Young AIDS Migrants in Southern Africa

Many young people in southern Africa engage in AIDS-related migration. Research conducted with urban and rural-based children in Malawi and Lesotho revealed that children are commonly sent to live with relatives resident elsewhere. They move in order to receive care, to care others, or to support their own livelihoods. Migration has a variety of impacts on young people, many of which are exacerbated by the effects of the epidemic. It is advocated that policy approaches for AIDS-affected children take into account the interests of children themselves and the needs of households that accommodate them

Pacific Basin Communication Study, volume 2

Users' meeting summary report, chronology of visits, economic data for forum countries, techniques used in the study, communication choices, existing resources in the Pacific Basin, and warc 79 region 3 rules and regulations were presented in volume 2

Momentum transfer dependence of the proton's electric and magnetic polarizabilities

The Q^2-dependence of the sum of the electric and magnetic polarizabilities of the proton is calculated over the range 0 \leq Q^2 \leq 6 GeV^2 using the generalized Baldin sum rule. Employing a parametrization of the F_1 structure function valid down to Q^2 = 0.06 GeV^2, the polarizabilities at the real photon point are found by extrapolating the results of finite Q^2 to Q^2 = 0 GeV^2. We determine the evolution over four-momentum transfer to be consistent with the Baldin sum rule using photoproduction data, obtaining \alpha + \beta = 13.7 \pm 0.7 \times 10^{-4}\, \text{fm}^3.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Devroye Inequality for a Class of Non-Uniformly Hyperbolic Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we prove an inequality, which we call "Devroye inequality", for a large class of non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems (M,f). This class, introduced by L.-S. Young, includes families of piece-wise hyperbolic maps (Lozi-like maps), scattering billiards (e.g., planar Lorentz gas), unimodal and H{\'e}non-like maps. Devroye inequality provides an upper bound for the variance of observables of the form K(x,f(x),...,f^{n-1}(x)), where K is any separately Holder continuous function of n variables. In particular, we can deal with observables which are not Birkhoff averages. We will show in \cite{CCS} some applications of Devroye inequality to statistical properties of this class of dynamical systems.Comment: Corrected version; To appear in Nonlinearit

Billiards with polynomial mixing rates

While many dynamical systems of mechanical origin, in particular billiards, are strongly chaotic -- enjoy exponential mixing, the rates of mixing in many other models are slow (algebraic, or polynomial). The dynamics in the latter are intermittent between regular and chaotic, which makes them particularly interesting in physical studies. However, mathematical methods for the analysis of systems with slow mixing rates were developed just recently and are still difficult to apply to realistic models. Here we reduce those methods to a practical scheme that allows us to obtain a nearly optimal bound on mixing rates. We demonstrate how the method works by applying it to several classes of chaotic billiards with slow mixing as well as discuss a few examples where the method, in its present form, fails.Comment: 39pages, 11 figue

Weather-Based Crop Insurance Contracts for African Countries

Weather constitutes the major source for production risk in agriculture. Weather index can be used construct crop insurance that demand less information and can avoid moral hazard and adverse selection problems. Based on mean-variance model, theoretical results on the optimal insurance coverage and its impact from risk preference, basis risk, and premium loading are derived, which are quite consistent to the empirical results from the expected utility model. Using South Africa corn data, we investigate growers' demand and efficiency of alternative hypothetical weather index crop insurance programs. In contrast to previous work that suggests that a single-variable weather index suffices to develop an insurance contract, this study shows that the insured grower achieves a higher utility from multivariate weather indices. The most important single weather index we found in the study area was GDD, and the combination of rainfall and either temperature or GDD outperformed the single variable indices by a large margin. Depending on the growers risk preference, s/he may choose to buy o r offer such insurance for sale if the price is not actuarially fair. The risk protection value of weather-indexed-insurance follows the predictive power of the index on yield in general, though not exactly.Risk and Uncertainty, C51, C61, G22, Q14,

A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

Protocol for a mixed-methods exploratory investigation of care following intensive care discharge: the REFLECT study

© Author(s) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.INTRODUCTION: A substantial number of patients discharged from intensive care units (ICUs) subsequently die without leaving hospital. It is unclear how many of these deaths are preventable. Ward-based management following discharge from ICU is an area that patients and healthcare staff are concerned about. The primary aim of REFLECT (Recovery Following Intensive Care Treatment) is to develop an intervention plan to reduce in-hospital mortality rates in patients who have been discharged from ICU. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: REFLECT is a multicentre mixed-methods exploratory study examining ward care delivery to adult patients discharged from ICU. The study will be made up of four substudies. Medical notes of patients who were discharged from ICU and subsequently died will be examined using a retrospective case records review (RCRR) technique. Patients and their relatives will be interviewed about their post-ICU care, including relatives of patients who died in hospital following ICU discharge. Staff involved in the care of patients post-ICU discharge will be interviewed about the care of this patient group. The medical records of patients who survived their post-ICU stay will also be reviewed using the RCRR technique. The analyses of the substudies will be both descriptive and use a modified grounded theory approach to identify emerging themes. The evidence generated in these four substudies will form the basis of the intervention development, which will take place through stakeholder and clinical expert meetings. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained through the Wales Research and Ethics Committee 4 (17/WA/0107). We aim to disseminate the findings through international conferences, international peer-reviewed journals and social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN14658054.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

High-power, ultralow-mass solar arrays: FY-77 solar arrays technology readiness assessment report, volume 2

Development efforts are reported in detail for: (1) a lightweight solar array system for solar electric propulsion; (2) a high efficiency thin silicon solar cell; (3) conceptual design of 200 W/kg solar arrays; (4) fluorocarbon encapsulation for silicon solar cell array; and (5) technology assessment of concentrator solar arrays