Divergent Goals and Commitments in Global Malaria Intervention

Anthony Kiszewski discusses the implications of a new study that finds that global malaria funding remains inadequate

Possession and Usage of Insecticidal Bed Nets among the People of Uganda: Is BRAC Uganda Health Programme Pursuing a Pro-Poor Path?

The use of insecticidal bed nets is found to be an effective public health tool for control of malaria, especially for under-five children and pregnant women. BRAC, an indigenous Bangladeshi non-governmental development organization, started working in the East African state of Uganda in June 2006. As part of its efforts to improve the health and well-being of its participants, BRAC Uganda has been distributing long lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN) at a subsidized price through health volunteers since February 2008. This study was conducted in March-April 2009 to examine how equitable the programme had been in consistence with BRAC Uganda's pro-poor policy

High Effective Coverage of Vector Control Interventions in Children After Achieving Low Malaria Transmission in Zanzibar, Tanzania.

\ud \ud Formerly a high malaria transmission area, Zanzibar is now targeting malaria elimination. A major challenge is to avoid resurgence of malaria, the success of which includes maintaining high effective coverage of vector control interventions such as bed nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS). In this study, caretakers' continued use of preventive measures for their children is evaluated, following a sharp reduction in malaria transmission. A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted in June 2009 in North A and Micheweni districts in Zanzibar. Households were randomly selected using two-stage cluster sampling. Interviews were conducted with 560 caretakers of under-five-year old children, who were asked about perceptions on the malaria situation, vector control, household assets, and intention for continued use of vector control as malaria burden further decreases. Effective coverage of vector control interventions for under-five children remains high, although most caretakers (65%; 363/560) did not perceive malaria as presently being a major health issue. Seventy percent (447/643) of the under-five children slept under a long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) and 94% (607/643) were living in houses targeted with IRS. In total, 98% (628/643) of the children were covered by at least one of the vector control interventions. Seasonal bed-net use for children was reported by 25% (125/508) of caretakers of children who used bed nets. A high proportion of caretakers (95%; 500/524) stated that they intended to continue using preventive measures for their under-five children as malaria burden further reduces. Malaria risk perceptions and different perceptions of vector control were not found to be significantly associated with LLIN effective coverage While the majority of caretakers felt that malaria had been reduced in Zanzibar, effective coverage of vector control interventions remained high. Caretakers appreciated the interventions and recognized the value of sustaining their use. Thus, sustaining high effective coverage of vector control interventions, which is crucial for reaching malaria elimination in Zanzibar, can be achieved by maintaining effective delivery of these interventions

Simulated Impact of RTS,S/AS01 Vaccination Programs in the Context of Changing Malaria Transmission

INTRODUCTION: The RTS,S/AS01 pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine is in phase III clinical trials. It is critical to anticipate where and how it should be implemented if trials are successful. Such planning may be complicated by changing levels of malaria transmission. METHODS/RESULTS: Computer simulations were used to examine RTS,S/AS01 impact, using a vaccine profile based on phase II trial results, and assuming that protection decays only slowly. Settings were simulated in which baseline transmission (in the absence of vaccine) was fixed or varied between 2 and 20 infectious mosquito bites per person per annum (ibpa) over ten years. Four delivery strategies were studied: routine infant immunization (EPI), EPI plus infant catch-up, EPI plus school-based campaigns, and EPI plus mass campaigns. Impacts in changing transmission settings were similar to those in fixed settings. Assuming a persistent effect of vaccination, at 2 ibpa, the vaccine averted approximately 5-7 deaths per 1000 doses of vaccine when delivered via mass campaigns, but the benefit was less at higher transmission levels. EPI, catch-up and school-based strategies averted 2-3 deaths per 1000 doses in settings with 2 ibpa. In settings where transmission was decreasing or increasing, EPI, catch-up and school-based strategies averted approximately 3-4 deaths per 1000 doses. DISCUSSION: Where transmission is changing, it appears to be sufficient to consider simulations of pre-erythrocytic vaccine impact at a range of initial transmission levels. At 2 ibpa, mass campaigns averted the most deaths and reduced transmission, but this requires further study. If delivered via EPI, RTS,S/AS01 could avert approximately 6-11 deaths per 1000 vaccinees in all examined settings, similar to estimates for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in African infants. These results support RTS,S/AS01 implementation via EPI, for example alongside vector control interventions, providing that the phase III trials provide support for our assumptions about efficacy

Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rainfall data have potential use for malaria prediction. However, the relationship between rainfall and the number of malaria cases is indirect and complex.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The statistical relationships between monthly malaria case count data series and monthly mean rainfall series (extracted from interpolated station data) over the period 1972 – 2005 in districts in Sri Lanka was explored in four analyses: cross-correlation; cross-correlation with pre-whitening; inter-annual; and seasonal inter-annual regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For most districts, strong positive correlations were found for malaria time series lagging zero to three months behind rainfall, and negative correlations were found for malaria time series lagging four to nine months behind rainfall. However, analysis with pre-whitening showed that most of these correlations were spurious. Only for a few districts, weak positive (at lags zero and one) or weak negative (at lags two to six) correlations were found in pre-whitened series. Inter-annual analysis showed strong negative correlations between malaria and rainfall for a group of districts in the centre-west of the country. Seasonal inter-annual analysis showed that the effect of rainfall on malaria varied according to the season and geography.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Seasonally varying effects of rainfall on malaria case counts may explain weak overall cross-correlations found in pre-whitened series, and should be taken into account in malaria predictive models making use of rainfall as a covariate.</p

