Breaking the habit: measuring and predicting departures from routine in individual human mobility

Researchers studying daily life mobility patterns have recently shown that humans are typically highly predictable in their movements. However, no existing work has examined the boundaries of this predictability, where human behaviour transitions temporarily from routine patterns to highly unpredictable states. To address this shortcoming, we tackle two interrelated challenges. First, we develop a novel information-theoretic metric, called instantaneous entropy, to analyse an individual’s mobility patterns and identify temporary departures from routine. Second, to predict such departures in the future, we propose the first Bayesian framework that explicitly models breaks from routine, showing that it outperforms current state-of-the-art predictor

NASA's Big Earth Data Initiative Accomplishments

The goal of NASA's effort for BEDI is to improve the usability, discoverability, and accessibility of Earth Observation data in support of societal benefit areas. Accomplishments: In support of BEDI goals, datasets have been entered into Common Metadata Repository(CMR), made available via the Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP), have a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) registered for the dataset, and to support fast visualization many layers have been added in to the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS)

Plant families exhibit unique geographic trends in C4 richness and cover in Australia

Numerous studies have analysed the relationship between C4 plant cover and climate. However, few have examined how different C4 taxa vary in their response to climate, or how environmental factors alter C4:C3 abundance. Here we investigate (a) how proportional C4 plant cover and richness (relative to C3) responds to changes in climate and local environmental factors, and (b) if this response is consistent among families. Proportional cover and richness of C4 species were determined at 541 one-hectare plots across Australia for 14 families. C4 cover and richness of the most common and abundant families were regressed against climate and local parameters. C4 richness and cover in the monocot families Poaceae and Cyperaceae increased with latitude and were strongly positively correlated with January temperatures, however C4 Cyperaceae occupied a more restricted temperature range. Seasonal rainfall, soil pH, soil texture, and tree cover modified proportional C4 cover in both families. Eudicot families displayed considerable variation in C4 distribution patterns. Proportional C4 Euphorbiaceae richness and cover were negatively correlated with increased moisture availability (i.e. high rainfall and low aridity), indicating they were more common in dry environments. Proportional C4 Chenopodiaceae richness and cover were weakly correlated with climate and local environmental factors, including soil texture. However, the explanatory power of C4 Chenopodiaceae models were poor, suggesting none of the factors considered in this study strongly influenced Chenopodiaceae distribution. Proportional C4 richness and cover in Aizoaceae, Amaranthaceae, and Portulacaceae increased with latitude, suggesting C4 cover and richness in these families increased with temperature and summer rainfall, but sample size was insufficient for regression analysis. Results demonstrate the unique relationships between different C4 taxa and climate, and the significant modifying effects of environmental factors on C4 distribution. Our work also revealed C4 families will not exhibit similar responses to local perturbations or climate.Samantha E. M. MunroeID, Francesca A. McInerney, Greg R. Guerin, Jake W. Andrae, Nina WeltiID, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Rachel Atkins, Ben Sparro

Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts

Streamflow forecasting is prone to substantial uncertainty due to errors in meteorological forecasts, hydrological model structure, and parameterization, as well as in the observed rainfall and streamflow data used to calibrate the models. Statistical streamflow post-processing is an important technique available to improve the probabilistic properties of the forecasts. This study evaluates post-processing approaches based on three transformations – logarithmic (Log), log-sinh (Log-Sinh), and Box–Cox with λ=0.2 (BC0.2) – and identifies the best-performing scheme for post-processing monthly and seasonal (3-months-ahead) streamflow forecasts, such as those produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Using the Bureau's operational dynamic streamflow forecasting system, we carry out comprehensive analysis of the three post-processing schemes across 300 Australian catchments with a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Forecast verification is assessed using reliability and sharpness metrics, as well as the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS). Results show that the uncorrected forecasts (i.e. without post-processing) are unreliable at half of the catchments. Post-processing of forecasts substantially improves reliability, with more than 90 % of forecasts classified as reliable. In terms of sharpness, the BC0.2 scheme substantially outperforms the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. Overall, the BC0.2 scheme achieves reliable and sharper-than-climatology forecasts at a larger number of catchments than the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. The improvements in forecast reliability and sharpness achieved using the BC0.2 post-processing scheme will help water managers and users of the forecasting service make better-informed decisions in planning and management of water resources.Fitsum Woldemeskel, David McInerney, Julien Lerat, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Daehyok Shin, Narendra Tuteja and George Kuczer

Bibliometric analysis of themes competitive intelligence, knowledge management and organizational knowledge in Institutional Repository University of Brasília

Trata da análise dos temas Inteligência Competitiva (IC), Gestão do Conhecimento (GC) e Conhecimento Organizacional (CO), no Repositório Institucional da Universidade da Brasília (RIUnB), que está disponível em acesso aberto desde setembro de 2008. O objetivo é verificar a produção científica sobre as áreas de pesquisa, a partir dos documentos que constam no RIUnB. O método de trabalho consistiu nos estudos bibliométricos, a fim de se inteirar sobre a produção de trabalhos referentes ao conhecimento resultante do desenvolvimento de pesquisas no âmbito institucional, para conhecer a comunidade. Os resultados apontam para um crescimento notório desses temas na ciência da informação, com perspectiva de crescimento em outras áreas: administração, engenharia elétrica, educação e gestão social e trabalho, demonstrando sua potencial interdisciplinaridade; houve maior concentração de publicação nos temas gestão do conhecimento, conhecimento organizacional e inteligência competitiva, respectivamente, e existe uma concentração dessas publicações em três pesquisadores na comunidade da Faculdade de Ciência da Informação (FCI). Conclui-se que os temas são mais frequentes na área de ciência da informação, entretanto, nota-se o seu aparecimento em outras áreas do conhecimento, na UnB: administração, engenharia elétrica, educação e gestão social e do trabalho. Esses dados podem revelar uma tendência de consolidação dos temas de pesquisa em outras áreas. ________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThis analysis of topics Competitive Intelligence (CI), Knowledge Management (KM) and Organizational Knowledge (CO) in the Institutional Repository of the University of Brasília (RIUnB) which is available in open access since September 2008. The aim is to check the scientific literature on the research areas from the documents listed in RIUnB. The working method consisted in bibliometric studies, in order to learn about the production of works relating to knowledge resulting from research development at the institutional level to know the community. The results indicate a remarkable growth of these themes in information science, with growth prospects in other areas: administration, electrical engineering, management and education and social work, demonstrating its potential interdisciplinarity, there was a higher concentration of publishing on issues of knowledge management, organizational knowledge and competitive intelligence, respectively, and there is a concentration of such publications in three community researchers in the Faculty of Information Science (FCI). We conclude that the issues are more frequent in the area of information science, however, note its appearance in other areas of knowledge in UNB: administration, electrical engineering, education and social management and labor. These data may reveal a trend of consolidation of research topics in other areas