A validation of the Oswestry Spinal Risk Index

Purpose The purpose of this study was to validate the Oswestry Spinal Risk Index (OSRI) in an external population. The OSRI predicts survival in patients with metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC). Methods We analysed the data of 100 patients undergoing surgical intervention for MSCC at a tertiary spinal unit and recorded the primary tumour pathology and Karnofsky performance status to calculate the OSRI. Logistic regression models and survival plots were applied to the data in accordance with the original paper. Results Lower OSRI scores predicted longer survival. The OSRI score predicted survival accurately in 74% of cases (p = 0.004). Conclusions Our study has found that the OSRI is a significant predictor of survival at levels similar to those of the original authors and is a useful and simple tool in aiding complex decision making in patients presenting with MSC

Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods

Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record is time integrated to stress its comparison with the temperature record. The integrated NAO (INAO) is found to well correlate with the length of the day (since 1650) and the global surface sea temperature record HadSST2 and HadSST3 (since 1850). These findings suggest that INAO can be used as a good proxy for global climate change, and that a 60-year cycle exists in the global climate since at least 1700. Finally, the INAO ~60-year oscillation well correlates with the ~60- year oscillations found in the historical European aurora record since 1700, which suggests that this 60-year dominant climatic cycle has a solar-astronomical origin

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

The sinus tarsi approach in displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures: a systematic review

Purpose: Although open reduction and internal fixation is currently considered the gold standard in surgical treatment of displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures, various different approaches exist including the limited lateral approach. The aim of this systematic review was to combine the results of studies using the sinus tarsi approach, which is the most frequently applied limited lateral approach. Method: A literature search in the electronic databases of the Cochrane Library and Pubmed Medline, between January 1st 2000 to December 1st 2010, was conducted to identify studies in which the sinus tarsi approach or a modified sinus tarsi approach was utilized for the treatment of displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Coleman methodology score. Results: A total of eight case series reporting on 256 patients with 271 calcaneal fractures was identified. Overall good to excellent outcome was reached in three-quarters of all patients. An average complication rate of minor wound complications of 4.1% was reported and major wound complications in 0.7%. The need for a secondary subtalar arthrodesis occurred at an average rate of 4.3%. The average Coleman methodology score was 56.8 (range 39-72) points. Conclusion: The results, i.e. functional outcome and complication rates, of the sinus tarsi approach compare similarly or favourably to the extended lateral approach. Therefore, in the process of tailoring the best treatment modality to the right patient and the right fracture type, the sinus tarsi approach might be a valuable asset

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models

Social Transmission and the Spread of Modern Contraception in Rural Ethiopia

Socio-economic development has proven to be insufficient to explain the time and pace of the human demographic transition. Shifts to low fertility norms have thus been thought to result from social diffusion, yet to date, micro-level studies are limited and are often unable to disentangle the effect of social transmission from that of extrinsic factors. We used data which included the first ever use of modern contraception among a population of over 900 women in four villages in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is still low (<20%). We investigated whether the time of adoption of modern contraception is predicted by (i) the proportion of ever-users/non ever-users within both women and their husbands' friendships networks and (ii) the geographic distance to contraceptive ever-users. Using a model comparison approach, we found that individual socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. parity, education) and a religious norm are the most likely explanatory factors of temporal and spatial patterns of contraceptive uptake, while the role of person-to-person contact through either friendship or spatial networks remains marginal. Our study has broad implications for understanding the processes that initiate transitions to low fertility and the uptake of birth control technologies in the developing world

Follicular thyroid carcinoma invades venous rather than lymphatic vessels

Follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) tends to metastasize to remote organs rather than local lymph nodes. Separation of FTC from follicular thyroid adenoma (FTA) relies on detection of vascular and/or capsular invasion. We investigated which vascular markers, CD31, CD34 and D2-40 (lymphatic vessel marker), can best evaluate vascular invasion and why FTC tends to metastasize via blood stream to remote organs. Thirty two FTCs and 34 FTAs were retrieved for evaluation. The average age of patients with FTA was 8 years younger than FTC (p = 0.02). The female to male ratio for follicular neoplasm was 25:8. The average size of FTC was larger than FTA (p = 0.003). Fourteen of 32 (44%) FTCs showed venous invasion and none showed lymphatic invasion, with positive CD31 and CD34 staining and negative D2-40 staining of the involved vessels. The average number of involved vessels was 0.88 ± 1.29 with a range from 0 to 5, and the average diameter of involved vessels was 0.068 ± 0.027 mm. None of the 34 FTAs showed vascular invasion. CD31 staining demonstrated more specific staining of vascular endothelial cells than CD34, with less background staining. We recommended using CD31 rather than CD34 and/or D2-40 in confirming/excluding vascular invasion in difficult cases. All identified FTCs with vascular invasions showed involvement of venous channels, rather than lymphatic spaces, suggesting that FTCs prefer to metastasize via veins to distant organs, instead of lymphatic vessels to local lymph nodes, which correlates with previous clinical observations

Conversion of Amides into Esters by the Nickel-Catalyzed Activation of Amide C-N Bonds

The amide function is ubiquitous in natural compounds as well as in man-made molecules and materials. It is generally very stable and poorly reactive owing to its resonance-stabilized C–N group that imparts a planar geometry to amides. In contrast, carboxylic esters are generally reactive under a variety of mild conditions; therefore, it is not surprising that a number of direct methods are available to the chemist for converting esters into amides (amino-de-alkoxylation reaction) but very few for achieving the opposite transformation. Recently, Professors Neil Garg and Ken Houk from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA, USA) reported in Nature a groundbreaking method for converting amides into esters with a high degree of efficiency