Importance of Tracking COVID-19 Data from Official Sources for Short-Term Forecasting of Cases and Deaths

Purpose: During the COVID-19 outbreak, governments, scientists, health workers, and numerous people worked on strategies or solutions for halting disease propagation. Unfortunately, the need for monitoring is steeply increasing, and restrictive actions are currently unavoidable. Due to the lack of epidemiological data and constantly changing numbers, constructing less error-prone predictive models and reliable mathematical models for the near future will help make better legal actions and prevention strategies. Materials and Methods: In this study, daily data from eleven countries between 21/01/2020-02/05/2020 and 21/01/2020-17/06/2020 were used to forecast the number of future COVID-19 events by using different forecasting models. Best fit models were chosen after analysis with ARIMA, Brown’s LES, and Holt’s LES models based on MAPE values. Results: The study showed the least error-prone best-fit models for short-term future predictions by analyzing two datasets and demonstrated that models changed after data updates among the selected countries. Investigation of the data from eleven countries, USA, Turkey, Brazil, and Russia analysis showed that updating data alters the model selection resulting in changes in the predictions. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that using more than one statistical model has superiority over the current approaches, and fluctuations in the numbers should be considered when using the data to construct mathematical models and create future predictions for the management of the already complicated and exhausting COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, policies and restrictions against COVID-19 spread might be more successful after considering that adjusted predictions for providing more accurate results

SEREBRAL DEV KİST HİDATİK

Human hydatid disease is endemic in Turkey and brain hydatosis is a childhood disease. The hydatid cysts of the brain are mostly single and 18% of the cases have another visceral involvement. The cysts may rarely reach to gigantic sizes in children. Here, we report a case of gigantic hydatid cyst of the brain in a seven years old boy who presented with signs of increased intracranial pressure. He was successfully operated with Dowling's surgical technique and he is still being followed up with no neurologic sequel. İnsan hidatik hastalığı Türkiye'de endemik olup, beyin hidatozisi çocukluk çağının hastalığıdır. Beyin hidatik kistleri sıklıkla tek olup vakaların %18'inde diğer viseral organlarda tutulum mevcuttur. Kistler çocukluk çağında nadiren çok büyük boyutlara ulaşmaktadır. Bu yazıda artmış kafa içi basıncı bulguları ile başvuran ve beyinde devasal boyutlarda hidatik kisti saptanan yedi yaşında erkek bir olgu sunulmaktadır. Hasta başarıyla Dowling's cerrahi tekniği ile opere edilmiş olup halen sekelsiz olarak takip edilmektedir

The effect of low molecular weight heparin on salvaging the zone of stasis in an experimental burn model

Background/aim: Multiple zones of injuries are formed after burns, consisting of a zone of coagulative necrosis, a zone of hyperemia, and a zone of stasis, in which progressive microcirculatory thrombosis leads to degeneration and deepening of the wound. We used an experimental rat comb burn model to test the hypothesis that use of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) may save the zone of stasis. Materials and methods: Adult female rats were randomly divided two groups: the LMWH group (n = 8) rats received subcutaneous LMWH injections, while the saline group (n = 8) rats were injected with the same volume of saline solution by the same route. The zone of stasis was evaluated macroscopically and histologically, and functional capillary density was evaluated. Results: Histological assessments revealed higher macrophage numbers and PML density, fibroblast proliferation, and angiogenesis in the LMWH group than in the saline group. Functional capillary density measurement in the stasis zones revealed no significant difference between the two groups in the first 4 days, although a significant difference in favor of the LMW group was observed in the last 3 days. Conclusion: The results of this experimental study show that LMWH is effective in saving the zone of stasis

Odnos krimsko-kongoanske hemoragijske groznice i klime: utječe li klima na broj ovih bolesnika?

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne viral zoonosis. The incidence of zoonotic diseases has been shown to be affected by climatic factors. In this study, we evaluated patients endemic to the CCHF region and examined the relationship between the number of patients and climatic properties of the region where they lived. The study included 548 CCHF patients. Along with the patient demographic and clinical characteristics, we recorded temperature, humidity and precipitation in the places where they lived at the time of their admission to the hospital. In addition to temperature, humidity and precipitation at the time of patient admission, these values were assessed at one month and three months prior to admission. The relationship between the number of patients and the above-mentioned values was examined. Humidity at the time of and one month prior to hospital admission, and precipitation three months prior to hospital admission were found to affect the number of patients admitted to the hospital for CCHF. In conclusion, climate appeared to affect the number of CCHF patients. We believe that the number of patients presenting to the hospital with CCHF could be predicted by taking into account climatic properties of the places where CCHF has been recorded, along with under-taking necessary measures.Krimsko-kongoanska hemoragijska groznica (KKHG) je virusna zoonoza koju prenose krpelji. Dokazano je da klimatski čimbenici utječu na incidenciju zoonotskih bolesti. U ovom smo istraživanju ispitivali bolesnike endemske za područje KKHG te odnos broja bolesnika i klimatskih svojstava područja u kojem oni žive. U istraživanje je bilo uključeno 548 bolesnika s KKHG. Uz demografske i kliničke značajke bolesnika bilježili smo temperaturu, vlagu i količinu padalina u mjestu gdje su bolesnici živjeli u vrijeme prijma u bolnicu. Uz vrijednosti temperature, vlage i količine padalina u vrijeme prijma bolesnika u bolnicu, vrijednosti ovih parametara procijenjene su za jedan mjesec i tri mjeseca prije prijma u bolnicu. Tada smo ispitali odnos broja bolesnika i gore spomenutih vrijednosti. Pokazalo se da razina vlage u vrijeme prijma i jedan mjesec prije prijma u bolnicu, kao i količina padalina tri mjeseca prije prijma u bolnicu utječu na broj bolesnika primljenih u bolnicu zbog KKHG. U zaključku, čini se da klima utječe na broj bolesnika s KKHG. Vjerujemo da bi se broj bolesnika koji dolaze u bolnicu zbog KKHG mogao predvidjeti uzimajući u obzir klimatska svojstva u mjestima gdje je zabilježena KKHG, a time bi se isto tako mogle poduzeti odgovarajuće mjere