Effect of meteorological factors on clinical malaria risk among children: an assessment using village-based meteorological stations and community-based parasitological survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Temperature, rainfall and humidity have been widely associated with the dynamics of malaria vector population and, therefore, with spread of the disease. However, at the local scale, there is a lack of a systematic quantification of the effect of these factors on malaria transmission. Further, most attempts to quantify this effect are based on proxy meteorological data acquired from satellites or interpolated from a different scale. This has led to controversies about the contribution of climate change to malaria transmission risk among others. Our study addresses the original question of relating meteorological factors measured at the local scale with malaria infection, using data collected at the same time and scale.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>676 children (6–59 months) were selected randomly from three ecologically different sites (urban and rural). During weekly home visits between December 1, 2003, and November 30, 2004, fieldworkers tested children with fever for clinical malaria. They also collected data on possible confounders monthly. Digital meteorological stations measured ambient temperature, humidity, and rainfall in each site. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of clinical malaria given the previous month's meteorological conditions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall incidence of clinical malaria over the study period was 1.07 episodes per child. Meteorological factors were associated with clinical malaria with mean temperature having the largest effect.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Temperature was the best predictor for clinical malaria among children under five. A systematic measurement of local temperature through ground stations and integration of such data in the routine health information system could support assessment of malaria transmission risk at the district level for well-targeted control efforts.</p

Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

Can universal insecticide-treated net campaigns achieve equity in coverage and use? the case of northern Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are effective tools for malaria prevention and can significantly reduce severe disease and mortality due to malaria, especially among children under five in endemic areas. However, ITN coverage and use remain low and inequitable among different socio-economic groups in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria. Several strategies have been proposed to increase coverage and use and reduce inequity in Nigeria, including free distribution campaigns recently conducted by the Nigerian federal government. Using data from the first post-campaign survey, the authors investigated the effect of the mass free distribution campaigns in achieving equity in household ownership and use of ITNs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A post-campaign survey was undertaken in November 2009 in northern Nigeria to assess the effect of the campaigns in addressing equity across different socio-economic groups. The survey included 987 households randomly selected from 60 clusters in Kano state. Using logistic regression and the Lorenz concentration curve and index, the authors assessed equity in ITN coverage and use.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ITN ownership coverage increased from 10% before the campaigns to 70%-a more than fivefold increase. The campaigns reduced the ownership coverage gap by 75%, effectively reaching parity among wealth quintiles (Concentration index 0.02, 95% CI (-0.02 ; 0.05) versus 0.21 95%CI (0.08 ; 0.34) before the campaigns). ITN use (individuals reporting having slept under an ITN the night before the survey visit) among individuals from households owning at least one ITN, was 53.1% with no statistically significant difference between the lowest, second, third and fourth wealth quintiles and the highest wealth quintile (lowest: odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.67 ; 1.13); second: OR 0.85, 95% CI (0.66 ; 1.24); third: OR 1.10 95% CI (0.86 ; 1.4) and fourth OR 0.91 95% CI (0.72 ; 1.15).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The campaign had a significant impact by increasing ITN coverage and reducing inequity in ownership and use. Free ITN distribution campaigns should be sustained to increase equitable coverage. These campaigns should be supplemented with other ITN distribution strategies to cover newborns and replace aging nets.</p

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission: a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide

Seasonal and geographic differences in treatment-seeking and household cost of febrile illness among children in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Households in malaria endemic countries experience considerable costs in accessing formal health facilities because of childhood malaria. The Ministry of Health in Malawi has defined certain villages as hard-to-reach on the basis of either their distance from health facilities or inaccessibility. Some of these villages have been assigned a community health worker, responsible for referring febrile children to a health facility. Health facility utilization and household costs of attending a health facility were compared between individuals living near the district hospital and those in hard-to-reach villages. METHODS: Two cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in the Chikhwawa district of Malawi; one during each of the wet and dry seasons. Half the participating villages were located near the hospital, the others were in areas defined as hard-to-reach. Data were collected on attendance to formal health facilities and economic costs incurred due to recent childhood febrile illness. RESULTS: Those living in hard-to-reach villages were less likely to attend a formal health facility compared to those living near the hospital (Dry season: OR 0.35, 95%CI0.18-0.67; Wet season: OR 0.46, 95%CI0.27-0.80). Analyses including community health workers (CHW) as a source of formal health-care decreased the strength of this relationship, and suggested that consulting a CHW may reduce attendance at health facilities, even if indicated. Although those in hard-to-reach villages were still less likely to attend in both the dry (OR 0.53, 95%CI 0.25-1.11) and wet (OR 0.60, 95%CI 0.37-0.98) seasons. Household costs for those who attended a health facility were greater for those in HTR villages (Dry: USD5.24; Wet: USD5.60) than for those living near the district hospital (Dry: USD3.45; Wet: USD4.46). CONCLUSION: Those living in hard-to-reach areas were less likely to attend a health facility for a childhood febrile event and experienced greater associated household costs. Consulting CHWs was infrequent, but appeared to reduce attendance at a health facility, even when indicated. Health service planners must consider geographic and financial barriers to accessing public health facilities in designing appropriate interventions