main determinants on the current account balance. The influence mechanisms of those macro-economic relations are generally described by cause-effect relations determining the explanatory variables in regression equations constituting a development of a simplified theoretical model. The theoretical model of the regression function estimation is based on different descriptions of the influence mechanisms of the key factors determining the current account balance and a differently outlined hierarchy of the economic factors that influence the evolutions of the analysed macro-economic relations such as savings and domestic investments measured against the GDR Empirical research carried out worldwide and methodological recommendations (taken from the literature on international business theory) serve as justification of the author’s selection of the potential determinants of the current account balance

Integration strategy of socialist countries within the CMEA

The subject-matter of the article is the model of strategic behaviour of socialist economy within the CMEA. It has been assumed that the purpose of strategic activity of each of the member-states is the attainment of optimum position of its national economy in the international division of labour within the CMEA. The choice of integration strategy is conditioned by many external (international division of labour and institutional integration structures) and internal factors. In the CMEA, a prevailing tendency with respect to integration is the extrapolation of hitherto existing trends, leading to a very limited perception of integration. Besides,, usually a very narrow group of state authorities understands, strategic prognoses and interprets correctly the situation. The outcome of activity presented in the model are three alternative types of reaction of economy in the integrational surrounding: defensive, adaptational and creative. In the historical perspective, the economies of the CMEA countries have not revealed any significant interest in any other response to integrational processes than the defensive reaction.Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/201

The role of industry in economies of European socialist states

The article contains the results of research on structural changes in industry of 7 European CMEA countries in years 1970 -1985 in connection with the respective levels of their economic development, In order to observe the process of industrial growth of those countries the following problems were subject to a detailed analysis: — the comparative review of the trend of correlation between the participation of industry in national economy and the level of national income per one employee ; — the shaping on an international scale of differentiation of the growth of outlays and the productivity of production factors engaged in industries of particular CMEA member states; — the degree of participation of industries of particular CMEA member states in the international division of labour, with attention paid to its time and spatial diversification. The analysis proved the empirical dependence of the development of industries of European CMEA countries on their national income levels per one employee and showed significant similarities among respective countries as to, the above dependence in years 1970 -1975. The industrial growth trends in most of European CMEA countriested gradually decreased, with the set-back and stabilization of participation of industry in national economy most evident in countries with the lowest level of national income per one employee (GDR, Czechoslovakia). Besides, in years 1970-1985 a considerable break in the continuity of the process of eliminating differences in the levels of economic growth took place. In effect, in years 1981 -1985 some countries (especially Poland and Hungary) were more backward in their industrial growth than others. Although the indexes of dynamics of industrial export and import in particular European CMEA countries showed favourable tendencies, their comparison with the period of 1960 -1970 reveals, a set-back in growth. In effect, both in particular countries as well as in the CMEA as a whole, the participation of industrial export and import in the world market decreases.Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/201

Institutional and Functional Foundations of Foreign Trade

The author presents the conception of using foreign trade turnovers as well as the main elements and principles of the system of foreign trade in conditions of Poland's economy. At the beginning the author is analizing means of using foreign trade in a planning economy in short and long terms. Then he passes over to the basic problem: to the concept of a construction of the mechanism of foreign trade in the system of our economy. The essential elements of actual mechanism of foreign trade are as follows: 1) concentration of almost all decisions concerning the economic foreign transaction on the central level, 2) choice of the commodity structure of foreign trade on the basic calculation of the central plan, 3) institutional and economic separation of the foreign trade from production, 4) autonomous character of the system of home market prices in regard to the world market prices, 5) sovereign of a monetary system and the passive function of the rate of exchange. The last part of this article consists of analyzing directions of the evolution of the mechanism of foreign trade. The author presents here these reforms mainly, which in result of the sharp criticism of the previous system consist of a certain degree of decentralization of management of foreign trade. The deviations from the assumptions of this model concerning here are: activity of the calculation enterprises and incentives at the level of the enterprise, decentralization of certain decisions in foreign trade, and incentival action of prices system in the sphere of the plan fulfillment.Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/201

The Structure of Foreign Funding and Critical Deficit in the Economy of Emerging Countries

The are some minimal surpluses of international financial flows (on the capital and reserve account) that are needed to support critical payment deficit at the previous level in the next period. If the amount of critical deficits is in excess over the total accessible surplus of international capital flows, it inevitably leads to a violent and forced correction of the current account and serious disturbances of the growth process. The breakdown of financing of payment deficit in emerging economies, partly may result from weaknesses of operations of regulating institutions that do not have sufficient influence on behaviours and attitudes of subjects participating in foreign capital turnovers. It requires however an appropriate recognition of the strength and nature of the reaction and behaviours of national subjects interacting with a strategy of domestic regulatory institutions

Theoretical Concept of Criteria Regarding International Specialization

Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/201