Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Hierarchical Modeling of Activation Mechanisms in the ABL and EGFR Kinase Domains: Thermodynamic and Mechanistic Catalysts of Kinase Activation by Cancer Mutations

Structural and functional studies of the ABL and EGFR kinase domains have recently suggested a common mechanism of activation by cancer-causing mutations. However, dynamics and mechanistic aspects of kinase activation by cancer mutations that stimulate conformational transitions and thermodynamic stabilization of the constitutively active kinase form remain elusive. We present a large-scale computational investigation of activation mechanisms in the ABL and EGFR kinase domains by a panel of clinically important cancer mutants ABL-T315I, ABL-L387M, EGFR-T790M, and EGFR-L858R. We have also simulated the activating effect of the gatekeeper mutation on conformational dynamics and allosteric interactions in functional states of the ABL-SH2-SH3 regulatory complexes. A comprehensive analysis was conducted using a hierarchy of computational approaches that included homology modeling, molecular dynamics simulations, protein stability analysis, targeted molecular dynamics, and molecular docking. Collectively, the results of this study have revealed thermodynamic and mechanistic catalysts of kinase activation by major cancer-causing mutations in the ABL and EGFR kinase domains. By using multiple crystallographic states of ABL and EGFR, computer simulations have allowed one to map dynamics of conformational fluctuations and transitions in the normal (wild-type) and oncogenic kinase forms. A proposed multi-stage mechanistic model of activation involves a series of cooperative transitions between different conformational states, including assembly of the hydrophobic spine, the formation of the Src-like intermediate structure, and a cooperative breakage and formation of characteristic salt bridges, which signify transition to the active kinase form. We suggest that molecular mechanisms of activation by cancer mutations could mimic the activation process of the normal kinase, yet exploiting conserved structural catalysts to accelerate a conformational transition and the enhanced stabilization of the active kinase form. The results of this study reconcile current experimental data with insights from theoretical approaches, pointing to general mechanistic aspects of activating transitions in protein kinases

The self-organizing fractal theory as a universal discovery method: the phenomenon of life

A universal discovery method potentially applicable to all disciplines studying organizational phenomena has been developed. This method takes advantage of a new form of global symmetry, namely, scale-invariance of self-organizational dynamics of energy/matter at all levels of organizational hierarchy, from elementary particles through cells and organisms to the Universe as a whole. The method is based on an alternative conceptualization of physical reality postulating that the energy/matter comprising the Universe is far from equilibrium, that it exists as a flow, and that it develops via self-organization in accordance with the empirical laws of nonequilibrium thermodynamics. It is postulated that the energy/matter flowing through and comprising the Universe evolves as a multiscale, self-similar structure-process, i.e., as a self-organizing fractal. This means that certain organizational structures and processes are scale-invariant and are reproduced at all levels of the organizational hierarchy. Being a form of symmetry, scale-invariance naturally lends itself to a new discovery method that allows for the deduction of missing information by comparing scale-invariant organizational patterns across different levels of the organizational hierarchy

The Energy Landscape Analysis of Cancer Mutations in Protein Kinases

The growing interest in quantifying the molecular basis of protein kinase activation and allosteric regulation by cancer mutations has fueled computational studies of allosteric signaling in protein kinases. In the present study, we combined computer simulations and the energy landscape analysis of protein kinases to characterize the interplay between oncogenic mutations and locally frustrated sites as important catalysts of allostetric kinase activation. While structurally rigid kinase core constitutes a minimally frustrated hub of the catalytic domain, locally frustrated residue clusters, whose interaction networks are not energetically optimized, are prone to dynamic modulation and could enable allosteric conformational transitions. The results of this study have shown that the energy landscape effect of oncogenic mutations may be allosteric eliciting global changes in the spatial distribution of highly frustrated residues. We have found that mutation-induced allosteric signaling may involve a dynamic coupling between structurally rigid (minimally frustrated) and plastic (locally frustrated) clusters of residues. The presented study has demonstrated that activation cancer mutations may affect the thermodynamic equilibrium between kinase states by allosterically altering the distribution of locally frustrated sites and increasing the local frustration in the inactive form, while eliminating locally frustrated sites and restoring structural rigidity of the active form. The energy landsape analysis of protein kinases and the proposed role of locally frustrated sites in activation mechanisms may have useful implications for bioinformatics-based screening and detection of functional sites critical for allosteric regulation in complex biomolecular systems

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

Multiscale representation of simulated time

To better support multiscale modeling and simulation, we present a multiscale time representation consisting of data types, data structures, and algorithms that collectively support the recording of past events and scheduling of future events in a discrete event simulation. Our approach addresses the drawbacks of conventional time representations: limited range in the case of 32- or 64-bit fixed-point time values; problematic rounding errors in the case of floating-point numbers; and the lack of a universally acceptable precision level in the case of brute force approaches. The proposed representation provides both extensive range and fine resolution in the timing of events, yet it stores and manipulates the majority of event times as standard 64-bit numbers. When adopted for simulation purposes, the representation allows a domain expert to choose a precision level for his/her model. This time precision is honored by the simulator even when the model is integrated with other models of vastly different time scales. Making use of C++11 programming language features and the Discrete Event System Specification formalism, we implemented a simulator to test the time representation and inform a discussion on its implications for collaborative multiscale modeling efforts