Misinformation and Trusted Voices

Dr Ozge Ozduzen (Lecturer in Digital Media & Society at University of Sheffield), Dr Billur Aslan Ozgul (Lecturer in Political Communication at Brunel University London), and Dr Nelli Ferenczi (Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Brunel University London) (MTV0044) Inquiry Misinformation and trusted voices (Inquiry) available online at https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/438/culture-media-and-sport-subcommittee-on-online-harms-and-disinformation/publications/written-evidence/?SearchTerm=Ozduzen&DateFrom=&DateTo=&SessionId= .This submission focuses on misinformation and trusted voices. Our answers are based on a research project on community mistrust and vaccine hesitancy, funded by the British Academy, the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) and the Science and Innovation Network in the USA (SIN USA) between 2021 and 2022. The project investigates the impact of historical marginalisation, social exclusion, official communication, and community mistrust on the discursive and social production of vaccine hesitancy on both social media platforms and in physical spaces in the United Kingdom and United States of America (see Ozduzen et al. 2022). We conducted in-depth interviews, focus groups, and systematic social media data analysis to uncover the experiences, beliefs and opinions of our research participants. Although our focus was on vaccine engagement of minoritised communities, we also investigated the ways that vaccine hesitant individuals in the UK consume information and misinformation content and engage with their respective sources. We finally analysed their reaction to official governmental information on vaccines and other health information, scientific advice, and health initiativesBritish Academy; the Social Science Research Council (SSRC); the Science and Innovation Network in the USA (SIN USA)

"Medicine is still against Black people": Mapping and visualising intersections of social inequalities, community mistrust, and vaccine hesitancy in online and physical spaces in the UK and US

Funded by the British Academy, this report is part of a research project entitled “Mapping and visualising intersections of social inequalities, community mistrust, and vaccine hesitancy in online and physical spaces in the UK and US”. The report investigates social, cultural, and political factors underlying vaccine hesitant beliefs and ideas among minoritised communities in the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (US). The data is collected through interviews and focus groups with vaccine-hesitant individuals within various religiously, ethnically, and racially minoritised communities, interviews with medical practitioners, and through thematic analysis of vaccine communication in Twitter and Telegram during the COVID-19 pandemic

Chromosome-level genome assembly for the Aldabra giant tortoise enables insights into the genetic health of a threatened population

The Aldabra giant tortoise (Aldabrachelys gigantea) is one of only two giant tortoise species left in the world. The species is endemic to Aldabra Atoll in Seychelles and is considered vulnerable due to its limited distribution and threats posed by climate change. Genomic resources for A. gigantea are lacking, hampering conservation efforts focused on both wild and ex-situ populations. A high-quality genome would also open avenues to investigate the genetic basis of the exceptionally long lifespan. Here, we produced the first chromosome-level de novo genome assembly of A. gigantea using PacBio High-Fidelity sequencing and high-throughput chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C). We produced a 2.37 Gbp assembly with a scaffold N50 of 148.6 Mbp and a resolution into 26 chromosomes. RNAseq-assisted gene model prediction identified 23,953 protein-coding genes and 1.1 Gbp of repetitive sequences. Synteny analyses among turtle genomes revealed high levels of chromosomal collinearity even among distantly related taxa. We also performed a low-coverage re-sequencing of 30 individuals from wild populations and two zoo individuals. Our genome-wide population structure analyses detected genetic population structure in the wild and identified the most likely origin of the zoo-housed individuals. The high-quality chromosome-level reference genome for A. gigantea is one of the most complete turtle genomes available. It is a powerful tool to assess the population structure in the wild population and reveal the geographic origins of ex-situ individuals relevant for genetic diversity management and rewilding efforts

Low‐coverage reduced representation sequencing reveals subtle within‐island genetic structure in Aldabra giant tortoises

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The sequencing data that support the findings of this study are available at the NCBI Sequence Read Archive with the accession numbers SRX10954672–SRX10954704.Aldabrachelys gigantea (Aldabra giant tortoise) is one of only two giant tortoise species left in the world and survives as a single wild population of over 100,000 individuals on Aldabra Atoll, Seychelles. Despite this large current population size, the species faces an uncertain future because of its extremely restricted distribution range and high vulnerability to the projected consequences of climate change. Captive-bred A. gigantea are increasingly used in rewilding programs across the region, where they are introduced to replace extinct giant tortoises in an attempt to functionally resurrect degraded island ecosystems. However, there has been little consideration of the current levels of genetic variation and differentiation within and among the islands on Aldabra. As previous microsatellite studies were inconclusive, we combined low-coverage and double-digest restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing to analyze samples from 33 tortoises (11 from each main island). Using 5426 variant sites within the tortoise genome, we detected patterns of within-island population structure, but no differentiation between the islands. These unexpected results highlight the importance of using genome-wide genetic markers to capture higher-resolution genetic structure to inform future management plans, even in a seemingly panmictic population. We show that low-coverage ddRAD sequencing provides an affordable alternative approach to conservation genomic projects of non-model species with large genomes.Swiss Government Excellence Scholarship for PostdocsUniversity of ZürichSwiss National Science FoundationGeorges and Antoine Claraz Foundatio

Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

Approximately 25 % of mammals are threatened globally with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change1. Persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, on population dynamics2. Thus, to quantify which species and places on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how demographic rates respond to climate is needed3. We synthesise information on such responses in terrestrial mammals, where extensive demographic data are available4. Given the importance of assessing the full spectrum of responses, we focus on studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We identify 106 such studies, corresponding to 86 mammal species. We reveal a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognised as most vulnerable to climate change5,6. Moreover, we show that the effects of climate change on mammals will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others. Assessments of population viability under climate change therefore need to account for multiple demographic responses. We advocate to prioritise coordinated actions to assess mammal demography holistically for effective conservation worldwide

The Cultural Value of Shakespeare Lives 2016 Research Report

The The cultural value of Shakespeare Lives 2016 project is available at https://www.open.ac.uk/researchprojects/diasporas/cvp/shakespeare-lives-2016.The British Council commissioned the Open University to develop an evaluation plan for Shakespeare Lives (SL) in 2016 based on the Cultural Value Model, a methodological tool devised by the Open University in collaboration with the British Council that offers an innovative and comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of the British Council’s Cultural Relations Programmes. The Cultural Value Model combines existing performance assessment data gathered by the British Council with additional qualitative and quantitative data collected by The Open University as part of the project.British Counci

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Identifying the Age Cohort Responsible for Transmission in a Natural Outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica

Identifying the major routes of disease transmission and reservoirs of infection are needed to increase our understanding of disease dynamics and improve disease control. Despite this, transmission events are rarely observed directly. Here we had the unique opportunity to study natural transmission of Bordetella bronchiseptica – a directly transmitted respiratory pathogen with a wide mammalian host range, including sporadic infection of humans – within a commercial rabbitry to evaluate the relative effects of sex and age on the transmission dynamics therein. We did this by developing an a priori set of hypotheses outlining how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We discriminated between these hypotheses by using force-of-infection estimates coupled with random effects binomial regression analysis of B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data from within our rabbit population. Force-of-infection analysis allowed us to quantify the apparent prevalence of B. bronchiseptica while correcting for age structure. To determine whether transmission is largely within social groups (in this case litter), or from an external group, we used random-effect binomial regression to evaluate the importance of social mixing in disease spread. Between these two approaches our results support young weanlings – as opposed to, for example, breeder or maternal cohorts – as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission. Thus age-prevalence data, which is relatively easy to gather in clinical or agricultural settings, can be used to evaluate contact patterns and infer the likely age-cohort responsible for transmission of directly transmitted infections. These insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective long-term disease control

Age and sex influence marmot antipredator behavior during periods of heightened risk

Animals adjust their antipredator behavior according to environmental variation in risk, and to account for their ability to respond to threats. Intrinsic factors that influence an animal’s ability to respond to predators (e.g., age, body condition) should explain variation in antipredator behavior. For example, a juvenile might allocate more time to vigilance than an adult because mortality as a result of predation is often high for this age class; however, the relationship between age/vulnerability and antipredator behavior is not always clear or as predicted. We explored the influence of intrinsic factors on yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) antipredator behavior using data pooled from 4 years of experiments. We hypothesized that inherently vulnerable animals (e.g., young, males, and individuals in poor condition) would exhibit more antipredator behavior prior to and immediately following conspecific alarm calls. As expected, males and yearlings suppressed foraging more than females and adults following alarm call playbacks. In contrast to predictions, animals in better condition respond more than animals in below average condition. Interestingly, these intrinsic properties did not influence baseline time budgets; animals of all ages, sexes, and condition levels devoted comparable amounts of time to foraging prior to alarm calls. Our results support the hypothesis that inherent differences in vulnerability influence antipredator behavior; furthermore, it appears that a crucial, but poorly acknowledged, interaction exists between risk and state-dependence. Elevated risk may be required to reveal the workings of state-dependent behavior, and studies of antipredator behavior in a single context may draw incomplete conclusions about age- or sex-specific strategies