The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping.This work was supported by the Three Guineas Trust (A. M. Foley), Cambridge Econometrics (H. Pollitt and U. Chewpreecha), Conicyt (Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Gobierno de Chile) and the Ministerio de Energía, Gobierno de Chile (P. Salas), the EU Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement No 265170 ‘ER-MITAGE’ (N. Edwards and P. Holden) and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, fellowship number EP/K007254/1 (J.-F. Mercure).This is the final published version. It's also available from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004017#

Light echoes reveal an unexpectedly cool Eta Carinae during its 19th-century Great Eruption

Eta Carinae (Eta Car) is one of the most massive binary stars in the Milky Way. It became the second-brightest star in the sky during its mid-19th century "Great Eruption," but then faded from view (with only naked-eye estimates of brightness). Its eruption is unique among known astronomical transients in that it exceeded the Eddington luminosity limit for 10 years. Because it is only 2.3 kpc away, spatially resolved studies of the nebula have constrained the ejected mass and velocity, indicating that in its 19th century eruption, Eta Car ejected more than 10 M_solar in an event that had 10% of the energy of a typical core-collapse supernova without destroying the star. Here we report the discovery of light echoes of Eta Carinae which appear to be from the 1838-1858 Great Eruption. Spectra of these light echoes show only absorption lines, which are blueshifted by -210 km/s, in good agreement with predicted expansion speeds. The light-echo spectra correlate best with those of G2-G5 supergiant spectra, which have effective temperatures of ~5000 K. In contrast to the class of extragalactic outbursts assumed to be analogs of Eta Car's Great Eruption, the effective temperature of its outburst is significantly cooler than allowed by standard opaque wind models. This indicates that other physical mechanisms like an energetic blast wave may have triggered and influenced the eruption.Comment: Accepted for publication by Nature; 4 pages, 4 figures, SI: 6 pages, 3 figures, 5 table

A Blast Wave from the 1843 Eruption of Eta Carinae

Very massive stars shed much of their mass in violent precursor eruptions as luminous blue variables (LBVs) before reaching their most likely end as supernovae, but the cause of LBV eruptions is unknown. The 19th century eruption of Eta Carinae, the prototype of these events, ejected about 12 solar masses at speeds of 650 km/s, with a kinetic energy of almost 10^50 ergs. Some faster material with speeds up to 1000-2000 km/s had previously been reported but its full distribution was unknown. Here I report observations of much faster material with speeds up to 3500-6000 km/s, reaching farther from the star than the fastest material in earlier reports. This fast material roughly doubles the kinetic energy of the 19th century event, and suggests that it released a blast wave now propagating ahead of the massive ejecta. Thus, Eta Car's outer shell now mimics a low-energy supernova remnant. The eruption has usually been discussed in terms of an extreme wind driven by the star's luminosity, but fast material reported here suggests that it was powered by a deep-seated explosion rivalling a supernova, perhaps triggered by the pulsational pair instability. This may alter interpretations of similar events seen in other galaxies.Comment: 10 pages, 3 color figs, supplementary information. Accepted by Natur

Evaluation of biospheric components in earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: The state-of-the-art

PublishedJournal ArticleEarth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process-and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes. © 2013 Author(s).This paper emerged from the GREENCYCLESII mini-conference “Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations” held at Clare College, Cambridge, UK, in September 2012. We would like to thank the Marie Curie FP7 Research and Training Network GREENCYCLESII for providing funding which made this meeting possible. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 238366. The work of C. D. Jones was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). N. R. Edwards acknowledges support from FP7 grant no. 265170 (ERMITAGE). N. Vázquez Riveiros acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund and the Newton Trust

Attainment of clinical performance targets and improvement in clinical outcomes and resource use in hemodialysis care: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Clinical performance targets are intended to improve patient outcomes in chronic disease through quality improvement, but evidence of an association between multiple target attainment and patient outcomes in routine clinical practice is often lacking. METHODS: In a national prospective cohort study (ESRD Quality, or EQUAL), we examined whether attainment of multiple targets in 668 incident hemodialysis patients from 74 U.S. not-for-profit dialysis clinics was associated with better outcomes. We measured whether the following accepted clinical performance targets were met at 6 months after study enrollment: albumin (≥4.0 g/dl), hemoglobin (≥11 g/dl), calcium-phosphate product (<55 mg(2)/dl(2)), dialysis dose (Kt/V≥1.2), and vascular access type (fistula). Outcomes included mortality, hospital admissions, hospital days, and hospital costs. RESULTS: Attainment of each of the five targets was associated individually with better outcomes; e.g., patients who attained the albumin target had decreased mortality [relative hazard (RH) = 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.41–0.75], hospital admissions [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.67, 95% CI, 0.62–0.73], hospital days (IRR = 0.61, 95% CI, 0.58–0.63), and hospital costs (average annual cost reduction = $3,282, P = 0.002), relative to those who did not. Increasing numbers of targets attained were also associated, in a graded fashion, with decreased mortality (P = 0.030), fewer hospital admissions and days (P < 0.001 for both), and lower costs (P = 0.029); these trends remained statistically significant for all outcomes after adjustment (P < 0.001), except cost, which was marginally significant (P = 0.052). CONCLUSION: Attainment of more clinical performance targets, regardless of which targets, was strongly associated with decreased mortality, hospital admissions, and resource use in hemodialysis patients

