Stock Market Performance and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Appraisal

This study is aimed at determining the role and contributions of the Nigerian stock market to national income in Nigeria from 1981 – 2012. This is necessitated by the concern as to whether a lean stock market like we have in Nigeria with an average of 240 quoted companies (within the period of study) with an average market capitalisation of N4 billion can significantly exact the much expected positive impact on total output. Four explanatory variables were specified for this study based on theoretical underpinning. Stationarity test were conducted using Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test, while Johansen Cointegration test was used to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The Granger causality test was conducted in order to establish causal relationship, while the model was estimated using the error correction model (ECM). Key words: Nigerian stock exchange, stock market performance, economic growth, capital formation, and cointegration

Factors Affecting the Adoption of Forage Technologies in Smallholder Dairy Production Systems in Lushoto, Tanzania

Despite population pressure and the urgent need for dairy production to be doubled by 2050, there is still a significant deficit in milk production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Lack of quantity and quality feed is one of the major factors causing unsatisfactory milk yields. This Working Paper assessed the adoption potential of forage technologies in Lushoto, Tanga district, Tanzania. We carried out an extensive literature review of past work on smallholder dairy production in SSA and Tanzania, and the adoption rate of forage technologies; visited and observed farmers’ fields in Lushoto; carried out interviews with farmers; and used a Qualitative participatory expert-based Assessment Tool for Forage Technology adoption (QATo-FT) in a multi-stakeholder workshop. Results showed that the adoption rate of improved forage technologies in Lushoto is still in the early stages following classical diffusion theories. The farmers’ interviews revealed that while the triggering factors for adoption were related to the shortage of feed and soil conservation problems, the potential economic advantages were not as dominant as expected. Farmers reported the reasons for sustaining the practices of growing improved forages as the year-round availability of fodder, increased fodder demand and accumulated benefits. The low actual adoption rates contrasted with results from the QATo-FT assessment that revealed a high overall adoption potential for Lushoto. The following factors all exerted a positive influence on adoption potential: the general receptive nature of the community towards the technology; the expectations of improved forages on ecological benefits; and the role of promoting institutions. Factors exerting a weaker influence included the political and institutional framework at regional level, and products and input markets conditions for forage and overall livestock farming. Most important barriers to adoption were related to the whole farming system and the wider environment. The opportunity cost for labor was low due to lack of off-farm income possibilities, hence making it favorable for farmers to collect fodder from distant places instead of saving labor through growing forages closer to the homestead. Further, several other livestock management factors confounded potential gains in milk production through improved forages: current breeds were often not sufficiently high yielding to respond to improved feeding; providing water to zero grazing animals was not always achievable for labor-constrained farms; many farmers let forages overgrow for use in times of scarcity (dry season) which led to lower-than-necessary forage being fed to animals; sufficient planting material and extension advice on forage management and harvesting was not always available; milk prices were low and would not be increased if the volume of milk production did not increase (the collection center was operating at < 50% capacity). To increase future forage adoption rates, it is recommended to invest in knowledge transfer, more effective local authority and extension structures, stronger multi-stakeholder partnerships, access to loan and credit facilities, improvement of off-farm income possibilities, better access to input markets including AI and forage planting material, and more favorable output markets. By doing this, the performance of existing heads of cattle for the region would be improved, milk yields would increase and eventually farmers’ income levels would be enhanced. This could improve nutrition, and eventually contribute to poverty alleviation in SSA

IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 FOR AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY, AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA

Covid-19 pandemic appeared to have permanently changed the mode of life, whereby covid-19 mitigating measures have become a unifying world order. All spheres of human life are greatly affected and adversely too. In Nigeria unfortunately, the food chain has become the worst hit resulting from the crushing effects of the pandemic on agriculture. There has been a consistent increase in prices of agricultural products since the February 2020 national lockdown in Nigeria. While Nigeria continues to witness a persistent fall in agricultural output, including food, the prices of food and other agricultural produce keep hitting the roof. The abysmal government interventions riddled with corruption and effectively excluding the mass poor farmers further exacerbated their poor living conditions, while more Nigerians are pushed into poverty. The study involved an exploratory analysis of the immediate impacts of covid-19 mitigation measures and interventions on agriculture, food security, and poverty in Nigeria. The major objective of this study is to better understand the implications of the covid-19 pandemic for agriculture, food security, and poverty in Nigeria

