Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Teaching / Learning Foreign Languages in Yemen. Study of Mistakes and Challenges Encountered by Yemeni College Students Learning the French Language; Based on Analysis of Written Production

La présente étude consiste à étudier la compétence écrite chez les étudiants de français à l’université de Taëz, au Yémen, par le biais de l’analyse des erreurs dans les productions écrites recueillies dans le cadre d’un corpus spécial élaboré pour cet effet. Bien que le repérage des erreurs d’expression écrite puisse paraître une opération simple et systématique, l’appréhension des mécanismes de production de ces erreurs et l’analyse de leurs véritables raisons constituent la partie immergée de l’iceberg. Pour mener à bien cette investigation, il a fallu établir des catégories opérationnelles dans lesquelles pourront s’inscrire les erreurs significatives relevées, en vue d’une analyse plus étayée. Des concepts opératoires inspirés des travaux didactiques de plusieurs auteurs nous ont permis de mieux cerner les rouages du processus enseignement/apprentissage du français et d’élargir notre perspective de recherche des racines des erreurs tant dans les stratégies d’auto-apprentissage mises en oeuvre par les apprenants eux-mêmes, que dans les conditions du déroulement de l’enseignement dispensé au département de français. Des difficultés grammaticales, syntaxiques, lexicales inhérentes à la langue française du point de vue d’un apprenant yéménite, jusqu’aux problèmes d’inattention, de manque de motivation, de ressources documentaires ou d’exposition à la langue française, en passant par le mode de fonctionnement des cours et les modalités des contrôles, nous découvrons, durant toutes ces étapes de parcours, les différentes sources des difficultés constatées. Lesquelles permettent, d’une part, l’explication du phénomène des erreurs dans la situation particulière qui est celle des étudiants yéménites, et d’autre part, la conception de solutions adéquates susceptibles de remédier à ces erreurs de façon radicale et non seulement symptomatique. Aussi, espérons-nous attirer l’attention de tous les protagonistes impliqués dans le processus didactique, sur les problèmes réels auxquels se heurtent l’étudiant yéménite désireux d’apprendre cette langue ainsi que sur les meilleures approches possibles pour entreprendre les réformes et les traitements nécessaires.La présente étude consiste à étudier la compétence écrite chez les étudiants de français à l’université de Taëz, au Yémen, par le biais de l’analyse des erreurs dans les productions écrites recueillies dans le cadre d’un corpus spécial élaboré pour cet effet. Bien que le repérage des erreurs d’expression écrite puisse paraître une opération simple et systématique, l’appréhension des mécanismes de production de ces erreurs et l’analyse de leurs véritables raisons constituent la partie immergée de l’iceberg. Pour mener à bien cette investigation, il a fallu établir des catégories opérationnelles dans lesquelles pourront s’inscrire les erreurs significatives relevées, en vue d’une analyse plus étayée. Des concepts opératoires inspirés des travaux didactiques de plusieurs auteurs nous ont permis de mieux cerner les rouages du processus enseignement/apprentissage du français et d’élargir notre perspective de recherche des racines des erreurs tant dans les stratégies d’auto-apprentissage mises en œuvre par les apprenants eux-mêmes, que dans les conditions du déroulement de l’enseignement dispensé au département de français. Des difficultés grammaticales, syntaxiques, lexicales inhérentes à la langue française du point de vue d’un apprenant yéménite, jusqu’aux problèmes d’inattention, de manque de motivation, de ressources documentaires ou d’exposition à la langue française, en passant par le mode de fonctionnement des cours et les modalités des contrôles, nous découvrons, durant toutes ces étapes de parcours, les différentes sources des difficultés constatées. Lesquelles permettent, d’une part, l’explication du phénomène des erreurs dans la situation particulière qui est celle des étudiants yéménites, et d’autre part, la conception de solutions adéquates susceptibles de remédier à ces erreurs de façon radicale et non seulement symptomatique. Aussi, espérons-nous attirer l’attention de tous les protagonistes impliqués dans le processus didactique, sur les problèmes réels auxquels se heurtent l’étudiant yéménite désireux d’apprendre cette langue ainsi que sur les meilleures approches possibles pour entreprendre les réformes et les traitements nécessaires

The influence of bone quality on radiological outcome in 50 consecutive acetabular fractures treated with a pre-contoured anatomic suprapectineal plate

Purpose!#!To investigate the range of indications of an anatomical-preshaped three-dimensional suprapectineal plate and to assess the impact of the bone mass density on radiologic outcomes in different types of acetabular fractures.!##!Patients and methods!#!A consecutive case series of 50 acetabular fractures (patient age 69 ± 23 years) treated with suprapectineal anatomic plates were analyzed in a retrospective study. The analysis included: Mechanism of injury, fracture pattern, surgical approach, need for additional total hip arthroplasty, intra- or postoperative complications, as well as bone mass density and radiological outcome on postoperative computed tomography.!##!Results!#!Most frequently, anterior column fracture patterns with and without hemitransverse components as well as associated two column fractures were encountered. The anterior intrapelvic approach (AIP) was used in 98% (49/50) of the cases as primary approach with additional utilization of the first window of the ilioinguinal approach in 13/50 cases (26%). Determination of bone density revealed impaired bone quality in 70% (31/44). Postoperative steps and gaps were significantly greater in this subgroup (p < 0.05). Fracture reduction quality for postoperative steps revealed anatomic results in 92% if the bone quality was normal and in 46% if impaired (p < 0.05). In seven cases (14%), the plate was utilized in combination with acute primary arthroplasty.!##!Conclusion!#!A preshaped suprapectineal plate provides good radiological outcomes in a variety of indications in a predominantly geriatric cohort. Impaired bone quality has a significantly higher risk of poor reduction results. In cases with extensive joint destruction, the combination with total hip arthroplasty was a valuable option

PCovNet: A presymptomatic COVID-19 detection framework using deep learning model using wearables data

While the advanced diagnostic tools and healthcare management protocols have been struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, the spread of the contagious viral pathogen before the symptom onset acted as the Achilles' heel. Although reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been widely used for COVID-19 diagnosis, they are hardly administered before any visible symptom, which provokes rapid transmission. This study proposes PCovNet, a Long Short-term Memory Variational Autoencoder (LSTM-VAE)-based anomaly detection framework, to detect COVID-19 infection in the presymptomatic stage from the Resting Heart Rate (RHR) derived from the wearable devices, i.e., smartwatch or fitness tracker. The framework was trained and evaluated in two configurations on a publicly available wearable device dataset consisting of 25 COVID-positive individuals in the span of four months including their COVID-19 infection phase. The first configuration of the framework detected RHR abnormality with average Precision, Recall, and F-beta scores of 0.946, 0.234, and 0.918, respectively. However, the second configuration detected aberrant RHR in 100% of the subjects (25 out of 25) during the infectious period. Moreover, 80% of the subjects (20 out of 25) were detected during the presymptomatic stage. These findings prove the feasibility of using wearable devices with such a deep learning framework as a secondary diagnosis tool to circumvent the presymptomatic COVID-19 detection problem. 2022 Elsevier LtdThis work was supported by the Qatar National Research Grant: UREP28-144-3-046. The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors.Scopu

Do we need local guidelines for the diagnosis and management of immune thrombocytopenia in Iraq?

AIMS: Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), also known as immune thrombocytopenic purpura, is an autoimmune disorder characterized by a low platelet count in the blood. This study aimed to assess the health infrastructure in Iraq regarding the diagnosis and management of patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), with a focus on the use of guidelines in ITP management. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study carried out between October and November 2022 to assess ITP diagnosis, management, and the use of guidelines in 18 governorates in Iraq. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Invited to this study were 79 hematologists who were registered in the Iraqi Society of Hematology and who practiced in the 18 governorates. Out of the 79 hematologists, 65 participated in this survey. Data were collected using a questionnaire. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: IBM SPSS 28 for Windows was used for the analysis and Microsoft Excel was used for creating the graphs. Descriptive statistics were presented in the form of numbers and percentages as all variables were categorical. RESULTS: The most requested routine tests were manual assessment of platelet count (83.1%), blood film (98.5%), virology screen (90.9%), connective tissue screen (85.9%), and prothrombin time and partial thromboplastin time (78.5%). More than 80% of the hematologists request bone marrow aspiration for the patients who have no response to the first-line treatment. Only the genetic test and the quantitative immunoglobulin level testing were available in the private sector both by (100%), while the other tests were available in both sectors. More than 85% treat the patients as outpatients. Active bleeding, not platelet count, was the indication for hospitalization for 60% of the hematologists. Corticosteroids were chosen as the first choice as initial treatment by (93.8%), intravenous immunoglobulin the second choice by (6.2%). In the second-line treatment, rituximab was chosen as the first choice by (75.3%), and eltrombopag as the second choice (65%). Only 83% of the hematologists referred to a guideline, and the American Society of Hematology guideline was the most referred to. CONCLUSIONS: These results showed the need to establish national guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Immune Thrombocytopenia in Iraq to be able to effectively treat the laboratory findings and physical symptoms of ITP in addition to address the patient's emotional and mental health needs

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022

Age-standardized CVD mortality rates by regionranged from 73.6 per 100,000 in High-income Asia Pacific to432.3 per 100,000 in Eastern Europe in 2022. Global CVDmortality decreased by 34.9% from 1990 to 2022. Ischemicheart disease had the highest global age-standardized DALYsof all diseases at 2,275.9 per 100,000. Intracerebralhemorrhage and ischemic stroke were the next highest CVDcauses for age-standardized DALYs. Age-standardized CVDprevalence ranged from 5,881.0 per 100,000 in South Asia to11,342.6 per 100,000 in Central Asia. High systolic bloodpressure accounted for the largest number of attributableage-standardized CVD DALYs at 2,564.9 per 100,000globally. Of all risks, household air pollution from solid fuelshad the largest change in attributable age-standardizedDALYs from 1990 to 2022 with a 65.1% decrease

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation