Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

In this study, we investigate the financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks using a Structural VAR framework. We distinguish between net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries. Since the 80s, a significant number of empirical studies have been published investigating the effect of oil prices on macroeconomic and financial variables. Most of these studies though, do not make a distinction between oil-importing and oil-exporting economies. Overall, our results indicate that the level of inflation in both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries is significantly affected by oil price innovations. Furthermore, we find that the response of interest rates to an oil price shock depends heavily on the monetary policy regime of each country. Finally, stock markets operating in net oil-importing countries exhibit a negative response to increased oil prices. The reverse is true for the stock market of the net oil-exporting countries. We find evidence that the magnitude of stock market responses to oil price shocks is higher for the newly established and/or less liquid stock market

Optimal prediction rule: an application to debt reschedulings

This paper develops and tests a new model for assessing country credit risk and is called Multivariate Cumulative Sum. This model is dynamic in nature and allows the user to predict early enough a financial distress that could lead to debt rescheduling. The findings suggest that the model is capable of detecting potential debt - repayment difficulties as early as three years in advance. This has serious financing implications, since the lender can have ample time to re-evaluate his investment opportunities towards that country and thus avoid or limit a disastrous financial exposure.

Feedback trading and the behavioural ICAPM: multivariate evidence across international equity and bond markets

In this article we develop a 'behavioural' Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) in which the behavioural impetus comes from the feedback trading implications for the autocorrelation of returns. We apply the model in a setting of paired equity and bond investments, employing a bivariate diagonal Berndt-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) framework. Our empirics rely on daily equity and bond index returns across six major economies, over the period 1 January 1990 to 30 June 2005. We find evidence supporting the theory that the observed dynamics of serial correlation can be a function of both volatility and conditional covariance (between equity and bonds). Moreover, our behavioural ICAPM shows empirical promise as a useful model of asset pricing in markets that display the feedback trading phenomenon.feedback trading, autocorrelated returns, behavioural ICAPM, GARCH-M, equity and bond markets, international evidence,