A nonparametric urn-based approach to interacting failing systems with an application to credit risk modeling

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the means of inter- acting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are divided into reliability classes

Relic Gravitational Waves and Their Detection

The range of expected amplitudes and spectral slopes of relic (squeezed) gravitational waves, predicted by theory and partially supported by observations, is within the reach of sensitive gravity-wave detectors. In the most favorable case, the detection of relic gravitational waves can be achieved by the cross-correlation of outputs of the initial laser interferometers in LIGO, VIRGO, GEO600. In the more realistic case, the sensitivity of advanced ground-based and space-based laser interferometers will be needed. The specific statistical signature of relic gravitational waves, associated with the phenomenon of squeezing, is a potential reserve for further improvement of the signal to noise ratio.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures included, revtex. Based on a talk given at "Gyros, Clocks, and Interferometers: Testing General Relativity in Space" (Germany, August 99

MRI findings in men on active surveillance for prostate cancer: does dutasteride make MRI visible lesions less conspicuous? Results from a placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial

Objectives To investigate changes in the Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC) using diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) in men on active surveillance for prostate cancer taking dutasteride 0.5 mg or placebo. Methods We analysed 37 men, randomised to 6 months of daily dutasteride (n = 18) or placebo (n = 19), undergoing 3T multi-parametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging (mpMRI) scans at baseline and 6 months. Images were reviewed blind to treatment allocation and clinical information. Mean ADC of peripheral (PZ) and transition (TZ) zones, and MR-suspicious lesions were compared between groups over 6 months. Conspicuity was defined as the PZ divided by tumour ADC, and its change over 6 months was assessed. Results A decrease in mean conspicuity in the dutasteride group (but not the controls) was seen over 6 months (1.54 vs 1.38; p = 0.025). Absolute changes in ADC and conspicuity were significantly different between placebo and dutasteride groups at 6 months: (-0.03 vs 0.08, p = 0.033) and (0.11 vs –0.16, p = 0.012), as were percentage changes in the same parameters: (-2.27% vs 8.56% p = 0.048) and (9.25% vs -9.89% p = 0.013). Conclusions Dutasteride was associated with increased tumour ADC and reduced conspicuity. A lower threshold for triggering biopsy might be considered in men on dutasteride undergoing mpMRI for prostate cancer

Triton binding energy calculated from the SU_6 quark-model nucleon-nucleon interaction

Properties of the three-nucleon bound state are examined in the Faddeev formalism, in which the quark-model nucleon-nucleon interaction is explicitly incorporated to calculate the off-shell T-matrix. The most recent version, fss2, of the Kyoto-Niigata quark-model potential yields the ground-state energy ^3H=-8.514 MeV in the 34 channel calculation, when the np interaction is used for the nucleon-nucleon interaction. The charge root mean square radii of the ^3H and ^3He are 1.72 fm and 1.90 fm, respectively, including the finite size correction of the nucleons. These values are the closest to the experiments among many results obtained by detailed Faddeev calculations employing modern realistic nucleon-nucleon interaction models.Comment: 10 pages, no figure

Chapter 10 - Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional

This chapter assesses the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches. The chapter adopts the terminology for detection and attribution proposed by the IPCC good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution (Hegerl et al., 2010) and for uncertainty Mastrandrea et al. (2011). Detection and attribution of impacts of climate changes are assessed by Working Group II, where Chapter 18 assesses the extent to which atmospheric and oceanic changes influence ecosystems, infrastructure, human health and activities in economic sectors

The luminosities of protostars in the spitzer c2d and gould belt legacy clouds

Journal ArticlePublished version available online at the Astronomical Journal, Volume 145, Number 4, Article 94; doi: doi: 10.1088/0004-6256/145/4/94Motivated by the long-standing "luminosity problem" in low-mass star formation whereby protostars are underluminous compared to theoretical expectations, we identify 230 protostars in 18 molecular clouds observed by two Spitzer Space Telescope Legacy surveys of nearby star-forming regions. We compile complete spectral energy distributions, calculate L bol for each source, and study the protostellar luminosity distribution. This distribution extends over three orders of magnitude, from 0.01 L ȯ to 69 L ȯ, and has a mean and median of 4.3 L ȯ and 1.3 L ȯ, respectively. The distributions are very similar for Class 0 and Class I sources except for an excess of low luminosity (L bol ≲ 0.5 L) Class I sources compared to Class 0. 100 out of the 230 protostars (43%) lack any available data in the far-infrared and submillimeter (70 μm <λ < 850 μm) and have L bol underestimated by factors of 2.5 on average, and up to factors of 8-10 in extreme cases. Correcting these underestimates for each source individually once additional data becomes available will likely increase both the mean and median of the sample by 35%-40%. We discuss and compare our results to several recent theoretical studies of protostellar luminosities and show that our new results do not invalidate the conclusions of any of these studies. As these studies demonstrate that there is more than one plausible accretion scenario that can match observations, future attention is clearly needed. The better statistics provided by our increased data set should aid such future work. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved..National Science FoundationNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technolog

Localization by disorder in the infrared conductivity of (Y,Pr)Ba2Cu3O7 films

The ab-plane reflectivity of (Y{1-x}Prx)Ba2Cu3O7 thin films was measured in the 30-30000 cm-1 range for samples with x = 0 (Tc = 90 K), x = 0.4 (Tc = 35 K) and x = 0.5 (Tc = 19 K) as a function of temperature in the normal state. The effective charge density obtained from the integrated spectral weight decreases with increasing x. The variation is consistent with the higher dc resistivity for x = 0.4, but is one order of magnitude smaller than what would be expected for x = 0.5. In the latter sample, the conductivity is dominated at all temperatures by a large localization peak. Its magnitude increases as the temperature decreases. We relate this peak to the dc resistivity enhancement. A simple localization-by-disorder model accounts for the optical conductivity of the x = 0.5 sample.Comment: 7 pages with (4) figures include

Unit bar architecture in a highly‐variable fluvial discharge regime: Examples from the Burdekin River, Australia

Unit bars are relatively large bedforms that develop in rivers over a wide range of climatic regimes. Unit bars formed within the highly-variable discharge Burdekin River in Queensland, Australia, were examined over three field campaigns between 2015 and 2017. These bars had complex internal structures, dominated by co-sets of cross-stratified and planar-stratified sets. The cross-stratified sets tended to down-climb. The development of complex internal structures was primarily a result of three processes: (i) superimposed bedforms reworking the unit bar avalanche face; (ii) variable discharge triggering reactivation surfaces; and (iii) changes in bar growth direction induced by stage change. Internal structures varied along the length and across the width of unit bars. For the former, down-climbing cross-stratified sets tended to pass into single planar cross-stratified deposits at the downstream end of emergent bars; such variation related to changes in fluvial conditions whilst bars were active. A hierarchy of six categories of fluvial unsteadiness is proposed, with these discussed in relation to their effects on unit bar (and dune) internal structure. Across-deposit variation was caused by changes in superimposed bedform and bar character along bar crests; such changes related to the three-dimensionality of the channel and bar geometry when bars were active. Variation in internal structure is likely to be more pronounced in unit bar deposits than in smaller bedform (for example, dune) deposits formed in the same river. This is because smaller bedforms are more easily washed out or modified by changing discharge conditions and their smaller dimensions restrict the variation in flow conditions that occur over their width. In regimes where unit bar deposits are well-preserved, their architectural variability is a potential aid to their identification. This complex architecture also allows greater resolution in interpreting the conditions before and during bar initiation and development