Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza

Patterns of social mixing are key determinants of epidemic spread. Here we present the results of an internet-based social contact survey completed by a cohort of participants over 9,000 times between July 2009 and March 2010, during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We quantify the changes in social contact patterns over time, finding that school children make 40% fewer contacts during holiday periods than during term time. We use these dynamically varying contact patterns to parameterise an age-structured model of influenza spread, capturing well the observed patterns of incidence; the changing contact patterns resulted in a fall of approximately 35% in the reproduction number of influenza during the holidays. This work illustrates the importance of including changing mixing patterns in epidemic models. We conclude that changes in contact patterns explain changes in disease incidence, and that the timing of school terms drove the 2009 H1N1v epidemic in the UK. Changes in social mixing patterns can be usefully measured through simple internet-based surveys

Seroprevalence and Severity of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A H1N1 in Taiwan

BACKGROUND: This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6-32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10-17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0-5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04-5.90) and elderly ≥ 65 years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99-3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10-17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly--the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season

The impact of illness and the impact of school closure on social contact patterns.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models, based on data describing normal patterns of social mixing, are used to understand epidemics in order to predict patterns of disease spread and plan interventions and responses. However, individuals who are ill show behavioural changes that affect their social mixing patterns and predictive models should take into account these changes if they are to be effective. OBJECTIVES: To describe and quantify the changes in (1) social contact behaviour experienced by individuals when they are ill with pandemic H1N1 influenza (swine flu) and (2) mixing patterns of school children that take place as a result of swine flu-related school closures. METHODS: For the first part of the study, a self-completed questionnaire-based study was carried out in the autumn/winter of 2009-10. The study population was individuals who had been diagnosed with swine flu and who received a swine flu antiviral prescription from an antiviral distribution centre (ADC). It consisted of an initial survey to be filled in when participants were symptomatic with swine flu and a follow-up survey to be filled in when they had recovered. Each part of the questionnaire had two sections: patient details and a contact diary. The second part of the study was adapted to quantify the difference in mixing patterns of pupils between the school term and the half-term holiday as school closures did not occur during the study period. Eight schools participated and questionnaire packs were distributed to them, containing two surveys: one to be filled in during the school term and one during the spring half-term holiday. RESULTS: For the patient study, approximately 3800 surveys were distributed by 31 ADCs. Overall, 317 responses to the initial survey were received and 179 participants returned the follow-up survey. For all types of a contact, except contacts made at home, there were highly significant differences in contact behaviour (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p < 0.001). Individuals made substantially fewer contacts when they were ill than when they were well. Analysis showed that returning to work was the most significant predictor of increased numbers of contacts. Also, the greater the change in the number of symptoms reported, the greater the change in the number of contacts. For the school study, approximately 1100 questionnaire packs were distributed and 134 responses were received, with 119 paired contact diaries. Pupils reported on average 18.51 contacts each day during term time and 9.24 during the half-term holiday - a reduction of over 50% and a highly significant change (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from this study suggests that ill individuals make substantial changes to their social contact patterns. These changes are strongly linked to absence from work and the severity of the reported illness. Epidemiological modellers should therefore consider the implications of illness-related behavioural changes on model predictions. Future studies to measure the extent of behavioural change in a broader cross-section of infected cases could be valuable, along with more detailed studies of the social contact patterns of school children, focusing on differences between school terms and school holidays

Multiplexed reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction for simultaneous detection of Mayaro, Oropouche, and Oropouche-like viruses

Submitted by Raphael Rodrigues ([email protected]) on 2017-06-13T14:33:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ve_Felipe_Gomes_Naveca_etal_ILMD_2017.pdf: 611276 bytes, checksum: 7e501740aec08f9832c2d20d41b9f4a9 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Raphael Rodrigues ([email protected]) on 2017-06-13T14:42:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ve_Felipe_Gomes_Naveca_etal_ILMD_2017.pdf: 611276 bytes, checksum: 7e501740aec08f9832c2d20d41b9f4a9 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-13T14:42:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ve_Felipe_Gomes_Naveca_etal_ILMD_2017.pdf: 611276 bytes, checksum: 7e501740aec08f9832c2d20d41b9f4a9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil / Unversidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brasil.We describe a sensitive method for simultaneous detection of Oropouche and Oropouche-like viruses carrying the Oropouche S segment, as well as the Mayaro virus, using a multiplexed one-step reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). A chimeric plasmid containing both Mayaro and Oropouche targets was designed and evaluated for the in vitro production of transcribed RNA, which could be easily used as a non-infectious external control. To track false-negative results due to PCR inhibition or equipment malfunction, the MS2 bacteriophage was also included in the multiplex assay as an internal positive control. The specificity of the multiplex assay was evaluated by Primer-Blast analysis against the entire GenBank database, and further against a panel of 17 RNA arboviruses. The results indicated an accurate and highly sensitive assay with amplification efficiency greater than 98% for both targets, and a limit of detection between two and 20 copies per reaction. We believe that the assay described here will provide a tool for Mayaro and Oropouche virus detection, especially in areas where differential diagnosis of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya viruses should be performed