Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: first, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant, and have become more important over time. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.House prices, Collateral Constraints, Bayesian methods, Two-sector Models

What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions

This paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the U.S., identified by imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are consistent with the implications of a popular class of DSGE models, with both real and nominal frictions, and with sufficiently wide ranges for their parameterers. This identification strategy thus substitutes theoretically-motivated restrictions for the atheoretical assumptions on the time-series properties of the data that are key to long-run restrictions. Stochastic technology improvements persistently increase real wages, consumption, investment and output in the data; hours worked are very likely to increase, displaying a hump-shaped pattern. Contrary to most of the related VAR evidence, results are not sensitive to a number of specification assumptions, including those on the stationarity properties of variables. JEL Classification: C3, E3Bayesian VAR methods, DSGE Models, Identification, Technology shocks

What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions

This paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the U.S., identified by imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are consistent with the implications of a popular class of DSGE models, with both real and nominal frictions, and with sufficiently wide ranges for their parameters. This identification strategy thus substitutes theoretically-motivated restrictions for the atheoretical assumptions on the time-series properties of the data that are key to long-run restrictions. Stochastic technology improvements persistently increase real wages, consumption, investment and output in the data; hours worked are very likely to increase, displaying a hump-shaped pattern. Contrary to most of the related VAR evidence, results are not sensitive to a number of specification assumptions, including those on the stationarity properties of variables.technology shocks, DSGE models, bayesian VAR methods, identification

The transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro area

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro-area using a two-country structural VAR with no exogeneity assumption. The analysis reveals the following results. First, in response to an unexpected increase in the Federal funds rate, the euro immediately depreciates with respect to the dollar and then appreciates in line with the prediction of the uncovered interest parity condition. Second, there is evidence of a temporary positive spillover to euro-area output in the short run, while a negative effect emerges in the medium run. Third, the contribution of the trade balance channel to the transmission of monetary shocks is negligible. Finally, the degree of pass-through of the exchange rate changes onto euro-area consumer prices is incomplete and small in the short run, while it is close to zero in the medium run.VAR, Monetary Policy, International transmission

Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model

We study sources and consequences of fluctuations in the housing market. The upward trend in real housing prices of the last 40 years can be explained by slow technological progress in the housing sector. Over the business cycle, housing demand and housing technology shocks explain one-quarter each of the volatility of housing investment and housing prices. Monetary factors explain 20 percent, but they played a bigger role in the housing cycle at the turn of the century. We show that the housing market spillovers are non-negligible, concentrated on consumption rather than business investment, and have become more important over time.Housing, Wealth E¤ects, Bayesian Estimation, Two-sector Models

Information variables for monetary policy in a small structural model of the euro area

This paper estimates a small New-Keynesian model with imperfect information and optimal discretionary policy using data for the euro area. The model is used to assess the usefulness of monetary aggregates and unit labour costs as information variables for monetary policy. The estimates reveal that the information content of the M3 monetary aggregate is limited. A more useful role emerges for the unit labour cost indicator, which contains information on potential output that helps to reduce the volatility of the output gap. Finally, the estimated weights for the objectives of monetary policy show that considerable importance is attributed to interest-rate smoothing, greater than to output gap stabilization. This finding indicates that the welfare gains of commitment may be smaller than suggested by typical parametrizations of New-Keynesian models.monetary policy, Kalman filter, inflation, output gap

Note sulla prima edizione conservata de i quattro libri di "Amadis di Gaula (Venezia, 1547) nell' esemplare unico della Bancroft Library (University of California)

This article describes an unknown edition of Italian Amadis, the oldest conserved at present, and studies its relationship with the early editions of the text. The volume is part of a rich collection of Italian translations and continuations of Spanish chivalric novels owned by the Bancroft Library (Berkeley, University of California). A short catalogue of this collection is given in addendum

Del Oliveros al Olivieri. Los contenidos

ResumenEste artículo es la tercera parte de un estudio sobre la versión italiana del Oliveros de Castilla (Olivieri di Castiglia, Venezia, Francesco Portonari, 1552) y contiene una guía de los contenidos de la obra, estructurada según el modelo de la colección «Guías de lectura caballeresca», publicada por el Centro de Estudios Cervantinos. Los resúmenes y el índice de los personajes ofrecen una visión de conjunto de la obra y permiten localizar fácilmente los lugares del texto en que se producen los cambios estudiados.Palabras ClaveOlivieri di Castiglia, Oliveros de Castilla, Francesco Portonari, libros de caballerías, narrativa caballeresca breve, traducciones italianas.AbstractThis article is the third part of a study on the Italian version of Oliveros de Castilla (Olivieri di Castiglia, Venezia, Francesco Portonari, 1552) and contains a guide to the contents of the book, structured on the model of the series «Guías de lectura caballeresca» published by Centro de Estudios Cervantinos. The summaries and the index of characters offer an overview of the work and allow to easily locate the textual passages where changes studied occur.KeywordsOlivieri di Castiglia, Oliveros de Castilla, Francesco Portonari, romances of chivalry, short tales of chivalry, Italian translation

Housing, consumption and monetary policy: how different are the US and the euro area?

The paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the role of the housing market in the macroeconomy in the US and in the euro area. First, it establishes some stylised facts concerning key variables in the housing market, such as the real house price, residential investment and mortgage debt on the two sides of the Atlantic. Then, it presents evidence from Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) by focusing on the effects of three structural shocks, (i) monetary policy, (ii) credit supply and (iii) housing demand shocks on the housing market and the broader economy. We find that similarities overshadow di¤erences as far as the role of the housing market is concerned. We find evidence pointing in the direction of a stronger role for housing in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the US, while the evidence is less clearcut for housing demand shocks. We also find that credit supply shocks matter more in the euro area. JEL Classification: E22, E44, E52credit, House prices, monetary policy, Residential investment