Learning from global emissions scenarios

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production

Demography and disorders of the French Bulldog population under primary veterinary care in the UK in 2013

Abstract Background Despite its Gallic name, the French Bulldog is a breed of both British and French origin that was first recognised by The Kennel Club in 1906. The French Bulldog has demonstrated recent rapid rises in Kennel Club registrations and is now (2017) the second most commonly registered pedigree breed in the UK. However, the breed has been reported to be predisposed to several disorders including ocular, respiratory, neurological and dermatological problems. The VetCompass™ Programme collates de-identified clinical data from primary-care veterinary practices in the UK for epidemiological research. Using VetCompass™ clinical data, this study aimed to characterise the demography and common disorders of the general population of French Bulldogs under veterinary care in the UK. Results French Bulldogs comprised 2228 (0.49%) of 445,557 study dogs under veterinary care during 2013. Annual proportional birth rates showed that the proportional ownership of French Bulldog puppies rose steeply from 0.02% of the annual birth cohort attending VetCompass™ practices in 2003 to 1.46% in 2013. The median age of the French Bulldogs overall was 1.3 years (IQR 0.6–2.5, range 0.0–13.0). The most common colours of French Bulldogs were brindle (solid or main) (32.36%) and fawn (solid or main) (29.9%). Of the 2228 French Bulldogs under veterinary care during 2013, 1612 (72.4%) had at least one disorder recorded. The most prevalent fine-level precision disorders recorded were otitis externa (14.0%, 95% CI: 12.6–15.5), diarrhoea (7.5%, 95% CI: 6.4–8.7), conjunctivitis (3.2%, 95% CI: 2.5–4.0), nails overlong (3.1%, 95% CI% 2.4–3.9) and skin fold dermatitis (3.0%, 95% CI% 2.3–3.8). The most prevalent disorder groups were cutaneous (17.9%, 95% CI: 16.3–19.6), enteropathy (16.7%, 95% CI: 15.2–18.3), aural (16.3%, 95% CI: 14.8–17.9), upper respiratory tract (12.7%, 95% CI: 11.3–14.1) and ophthalmological (10.5%, 95% CI: 9.3–11.9). Conclusions Ownership of French Bulldogs in the UK is rising steeply. This means that the disorder profiles reported in this study reflect a current young UK population and are likely to shift as this cohort ages. Otitis externa, diarrhoea and conjunctivitis were the most common disorders in French Bulldogs. Identification of health priorities based on VetCompass™ data can support evidence–based reforms to improve health and welfare within the breed

Transport and ageing: Extending quality of life for older people via public and private transport

Accessible public transport and the independence that comes with car driving are generally thought to be linked to quality of life in old age. However, there has been almost no research on this topic in the UK. This study by researchers from the University of Paisley and the University of East London used a multi-method approach to explore the relationship between quality of life and access to public and private transport. The study also examined the extent to which the transport needs of older people are taken into account by transport professionals

Microwave oven fabricated hybrid memristor devices for non-volatile memory storage

© 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd. Novel hybrid non-volatile memories made using an ultra-fast microwave heating method are reported for the first time. The devices, consisting of aligned ZnO nanorods embedded in poly (methyl methacrylate), require no forming step and exhibit reliable and reproducible bipolar resistive switching at low voltages and with low power usage. We attribute these properties to a combination of the high aspect ratio of the nanorods and the polymeric hybrid structure of the device. The extremely easy, fast and low-cost solution based method of fabrication makes possible the simple and quick production of cheap memory cells

Mechanisms of cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive-compulsive disorder involve robust and extensive increases in brain network connectivity.

Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective for obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD); however, little is understood about its mechanisms related to brain network connectivity. We examined connectivity changes from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data pre-to-post-CBT in 43 OCD participants, randomized to receive either 4 weeks of intensive CBT or 4 weeks waitlist followed by 4 weeks of CBT, and 24 healthy controls before and after 4 weeks of no treatment. Network-based-statistic analysis revealed large-magnitude increases in OCD connectivity in eight networks. Strongest increases involved connectivity between the cerebellum and caudate/putamen, and between the cerebellum and dorsolateral/ventrolateral prefrontal cortices. Connectivity increases were associated with increased resistance to compulsions. Mechanisms of CBT may involve enhanced cross-network integration, both within and outside of classical cortico-striatal-thalamo-cortical regions; those involving cerebellar to striatal and prefrontal regions may reflect acquisition of new non-compulsive goal-directed behaviors and thought patterns. Our findings have implications for identifying targets for enhancing treatment efficacy and monitoring treatment progress

Active cloaking of finite defects for flexural waves in elastic plates

We present a new method to create an active cloak for a rigid inclusion in a thin plate, and analyse flexural waves within such a plate governed by the Kirchhoff plate equation. We consider scattering of both a plane wave and a cylindrical wave by a single clamped inclusion of circular shape. In order to cloak the inclusion, we place control sources at small distances from the scatterer and choose their intensities to eliminate propagating orders of the scattered wave, thus reconstructing the respective incident wave. We then vary the number and position of the control sources to obtain the most effective configuration for cloaking the circular inclusion. Finally, we successfully cloak an arbitrarily shaped scatterer in a thin plate by deriving a semi-analytical, asymptotic algorithm.Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl

The sexually dimorphic behaviour of adult Drosophila suzukii: elevated female locomotor activity and loss of siesta is a post-mating response

The polyphagous Drosophila suzukii is a highly invasive species that causes extensive damage to a wide range of berry and stone fruit crops. A better understanding of its biology and especially its behaviour will aid the development of new control strategies. We investigated the locomotor behaviour of D. suzukii in a semi-natural environment resembling a typical summer in northern England and show that adult female D. suzukii are at least 4-fold more active during daylight hours than adult males. This result was reproduced in several laboratory environments and was shown to be a robust feature of mated, but not virgin, female flies. Both males and virgin females kept on a 12 h light:12 h dark (12LD) cycle and constant temperature displayed night-time inactivity (sleep) followed by weak activity in the morning, an afternoon period of quiescence (siesta) and then a prominent evening peak of activity. Both the siesta and the sharp evening peak at lights off were severely reduced in females after mating. Flies of either sex entrained in 12LD displayed a circadian pattern of activity in constant darkness confirming the importance of an endogenous clock in regulating adult activity. This response of females to mating is similar to that elicited in female Drosophila melanogaster by the male sex peptide (SP). We used mass spectrometry to identify a molecular ion (m/z, 5145) corresponding to the poly-hydroxylated SP of D. suzukii and to show that this molecule is transferred to the female reproductive tract during copulation. We propose that the siesta experienced by male and virgin female D. suzukii is an adaptation to avoid unnecessary exposure to the afternoon sun, but that mated females faced with the challenge of obtaining resources for egg production and finding oviposition sites take greater risks, and we suggest that the change in female behaviour is induced by the male SP

Confusion, gaps, and overlaps: A consumer perspective on alternative dispute resolution between consumers and businesses

This report is about the help available to consumers who have experienced a problem with a business that they have been unable to resolve on their own. Some of these problems end up in the small claims courts, but increasingly consumers can turn to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) schemes. This report is about the UK’s current approach to ADR