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE OF NIGERIA

Public expenditure strives to provide amenities for the general public as well as distribute resources among its citizens. Government spending can be divided into three main categories: consumption, transfers, and interest payments. Capital and recurrent expenditure make up the majority of government spending in Nigeria. These are further divided into administration, social and community services, economic services, and transfers. Recurrent spending, in contrast to capital spending, does not result in the creation of assets for the future or the reduction of any government liabilities. Recurrent expenses include payments for pensions, interest on prior debt, subsidies, and employee salaries. This study attempts to scientifically examine the effects of government capital expenditure in its disaggregated form (administration, social and community service, economic services, transfers, and government deficit) on Nigeria's economic growth rate from 1981 to 2021 in addition to evaluating how well government expenditure performed in the years following the pandemic in 2021. Secondary data sourced from the CBN statistical bulletin, 2021, were used in the analysis. Because the variables have a mixed order of integration, the study used the autoregressive distributed lag model. The bounds test showed a longrun association between the studied variables. The error correction model showed a strong and positive association between administrative and economic services and the rate of economic growth in Nigeria

Determinants for smallholder farmers’ adoption of improved forages in dairy production systems: The case of Tanga region, Tanzania

Dairy productivity in sub-Saharan Africa remains below its potential, while there is an increasing demand for milk from its growing population. This study focuses on the adoption potential of improved, more nutritive and productive forages by smallholder farmers in the Tanga region of Tanzania. By applying a qualitative mixed-method approach, including farm visits, interviews and a multi-stakeholder workshop guided by the Qualitative Assessment Tool for Forage Technologies (QATo-FT), we systematically identify and analyse the roles of the (i) institutional and political, (ii) socio-economic and (iii) cultural factors influencing the adoption and diffusion of improved forage technologies. The findings reveal the unsuitable cool climate and unfavourable socioeconomic conditions, including low labour opportunity costs in the dry season as critical reasons for the low current adoption rate. However, a positive community attitude, the recognised ecological benefits and the supporting role of promoting institutions are the main influencing factors of a high adoption potential. Yet, the political and institutional framework at the regional level, as well as the market conditions, negatively influence the adoption potential. We suggest an integrated approach for rural development that goes beyond the improvement of yields, but provides more efficient use of land and labour in the region. View Full-Tex

Determinants for Smallholder Farmers’ Adoption of Improved Forages in Dairy Production Systems: The Case of Tanga Region, Tanzania

Dairy productivity in sub-Saharan Africa remains below its potential, while there is an increasing demand for milk from its growing population. This study focuses on the adoption potential of improved, more nutritive and productive forages by smallholder farmers in the Tanga region of Tanzania. By applying a qualitative mixed-method approach, including farm visits, interviews and a multi-stakeholder workshop guided by the Qualitative Assessment Tool for Forage Technologies (QATo-FT), we systematically identify and analyse the roles of the (i) institutional and political, (ii) socio-economic and (iii) cultural factors influencing the adoption and diffusion of improved forage technologies. The findings reveal the unsuitable cool climate and unfavourable socioeconomic conditions, including low labour opportunity costs in the dry season as critical reasons for the low current adoption rate. However, a positive community attitude, the recognised ecological benefits and the supporting role of promoting institutions are the main influencing factors of a high adoption potential. Yet, the political and institutional framework at the regional level, as well as the market conditions, negatively influence the adoption potential. We suggest an integrated approach for rural development that goes beyond the improvement of yields, but provides more efficient use of land and labour in the region

Understanding the impact and adoption of conservation agriculture in Africa: a multi-scale analysis

Conservation agriculture (CA) is increasingly promoted in Africa as an alternative for coping with the need to increase food production on the basis of more sustainable farming practices. Success with adopting CA on farms in Africa has been limited, despite more than two decades of research and development investments. Through analyzing past and on-going CA experiences in a set of case studies, this paper seeks to better understand the reasons for the limited adoption of CA and to assess where, when and for whom CA works best. CA is analyzed and understood within a framework that distinguishes the following scales of analysis: field, farm, village and region. CA has a potential to increase crop yields in the fields, especially under conditions of erratic rainfall and over the long-term as a result of a gradual increase of overall soil quality. The impact on farm income with the practice of CA on some fields of the farm is far less evident, and depends on the type of farm. The lack of an immediate increase in farm income with CA explains in many cases the non-adoption of CA. Smallholders have often short-term time horizons: future benefits do not adequately outweigh their immediate needs. Another key factor that explains the limited CA adoption in mixed crop-livestock farming systems is the fact that crop harvest residues are preferably used as fodder for livestock, preventing their use as soil cover. Finally, in most case studies good markets for purchase of inputs and sale of produce – a key prerequisite condition for adoption of new technologies – were lacking. The case studies show clear evidence for the need to target end users (not all farmers are potential end user of CA) and adapt CA systems to the local circumstances of the farmers, considering in particular the farmer's investment capacity in the practice of CA and the compatibility of CA with his/her production objectives and existing farming activities. The identification of situations where, when and for whom CA works will help future development agents to better target their investments with CA