The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States

Governments issue "stay-at-home" orders to reduce the spread of contagious diseases, but the magnitude of such orders' effectiveness remains uncertain. In the United States these orders were not coordinated at the national level during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which creates an opportunity to use spatial and temporal variation to measure the policies' effect. Here, we combine data on the timing of stay-at-home orders with daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatalities at the county level during the first seven weeks of the outbreak in the United States. We estimate the association between stay-at-home orders and alterations in COVID-19 cases and fatalities using a difference-in-differences design that accounts for unmeasured local variation in factors like health systems and demographics and for unmeasured temporal variation in factors like national mitigation actions and access to tests. Compared to counties that did not implement stay-at-home orders, the results show that the orders are associated with a 30.2 percent (11.0 to 45.2) average reduction in weekly incident cases after one week, a 40.0 percent (23.4 to 53.0) reduction after two weeks, and a 48.6 percent (31.1 to 61.7) reduction after three weeks. Stay-at-home orders are also associated with a 59.8 percent (18.3 to 80.2) average reduction in weekly fatalities after three weeks. These results suggest that stay-at-home orders might have reduced confirmed cases by 390,000 (170,000 to 680,000) and fatalities by 41,000 (27,000 to 59,000) within the first three weeks in localities that implemented stay-at-home orders

Campus smoking policies and smoking-related Twitter posts originating from California public universities: Retrospective study

BACKGROUND: The number of colleges and universities with smoke- or tobacco-free campus policies has been increasing. The effects of campus smoking policies on overall sentiment, particularly among young adult populations, are more difficult to assess owing to the changing tobacco and e-cigarette product landscape and differential attitudes toward policy implementation and enforcement. OBJECTIVE: The goal of the study was to retrospectively assess the campus climate toward tobacco use by comparing tweets from California universities with and those without smoke- or tobacco-free campus policies. METHODS: Geolocated Twitter posts from 2015 were collected using the Twitter public application programming interface in combination with cloud computing services on Amazon Web Services. Posts were filtered for tobacco products and behavior-related keywords. A total of 42,877,339 posts were collected from 2015, with 2837 originating from a University of California or California State University system campus, and 758 of these manually verified as being about smoking. Chi-square tests were conducted to determine if there were significant differences in tweet user sentiments between campuses that were smoke- or tobacco-free (all University of California campuses and California State University, Fullerton) compared to those that were not. A separate content analysis of tweets included in chi-square tests was conducted to identify major themes by campus smoking policy status. RESULTS: The percentage of positive sentiment tweets toward tobacco use was higher on campuses without a smoke- or tobacco-free campus policy than on campuses with a smoke- or tobacco-free campus policy (76.7% vs 66.4%, P=.03). Higher positive sentiment on campuses without a smoke- or tobacco-free campus policy may have been driven by general comments about one’s own smoking behavior and comments about smoking as a general behavior. Positive sentiment tweets originating from campuses without a smoke- or tobacco-free policy had greater variation in tweet type, which may have also contributed to differences in sentiment among universities. CONCLUSIONS: Our study introduces preliminary data suggesting that campus smoke- and tobacco-free policies are associated with a reduction in positive sentiment toward smoking. However, continued expressions and intentions to smoke and reports of one’s own smoking among Twitter users suggest a need for more research to better understand the dynamics between implementation of smoke- and tobacco-free policies and resulting tobacco behavioral sentiment

