A user-friendly and accurate machine learning tool for the evaluation of the worldwide yearly photovoltaic electricity production

While traditional methods for modelling the thermal and electrical behaviour of photovoltaic (PV) modules rely on analytical and empirical techniques, machine learning is gaining interest as a way to reduce the time, expertise, and tools required by designers or experts while maintaining high accuracy and reliability. This research presents a data-driven machine learning tool based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) that can forecast yearly PV electricity directly at the optimal PV inclination angle without geographic restrictions and is valid for a wide range of electrical characteristics of PV modules. Additionally, empirical correlations were developed to easily determine the optimal PV inclination angle worldwide. The ANN algorithm, developed in Matlab, systematically and quantitatively summarizes the behaviour of eight PV modules in 48 worldwide climatic conditions. The algorithm's applicability and robustness were proven by considering two different PV modules in the same 48 locations. Yearly climatic variables and electrical/thermal PV module parameters serve as input training data. The yearly PV electricity is derived using dynamic simulations in the TRNSYS environment, which is a simulation program primarily and extensively used in the fields of renewable energy engineering and building simulation for passive as well as active solar design. Multiple performance metrics validate that the ANN-based machine learning tool demonstrates high reliability and accuracy in the PV energy production forecasting for all weather conditions and PV module characteristics. In particular, by using 20 neurons, the highest value of R-square of 0.9797 and the lowest values of the root mean square error and coefficient of variance of 14.67 kWh and 3.8%, respectively, were obtained in the training phase. This high accuracy was confirmed in the ANN validation phase considering other PV modules. An R-square of 0.9218 and values of the root mean square error and coefficient of variance of 31.95 kWh and 7.8%, respectively, were obtained. The results demonstrate the algorithm's vast potential to enhance the worldwide diffusion and economic growth of solar energy, aligned with the seventh sustainable development goal

Loop Quantum Cosmology, Boundary Proposals, and Inflation

Loop quantum cosmology of the closed isotropic model is studied with a special emphasis on a comparison with traditional results obtained in the Wheeler-DeWitt approach. This includes the relation of the dynamical initial conditions with boundary conditions such as the no-boundary or the tunneling proposal and a discussion of inflation from quantum cosmology.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

Spatially coordinated conservation auctions: a framed field experiment focusing on farmland wildlife conservation in China

How best to incentivize land managers to achieve conservation goals in an economically and ecologically effective manner is a key policy question that has gained increased relevance from the setting of ambitious new global targets for biodiversity conservation. Conservation (reverse) auctions are a policy tool for improving the environmental performance of agriculture, which has become well-established in the academic literature and in policy making in the US and Australia. However, little is known about the likely response of farmers to incentives within such an auction to (1) increase spatial connectivity and (2) encourage collective participation. This paper presents the first framed field experiment with farmers as participants that examines the effects of two features of conservation policy design: joint (collective) participation by farmers and the incentivization of spatial connectivity. The experiment employs farmers in China, a country making increasing use of payments for ecosystem services to achieve a range of environmental objectives. We investigate whether auction performance—both economic and ecological—can be improved by the introduction of agglomeration bonus and joint bidding bonus mechanisms. Our empirical results suggest that, compared to a baseline spatially coordinated conservation auction, the performance of an auction with an agglomeration bonus, a joint bidding bonus, or both, is inferior on two key metrics—the environmental benefits generated and cost effectiveness realized

Operator ordering and consistency of the wavefunction of the Universe

We demonstrate in the context of the minisuperspace model consisting of a closed Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe coupled to a scalar field that Vilenkin's tunneling wavefunction can only be consistently defined for particular choices of operator ordering in the Wheeler-DeWitt equation. The requirement of regularity of the wavefunction has the particular consequence that the probability amplitude, which has been used previously in the literature in discussions of issues such as the prediction of inflation, is likewise ill-defined for certain choices of operator ordering with Vilenkin's boundary condition. By contrast, the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary wavefunction can be consistently defined within these models, independently of operator ordering. The significance of this result is discussed within the context of the debate about the predictions of semiclassical quantum cosmology. In particular, it is argued that inflation cannot be confidently regarded as a "prediction" of the tunneling wavefunction, for reasons similar to those previously invoked in the case of the no-boundary wavefunction. A synthesis of the no-boundary and tunneling approaches is argued for.Comment: 9 pages, epsf, revTeX-3.1, 1 figure. In revised version (v2) a new section etc with additional arguments increases the length of paper by 3 pages of Physical Review; several references added. v3: small typos fixe

Bosonic field equations from an exact uncertainty principle

A Hamiltonian formalism is used to describe ensembles of fields in terms of two canonically conjugate functionals (one being the field probability density). The postulate that a classical ensemble is subject to nonclassical fluctuations of the field momentum density, of a strength determined solely by the field uncertainty, is shown to lead to a unique modification of the ensemble Hamiltonian. The modified equations of motion are equivalent to the quantum equations for a bosonic field, and thus this exact uncertainty principle provides a new approach to deriving and interpreting the properties of quantum ensembles. The examples of electromagnetic and gravitational fields are discussed. In the latter case the exact uncertainty approach specifies a unique operator ordering for the Wheeler-DeWitt and Ashtekar-Wheeler-DeWitt equations.Comment: 24 pages, extended version of part (B) of hep-th/0206235, to appear in J. Phys.

