Modelling the impact of policies to reduce environmental impacts in the New Zealand dairy sector

Agriculture remains a major sector of the New Zealand economy, with the vast majority of farm and food production exported. The accelerating intensification of farming in New Zealand over recent decades raises concern over the current sustainability of New Zealand farming, and whether it can remain so in the future. In this study, we focus on the impacts of policies to reduce environmental impacts of dairy farming, with a particular focus on nitrogen pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. We use a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database, with improved specification of the agricultural sector and land-use. We augment the model with environmental indicators for New Zealand, including nitrogen balances and GHG emissions. We simulate a range of scenarios involving reductions in fertiliser use and stocking rates on dairy farms, from an updated 2010 database. In particular, we consider seven scenarios, with the objective of exploring reductions in the dairy stocking rate and the application of nitrogenous fertiliser to dairy farms to target reductions in the dairy sector’s nitrogen balance of 10%, 20% and 30%. Reducing fertiliser use and stocking rates are two of the approaches that dairy farmers can take in order to reduce their emissions of nitrogen and GHGs. Our results suggest that the nitrogen balance could be reduced by 10% with a 16% cut in nitrogenous fertiliser and a 5% fall in the stocking rate. Reducing fertiliser use and stocking rate by 31% and 11% respectively could result in a 20% cut to the dairy sector’s nitrogen balance. To achieve a 30% reduction in the nitrogen balance, our results suggest that the cut back in fertiliser use would need to be 45%, with the stocking rate reduced by 19%. Across these scenarios, our results indicate that value added in the dairy farm sector could fall by between 2% and 13%, while export earnings from dairy products may fall by between US$269 million and US$1,145 million

The current round of agricultural trade negotiations: Should we bother about domestic support?

The current WTO agricultural trade negotiations began in March 2000, and became part of the Doha Round in late 2001. The previous Uruguay Round reached agreements in the areas of market access, export competition and domestic support. The current Round is seeking agreements under similar headings. Reaching agreement over reductions in domestic support to farmers is complicated by a number of factors, such as the extent to which such support impacts on production decisions, the wishes of governments to support farmers for pursuing multifunctional outcomes from agriculture, and the categorisation of a myriad of policy instruments into green, blue and amber boxes. It therefore poses the risk of considerably extending the negotiations and diverting attention away from other areas of reform. But the sustainabilility of many domestic support policies requires imposition of trade barriers so reform of trade barriers may force governments into reforming domestic support without requiring specific international agreements. Quantitative assessment, using the GTAP applied general equilibrium model is used to analyse trade reform scenarios, with and without specific changes in domestic support. It is concluded that substantial trade expansion and welfare gains can be achieved even when domestic support is excluded from the multilateral agreement, and that improved market access makes a far greater contribution to welfare gains than reforms to domestic policies. Once substantive reforms to border policies have been achieved, attention can then be turned to the lower-priority task of reforming domestic support

Gaussian random waves in elastic media

Similar to the Berry conjecture of quantum chaos we consider elastic analogue which incorporates longitudinal and transverse elastic displacements with corresponding wave vectors. Based on that we derive the correlation functions for amplitudes and intensities of elastic displacements. Comparison to numerics in a quarter Bunimovich stadium demonstrates excellent agreement.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

The Mersey Estuary : sediment geochemistry

This report describes a study of the geochemistry of the Mersey estuary carried out between April 2000 and December 2002. The study was the first in a new programme of surveys of the geochemistry of major British estuaries aimed at enhancing our knowledge and understanding of the distribution of contaminants in estuarine sediments. The report first summarises the physical setting, historical development, geology, hydrography and bathymetry of the Mersey estuary and its catchment. Details of the sampling and analytical programmes are then given followed by a discussion of the sedimentology and geochemistry. The chemistry of the water column and suspended particulate matter have not been studied, the chief concern being with the geochemistry of the surface and near-surface sediments of the Mersey estuary and an examination of their likely sources and present state of contamination

Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Fractional Klein-Kramers equation for superdiffusive transport: normal versus anomalous time evolution in a differential L{\'e}vy walk model

We introduce a fractional Klein-Kramers equation which describes sub-ballistic superdiffusion in phase space in the presence of a space-dependent external force field. This equation defines the differential L{\'e}vy walk model whose solution is shown to be non-negative. In the velocity coordinate, the probability density relaxes in Mittag-Leffler fashion towards the Maxwell distribution whereas in the space coordinate, no stationary solution exists and the temporal evolution of moments exhibits a competition between Brownian and anomalous contributions.Comment: 4 pages, REVTe

Charge Fluctuation Forces Between Stiff Polyelectrolytes in Salt Solution: Pairwise Summability Re-examined

We formulate low-frequency charge-fluctuation forces between charged cylinders - parallel or skewed - in salt solution: forces from dipolar van der Waals fluctuations and those from the correlated monopolar fluctuations of mobile ions. At high salt concentrations forces are exponentially screened. In low-salt solutions dipolar energies go as $R^{-5}$ or $R^{-4}$; monopolar energies vary as $R^{-1}$ or $\ln{R}$, where $R$ is the minimal separation between cylinders. However, pairwise summability of rod-rod forces is easily violated in low-salt conditions. Perhaps the most important result is not the derivation of pair potentials but rather the demonstration that some of these expressions may not be used for the very problems that originally motivated their derivation.Comment: 8 pages and 1 fig in ps forma

Calculation of atomic spontaneous emission rate in 1D finite photonic crystal with defects

We derive the expression for spontaneous emission rate in finite one-dimensional photonic crystal with arbitrary defects using the effective resonator model to describe electromagnetic field distributions in the structure. We obtain explicit formulas for contributions of different types of modes, i.e. radiation, substrate and guided modes. Formal calculations are illustrated with a few numerical examples, which demonstrate that the application of effective resonator model simplifies interpretation of results.Comment: Cent. Eur. J. Phys, in pres

Occurrence of periodic Lam\'e functions at bifurcations in chaotic Hamiltonian systems

We investigate cascades of isochronous pitchfork bifurcations of straight-line librating orbits in some two-dimensional Hamiltonian systems with mixed phase space. We show that the new bifurcated orbits, which are responsible for the onset of chaos, are given analytically by the periodic solutions of the Lam\'e equation as classified in 1940 by Ince. In Hamiltonians with C_${2v}$ symmetry, they occur alternatingly as Lam\'e functions of period 2K and 4K, respectively, where 4K is the period of the Jacobi elliptic function appearing in the Lam\'e equation. We also show that the two pairs of orbits created at period-doubling bifurcations of touch-and-go type are given by two different linear combinations of algebraic Lam\'e functions with period 8K.Comment: LaTeX2e, 22 pages, 14 figures. Version 3: final form of paper, accepted by J. Phys. A. Changes in Table 2; new reference [25]; name of bifurcations "touch-and-go" replaced by "island-chain

Genetics of human neural tube defects

Neural tube defects (NTDs) are common, severe congenital malformations whose causation involves multiple genes and environmental factors. Although more than 200 genes are known to cause NTDs in mice, there has been rather limited progress in delineating the molecular basis underlying most human NTDs. Numerous genetic studies have been carried out to investigate candidate genes in cohorts of patients, with particular reference to those that participate in folate one-carbon metabolism. Although the homocysteine remethylation gene MTHFR has emerged as a risk factor in some human populations, few other consistent findings have resulted from this approach. Similarly, attention focused on the human homologues of mouse NTD genes has contributed only limited positive findings to date, although an emerging association between genes of the non-canonical Wnt (planar cell polarity) pathway and NTDs provides candidates for future studies. Priorities for the next phase of this research include: (i) larger studies that are sufficiently powered to detect significant associations with relatively minor risk factors; (ii) analysis of multiple candidate genes in groups of well-genotyped individuals to detect possible gene–gene interactions; (iii) use of high throughput genomic technology to evaluate the role of copy number variants and to detect ‘private’ and regulatory mutations, neither of which have been studied to date; (iv) detailed analysis of patient samples stratified by phenotype to enable, for example, hypothesis-driven testing of candidates genes in groups of NTDs with specific defects of folate metabolism, or in groups of fetuses with well-defined phenotypes such as craniorachischisis