Late Neogene chronology: New perspectives in high-resolution stratigraphy

We present an integrated geochronology for late Neogene time (Pliocene, Pleistocene, and Holocene Epochs) based on an analysis of data from stable isotopes, magnetostratigraphy, radiochronology, and calcareous plankton biostratigraphy. Discrepancies between recently formulated astronomical chronologies and magnetochronologies for the past 6 m.y. have been resolved on the basis of new, high-precision Ar/Ar ages in the younger part of this interval, the so-called Brunhes, Matuyama, and Gauss Epochs (= Chrons C1n-C2An; 0-3.58 Ma), and revised analysis of sea floor anomalies in the Pacific Ocean in the older part, the so-called Gilbert Epoch (= Chron C2Ar-C3r; 3.58-5.89 Ma). The magneto- and astrochronologies are now concordant back to the Chron C3r/C3An boundary at 5.89 Ma. The Neogene (Miocene, Pliocene, Pleistocene, and Holocene) and Paleogene are treated here as period/system subdivisions of the Cenozoic Era/Erathem, replacements for the antiquated terms Tertiary and Quaternary. The boundary between the Miocene and Pliocene Series (Messinian/Zanclean Stages), whose global stratotype section and point (GSSP) is currently proposed to be in Sicily, is located within the reversed interval just below the Thvera (C3n.4n) Magnetic Polarity Subchronozone with an estimated age of 5.32 Ma. The Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary, whose GSSP is located at Vrica (Calabria, Italy), is located near the top of the Olduvai (C2n) Magnetic Polarity Subchronozone with an estimated age of 1.81 Ma. The 13 calcareous nannoplankton and 48 planktonic foraminiferal datum events for the Pliocene, and 12 calcareous nannoplankton and 10 planktonic foraminiferal datum events for the Pleistocene, are calibrated to the newly revised late Neogene astronomical/geomagnetic polarity time scale

Expanding the measurement of culture with a sample of two billion humans

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordData accessibility: Data and code will be available at the paper’s repository on OSF (http://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/A2BTR) and in a public repository in Github (https://github.com/measuring-culture). The data description is provided in electronic supplementary material [85].Culture has played a pivotal role in human evolution. Yet, the ability of social scientists to study culture is limited by the currently available measurement instruments. Scholars of culture must regularly choose between scalable but sparse survey-based methods or restricted but rich ethnographic methods. Here, we demonstrate that massive online social networks can advance the study of human culture by providing quantitative, scalable and high-resolution measurement of behaviourally revealed cultural values and preferences. We employ data across nearly 60 000 topic dimensions drawn from two billion Facebook users across 225 countries and territories. We first validate that cultural distances calculated from this measurement instrument correspond to traditional survey-based and objective measures of cross-national cultural differences. We then demonstrate that this expanded measure enables rich insight into the cultural landscape globally at previously impossible resolution. We analyse the importance of national borders in shaping culture and compare subnational divisiveness with gender divisiveness across countries. Our measure enables detailed investigation into the geopolitical stability of countries, social cleavages within small- and large-scale human groups, the integration of migrant populations and the disaffection of certain population groups from the political process, among myriad other potential future applications.European Union Horizon 2020Comunidad de Madrid-SpainFundacion BBVASpanish Ministry of Education with the FPU programm

Mobile Phone Data for Children on the Move: Challenges and Opportunities

Today, 95% of the global population has 2G mobile phone coverage and the number of individuals who own a mobile phone is at an all time high. Mobile phones generate rich data on billions of people across different societal contexts and have in the last decade helped redefine how we do research and build tools to understand society. As such, mobile phone data has the potential to revolutionize how we tackle humanitarian problems, such as the many suffered by refugees all over the world. While promising, mobile phone data and the new computational approaches bring both opportunities and challenges. Mobile phone traces contain detailed information regarding people's whereabouts, social life, and even financial standing. Therefore, developing and adopting strategies that open data up to the wider humanitarian and international development community for analysis and research while simultaneously protecting the privacy of individuals is of paramount importance. Here we outline the challenging situation of children on the move and actions UNICEF is pushing in helping displaced children and youth globally, and discuss opportunities where mobile phone data can be used. We identify three key challenges: data access, data and algorithmic bias, and operationalization of research, which need to be addressed if mobile phone data is to be successfully applied in humanitarian contexts.Comment: 13 pages, book chapte