Adam33 polymorphisms are associated with COPD and lung function in long-term tobacco smokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Variation in ADAM33 has been shown to be important in the development of asthma and altered lung function. This relationship however, has not been investigated in the population susceptible to COPD; long term tobacco smokers. We evaluated the association between polymorphisms in ADAM33 gene with COPD and lung function in long term tobacco smokers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Caucasian subjects, at least 50 year old, who smoked ≥ 20 pack-years (n = 880) were genotyped for 25 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ADAM33. COPD was defined as an FEV1/FVC ratio < 70% and percent-predicted (pp)FEV1 < 75% (n = 287). The control group had an FEV1/FVC ratio ≥ 70% and ppFEV₁≥ 80% (n = 311) despite ≥ 20 pack years of smoking. Logistic and linear regressions were used for the analysis. Age, sex, and smoking status were considered as potential confounders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five SNPs in ADAM33 were associated with COPD (Q-1, intronic: p < 0.003; S1, Ile → Val: p < 0.003; S2, Gly → Gly: p < 0.04; V-1 intronic: p < 0.002; V4, in 3' untranslated region: p < 0.007). Q-1, S1 and V-1 were also associated with ppFEV1, FEV1/FVC ratio and ppFEF25–75 (p values 0.001 – 0.02). S2 was associated with FEV1/FVC ratio (p < 0.05). The association between S1 and residual volume revealed a trend toward significance (p value < 0.07). Linkage disequilibrium and haplotype analyses suggested that S1 had the strongest degree of association with COPD and pulmonary function abnormalities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Five SNPs in ADAM33 were associated with COPD and lung function in long-term smokers. Functional studies will be needed to evaluate the biologic significance of these polymorphisms in the pathogenesis of COPD.</p

GRIPS - Gamma-Ray Imaging, Polarimetry and Spectroscopy

We propose to perform a continuously scanning all-sky survey from 200 keV to 80 MeV achieving a sensitivity which is better by a factor of 40 or more compared to the previous missions in this energy range. The Gamma-Ray Imaging, Polarimetry and Spectroscopy (GRIPS) mission addresses fundamental questions in ESA's Cosmic Vision plan. Among the major themes of the strategic plan, GRIPS has its focus on the evolving, violent Universe, exploring a unique energy window. We propose to investigate $\gamma$-ray bursts and blazars, the mechanisms behind supernova explosions, nucleosynthesis and spallation, the enigmatic origin of positrons in our Galaxy, and the nature of radiation processes and particle acceleration in extreme cosmic sources including pulsars and magnetars. The natural energy scale for these non-thermal processes is of the order of MeV. Although they can be partially and indirectly studied using other methods, only the proposed GRIPS measurements will provide direct access to their primary photons. GRIPS will be a driver for the study of transient sources in the era of neutrino and gravitational wave observatories such as IceCUBE and LISA, establishing a new type of diagnostics in relativistic and nuclear astrophysics. This will support extrapolations to investigate star formation, galaxy evolution, and black hole formation at high redshifts.Comment: to appear in Exp. Astron., special vol. on M3-Call of ESA's Cosmic Vision 2010; 25 p., 25 figs; see also www.grips-mission.e

Eta Carinae and the Luminous Blue Variables

We evaluate the place of Eta Carinae amongst the class of luminous blue variables (LBVs) and show that the LBV phenomenon is not restricted to extremely luminous objects like Eta Car, but extends luminosities as low as log(L/Lsun) = 5.4 - corresponding to initial masses ~25 Msun, and final masses as low as ~10-15 Msun. We present a census of S Doradus variability, and discuss basic LBV properties, their mass-loss behaviour, and whether at maximum light they form pseudo-photospheres. We argue that those objects that exhibit giant Eta Car-type eruptions are most likely related to the more common type of S Doradus variability. Alternative atmospheric models as well as sub-photospheric models for the instability are presented, but the true nature of the LBV phenomenon remains as yet elusive. We end with a discussion on the evolutionary status of LBVs - highlighting recent indications that some LBVs may be in a direct pre-supernova state, in contradiction to the standard paradigm for massive star evolution.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, Review Chapter in "Eta Carinae and the supernova imposters" (eds R. Humphreys and K. Davidson) new version submitted to Springe

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure