Inclusão, democracia e novo-desenvolvimentismo : um balanço histórico

Este trabalho analisa o processo do desenvolvimentismo brasileiro compreendido entre a fase clássica dos anos 1950 até a perspectiva atual do novo-desenvolvimentismo, privilegiando o papel e a função desempenhadas pelo tema da democracia e da inclusão distributiva em cada arranjo. Na primeira seção, analisa-se a constelação semântica que envolve os termos progresso e desenvolvimento, procurando separá-los do processo/projeto denominado desenvolvimentismo. Na segunda seção, discutem-se as fases e características centrais do velho e do novo-desenvolvimentismo brasileiro e a perspectiva de sua subdivisão em três ondas históricas, separadas pelo aspecto político democrático e pelo tema da redistribuição. Por último, apresentam-se algumas considerações sobre o novo-desenvolvimentismo em seu arranjo democrático-inclusivo.This paper analyzes the process of the Brazilian developmentalism between the classical phase of the 1950s to the current perspective of new developmentalism, emphasizing the role and function played by the theme of democracy and distributive inclusion in every arrangement. In the first section, it is analyzed the semantic constellation involving the terms progress and development, seeking to separate them from the process / project called developmentalism. In the second section, it is discussed the phases and the central features of the old and the new Brazilian developmentalism and the prospect of their subdivision into three historical waves, separated by the political democratic aspect and by the theme of redistribution. Finally it presents some considerations about the new developmentalism in its democratic-inclusive arrangement

Robust tests for time-invariant individual heterogeneity versus dynamic state dependence

We derive tests for persistent effects in a general linear dynamic panel data context. Two sources of persistent behavior are considered: time-invariant unobserved factors (captured by an individual random effect) and dynamic persistence or “state dependence” (captured by autoregressive behavior). We will use a maximum likelihood framework to derive a family of tests that help researchers learn whether persistence is due to individual heterogeneity, dynamic effect, or both. The proposed tests have power only in the direction they are designed to perform, that is, they are locally robust to the presence of alternative sources of persistence, and consequently, are able to identify which source of persistence is active. A Monte Carlo experiment is implemented to explore the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures. The tests are applied to a panel data series of real GDP growth for the period 1960–2005

Currency devaluations and beggar-my-neighbour penalties: evidence from the 1930s

The currency devaluations of the 1930s facilitated a faster recovery from the Great Depression in the countries depreciating, but their unilateral manner provoked retaliatory and discriminatory commercial policies abroad. This article explores the importance of the retaliatory motive in the imposition of trade barriers by gold bloc countries during the 1930s and its effects on trade. Relying on new and existing datasets on the introduction of quotas, tariffs, and bilateral trade costs, the quantification of the discriminatory response suggests that these countries imposed significant beggar‐my‐neighbour penalties. The penalties reduced trade to a similar degree that modern regional trade agreements foster trade. Furthermore, the analysis of contemporary newspapers reveals that the devaluations of the early 1930s triggered an Anglo‐French trade conflict marked by tit‐for‐tat protectionist policies. With regards to global trade, the unilateral currency depreciations came at a high price in political and economic terms. These costs must have necessarily reduced their benefit to the world as a whole