Wave functions for arbitrary operator ordering in the de Sitter minisuperspace approximation

We derive exact series solutions for the Wheeler-DeWitt equation corresponding to a spatially closed Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe with cosmological constant for arbitrary operator ordering of the scale factor of the universe. The resulting wave functions are those relevant to the approximation which has been widely used in two-dimensional minisuperspace models with an inflationary scalar field for the purpose of predicting the period of inflation which results from competing boundary condition proposals for the wave function of the universe. The problem that Vilenkin's tunneling wave function is not normalizable for general operator orderings, is shown to persist for other values of the spatial curvature, and when additional matter degrees of freedom such as radiation are included.Comment: 12 pages, revTeX-3.

Quantum Cosmology and Open Universes

Quantum creation of Universes with compact spacelike sections that have curvature $k$ either closed, flat or open, i.e. $k=\pm1,0$ are studied. In the flat and open cases, the superpotential of the Wheeler De Witt equation is significantly modified, and as a result the qualitative behaviour of a typical wavefunction differs from the traditional closed case. Using regularity arguments, it is shown that the only consistent state for the wavefunction is the Tunneling one. By computing the quantum probabilities for the curvature of the sections, it is shown that quantum cosmology actually favours that the Universe be open, $k=-1$. In all cases sufficient inflation $\sim 60$ e-foldings is predicted: this is an improvement over classical measures that generally are ambiguous as to whether inflation is certain to occur.Comment: 11 pages, Revtex, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in PRD. New material and important corrections added in response to referee's repor

The Warden Attitude: An investigation of the value of interaction with everyday wildlife

Using a discrete choice experiment, we elicit valuations of engagement with ‘everyday wildlife’ through feeding garden birds. We find that bird-feeding is primarily but not exclusively motivated by the direct consumption value of interaction with wildlife. The implicit valuations given to different species suggest that people prefer birds that have aesthetic appeal and that evoke human feelings of protectiveness. These findings suggest that people derive wellbeing by adopting a warden-like role towards ‘their’ wildlife. We test for external validity by conducting a hedonic analysis of sales of bird food. We discuss some policy implications of the existence of warden attitudes

Biophilic architecture: a review of the rationale and outcomes

Contemporary cities have high stress levels, mental health issues, high crime levels and ill health, while the built environment shows increasing problems with urban heat island effects and air and water pollution. Emerging from these concerns is a new set of design principles and practices where nature needs to play a bigger part called “biophilic architecture”. This design approach asserts that humans have an innate connection with nature that can assist to make buildings and cities more effective human abodes. This paper examines the evidence for this innate human psychological and physiological link to nature and then assesses the emerging research supporting the multiple social, environmental and economic benefits of biophilic architecture

Loop Quantum Cosmology

Quantum gravity is expected to be necessary in order to understand situations where classical general relativity breaks down. In particular in cosmology one has to deal with initial singularities, i.e. the fact that the backward evolution of a classical space-time inevitably comes to an end after a finite amount of proper time. This presents a breakdown of the classical picture and requires an extended theory for a meaningful description. Since small length scales and high curvatures are involved, quantum effects must play a role. Not only the singularity itself but also the surrounding space-time is then modified. One particular realization is loop quantum cosmology, an application of loop quantum gravity to homogeneous systems, which removes classical singularities. Its implications can be studied at different levels. Main effects are introduced into effective classical equations which allow to avoid interpretational problems of quantum theory. They give rise to new kinds of early universe phenomenology with applications to inflation and cyclic models. To resolve classical singularities and to understand the structure of geometry around them, the quantum description is necessary. Classical evolution is then replaced by a difference equation for a wave function which allows to extend space-time beyond classical singularities. One main question is how these homogeneous scenarios are related to full loop quantum gravity, which can be dealt with at the level of distributional symmetric states. Finally, the new structure of space-time arising in loop quantum gravity and its application to cosmology sheds new light on more general issues such as time.Comment: 104 pages, 10 figures; online version, containing 6 movies, available at http://relativity.livingreviews.org/Articles/lrr-2005-11