The MuTHRE Model for High Quality Sub-seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Conference theme 'Digital Water.'Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts, with lead times up to 30 days, can provide valuable information for water management, including reservoir operation to meet environmental flow, irrigation demands, and managing flood protection storage. A key aim is to produce “seamless” probabilistic forecasts, with high quality performance across the full range of lead times (1-30 days) and time scales (daily to monthly). This paper demonstrates that the Multi-Temporal Hydrological Residual Error (MuTHRE) model can address the challenge of “seamless” sub-seasonal forecasting. The MuTHRE model is designed to capture key features of hydrological errors, namely seasonality, dynamic biases due to hydrological non-stationarity, and extreme errors poorly represented by the common Gaussian distribution. The MuTHRE model is evaluated comprehensively over 11 catchments in the MurrayDarling Basin using multiple performance metrics, across a range of lead times, months and years, and at daily and monthly time scales. It is shown to provide “high” improvements, in terms of reliability for short lead times (up to 10 days), in dry months, and dry years. Forecast performance also improved in terms of sharpness. Importantly, improvements are consistent across multiple time scales (daily and monthly). This study highlights the benefits of modelling multiple temporal characteristics of hydrological errors, and demonstrates the power of the MuTHRE model for producing seamless sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts that can be utilized for a wide range of applications.David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczer

Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts

Streamflow forecasting is prone to substantial uncertainty due to errors in meteorological forecasts, hydrological model structure, and parameterization, as well as in the observed rainfall and streamflow data used to calibrate the models. Statistical streamflow post-processing is an important technique available to improve the probabilistic properties of the forecasts. This study evaluates post-processing approaches based on three transformations – logarithmic (Log), log-sinh (Log-Sinh), and Box–Cox with λ=0.2 (BC0.2) – and identifies the best-performing scheme for post-processing monthly and seasonal (3-months-ahead) streamflow forecasts, such as those produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Using the Bureau's operational dynamic streamflow forecasting system, we carry out comprehensive analysis of the three post-processing schemes across 300 Australian catchments with a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Forecast verification is assessed using reliability and sharpness metrics, as well as the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS). Results show that the uncorrected forecasts (i.e. without post-processing) are unreliable at half of the catchments. Post-processing of forecasts substantially improves reliability, with more than 90 % of forecasts classified as reliable. In terms of sharpness, the BC0.2 scheme substantially outperforms the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. Overall, the BC0.2 scheme achieves reliable and sharper-than-climatology forecasts at a larger number of catchments than the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. The improvements in forecast reliability and sharpness achieved using the BC0.2 post-processing scheme will help water managers and users of the forecasting service make better-informed decisions in planning and management of water resources.Fitsum Woldemeskel, David McInerney, Julien Lerat, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Daehyok Shin, Narendra Tuteja and George Kuczer

Financial incentives to improve adherence to anti-psychotic maintenance medication in non-adherent patients - a cluster randomised controlled trial (FIAT)

Background Various interventions have been tested to achieve adherence to anti-psychotic maintenance medication in non-adherent patients with psychotic disorders, and there is no consistent evidence for the effectiveness of any established intervention. The effectiveness of financial incentives in improving adherence to a range of treatments has been demonstrated; no randomised controlled trial however has tested the use of financial incentives to achieve medication adherence for patients with psychotic disorders living in the community. Methods/Design In a cluster randomised controlled trial, 34 mental health teams caring for difficult to engage patients in the community will be randomly allocated to either the intervention group, where patients will be offered a financial incentive for each anti-psychotic depot medication they receive over a 12 month period, or the control group, where all patients will receive treatment as usual. We will recruit 136 patients with psychotic disorders who use these services and who have problems adhering to antipsychotic depot medication, although all conventional methods to achieve adherence have been tried. The primary outcome will be adherence levels, and secondary outcomes are global clinical improvement, number of voluntary and involuntary hospital admissions, number of attempted and completed suicides, incidents of physical violence, number of police arrests, number of days spent in work/training/education, subjective quality of life and satisfaction with medication. We will also establish the cost effectiveness of offering financial incentives. Discussion The study aims to provide new evidence on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of offering financial incentives to patients with psychotic disorders to adhere to antipsychotic maintenance medication. If financial incentives improve adherence and lead to better health and social outcomes, they may be recommended as one option to improve the treatment of non-adherent patients with psychotic disorders. Trial Registration Current controlled trials ISRCTN77769281

Overview of the assessment practices of occupational therapists working in Quebec

Description. L'évaluation du client est primordiale dans la pratique de l'ergothérapie, notamment pour établir les priorités de traitement et pour vérifier l'efficacité des interventions. Les pratiques évaluatives des ergothérapeutes sont cependant peu documentées. But. Dresser un portrait des pratiques évaluatives des ergothérapeutes du Québec selon les dimensions personne-environnement-occupation et les clientèles. Méthodologie. Une enquête transversale a été réalisée à l'aide d'un sondage en ligne envoyé aux ergothérapeutes du Québec. Résultats. En pédiatrie, les ergothérapeutes utilisent majoritairement des outils standardisés des aptitudes physiques et neurologiques. L'évaluation d'adultes cible principalement les aptitudes physiques et la productivité. Auprès des aînés, l'évaluation repose surtout sur les aspects fonctionnels, particulièrement les aptitudes physiques, les soins personnels et la sécurité à domicile, et sur le dépistage des difficultés cognitives. Implications pour la pratique. L'évaluation ergothérapique serait généralement axée sur les aptitudes physiques. Pour assurer une approche holistique, l'occupation et l'environnement devraient être davantage considérés dans l'évaluation.Abstract : Background. In occupational therapy practice, client assessments are essential for establishing treatment priorities and determining the effectiveness of interventions. However, occupational therapists' assessment practices are not well documented. Purpose. This work aimed to provide an overview of the assessment practices of Quebec occupational therapists based on the person–environment–occupation components and clienteles. Method. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using an online survey that was sent to occupational therapists in Quebec. Findings. In paediatrics, occupational therapists tend to use standardized tools to assess physical and neurological abilities. Adult assessment focuses mainly on physical abilities and productivity. For seniors, assessment focuses mainly on functional aspects (physical abilities, personal care, and home safety) and screening for cognitive difficulties. Implications. Occupational therapy assessment mostly focuses on physicial abilities. To ensure a holistic approach, more occupational and environmental components should be included in the assessment practices

Acoustic analysis of speech through a hearing aid: Consonant-vowel ratio effects with two-channel compression amplification

In this study, the consonant-vowel ratio (CVR) changes associated with varying the compression ratio and crossover frequency of two-channel syllabic compression amplification were examined. Consonant-vowel syllables were recorded at 60 and 75 dB SPL input levels to the hearing aid under 13 different amplification conditions: 12 compression conditions and a condition that used linear amplification in both channels. Syllables consisted of voiceless stops, fricatives, and affricates combined with the vowels /a/, /i/, and /u/. Acoustic analysis of the processed syllables indicated that the CVR was generally increased with compression, compared to linear amplification, and that the effects were greatest for amplification with compression in the high-frequency channel. In addition, higher CVRs were obtained when the crossover frequency was raised. Compression in the low-frequency channel had the least effect on CVR. As previous research has indicated that CVR may serve as a cue to the perception of some consonant sounds by people with hearing impairment, the results suggest the need for caution with the application of high-frequency channel compression until the perceptual effects are fully investigated