A New Formulation For The Fundamental Period Of Reinforced Concrete Planar Shear Walls

The reinforced concrete shear wall system has become a popular structural component for lateral resistance in buildings and base shear of these structures has a vital effect on the earthquake induced lateral forces. The fundamental period of structures is used in most building codes to determine the lateral forces. However, accurate computation of period is not an easy task at the design stage. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the empirical easy-to-use equation for the calculation of fundamental periods of concrete planar shear walls. Genetic programming has been used to generate the proposed formula. Finite element analysis, were carried out for various shear walls having a variety of height and length and the results were used to develop the proposed formula. The outcomes of formula are compared with the results from equations in the seismic codes and finite element analysis. The comparison results indicate good agreement with finite element analysis and show better performance than codes

Investigation of anxiety levels of patients with chest pain admitted to emergency department

AbstractIntroductionWe aimed to investigate the demographical features, anxiety levels and clinical findings of the patients admitted to our Emergency department (ED) due to chest pain.MethodsPatients with chest pain older than 18 years were included into the study. Demographical features such as age, sex and education level, initial diagnosis in the ED, whether they were hospitalized or coronary intervention performed, were recorded. To determine the anxiety levels of the patients, State-trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) was performed.ResultsTwo-hundred and eight adult patients with chest pain were included into the study. We could not determine a relationship between STAI levels of patients according to demographical findings, however, STAI scores tended to decrease by age. Considering the education levels of the patients, it was determined that STAI scores of university graduates were higher than others. The STAI scores of patients discharged from the ED were higher than those hospitalized. When patients were compared according to whether coronary intervention (CI) was performed or not, it was determined that patients who did not require CI had higher STAI scores. When coronary lesion localization of the patients hospitalized was investigated, any relationship could not be determined.ConclusionIn this study, we determined that anxiety levels of the patients with chest pain do not correlate with the severity of the disease. Higher anxiety levels of patients discharged from ED when compared to those with ACS is a challenging problem for both ED physicians and cardiologists

The structural, optical and morphological properties of CaF2 thin films by using Thermionic Vacuum Arc (TVA)

In this study, calcium fluoride (CaF2) thin films have been prepared by Thermionic Vacuum Arc (TVA) technique on glass substrates. In this technique CaF2 thin films are produced by condensing the plasma of anode material generated in the TVA setup under high vacuum conditions on glass substrates. Crystal structures as well as optical and surface properties of CaF2 antireflective (AR) coated thin films were investigated. X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements showed that amorphous CaF2 thin films were formed. Optical and surface properties of CaF2 films have been studied based on optical transmittance, reflectance, refractive index and atomic force microscopy imaging (AFM). Our results also show that CaF2 coated samples exhibit lower reflectance (R). From our optical studies, we have observed that CaF2 thin films have high AR properties.TUBITAK (108M608); ESOGU Scientific Research Commission (200819045

Assessment of the Confidence of the Adhesive Remnant Index Score With Different Methods

Objective:The purpose of this in vitro study was to investigate the reliability of the adhesive remnant index (ARI) score system with different assessment methods and to test the compatibility of the estimators.Materials and Methods:Sixty-eight human premolars were used in this study. The premolar brackets (SmartClip, 3M Unitek, Monrovia, CA, USA) were bonded with a light cure adhesive (Transbond XT, 3M Unitek). Brackets were debonded using a Lloyd LRX testing machine (Lloyd Instruments Plc., Fareham, Hampshire, UK). Special image analysis software with ×20 magnification and naked-eye assessment methods were used to evaluate the adhesive remnant. Four different investigators scored the same samples according to a 4-point scale. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient was used to test the reliability of the estimator's scores. The Friedman test, followed by the Wilcoxon signed-ranks test, was used to investigate significant differences in the ARI scores between the different assessment methodsResults:The Kendall rank correlation coefficients revealed no significant difference between the scores assigned by the investigators in this study. However, the ARI scores were significantly different when the special image analysis program was used (p < 0.05).Conclusion:The reliability of the ARI scores increased when quantitative measurement methods were used