Biologisch rundvlees: vraag en aanbod in evenwicht

In dit rapport van ASG-PV en het LEI wordt ingegaan op de mogelijkheid om het aanbod van biologisch rundvlees door uitstoot van melkkoeien beter bij de vraag te laten aansluiten. Hierbij is gekeken naar de mogelijkheden die de bedrijfsvoering van de rundveehouder hiervoor bieden. Belangrijke variabelen hierbij zijn de raskeuze, aflevermomenten van de dieren in het seizoen en de mogelijkheden om de dieren af te mesten. Bij het laatste punt blijkt een goede inschatting van de afmestpotentie cruciaa

A two‐stage Bayesian network model for corporate bankruptcy prediction

We develop a Bayesian network (LASSO-BN) model for firm bankruptcy prediction. We select fnancial ratios via the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO), establish the BN topology, and estimate model parameters. Our empirical results, based on 32,344 US firms from 1961-2018, show that the LASSO-BN model outperforms most alternative methods except the deep neural network. Crucially, the model provides a clear interpretation of its internal functionality by describing the logic of how conditional default probabilities are obtained from selected variables. Thus our model represents a major step towards interpretable machine learning models with strong performance and is relevant to investors and policymakers

Using Data-mining Techniques for the prediction of the severity of road crashes in Cartagena, Colombia

Objective: Analyze the road crashes in Cartagena (Colombia) and the factors associated with the collision and severity. The aim is to establish a set of rules for defining countermeasures to improve road safety. Methods: Data mining and machine learning techniques were used in 7894 traffic accidents from 2016 to 2017. The severity was determined between low (84%) and high (16%). Five classification algorithms to predict the accident severity were applied with WEKA Software (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis). Including Decision Tree (DT-J48), Rule Induction (PART), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The effectiveness of each algorithm was implemented using cross-validation with 10-fold. Decision rules were defined from the results of the different methods. Results: The methods applied are consistent and similar in the overall results of precision, accuracy, recall, and area under the ROC curve. Conclusions: 12 decision rules were defined based on the methods applied. The rules defined show motorcyclists, cyclists, including pedestrians, as the most vulnerable road users. Men and women motorcyclists between 20–39 years are prone in accidents with high severity. When a motorcycle or cyclist is not involved in the accident, the probable severity is low

Leveraging analytics to produce compelling and profitable film content

Producing compelling film content profitably is a top priority to the long-term prosperity of the film industry. Advances in digital technologies, increasing availabilities of granular big data, rapid diffusion of analytic techniques, and intensified competition from user generated content and original content produced by Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) platforms have created unparalleled needs and opportunities for film producers to leverage analytics in content production. Built upon the theories of value creation and film production, this article proposes a conceptual framework of key analytic techniques that film producers may engage throughout the production process, such as script analytics, talent analytics, and audience analytics. The article further synthesizes the state-of-the-art research on and applications of these analytics, discuss the prospect of leveraging analytics in film production, and suggest fruitful avenues for future research with important managerial implications

The Usability of E-learning Platforms in Higher Education: A Systematic Mapping Study

The use of e-learning in higher education has increased significantly in recent years, which has led to several studies being conducted to investigate the usability of the platforms that support it. A variety of different usability evaluation methods and attributes have been used, and it has therefore become important to start reviewing this work in a systematic way to determine how the field has developed in the last 15 years. This paper describes a systematic mapping study that performed searches on five electronic libraries to identify usability issues and methods that have been used to evaluate e-learning platforms. Sixty-one papers were selected and analysed, with the majority of studies using a simple research design reliant on questionnaires. The usability attributes measured were mostly related to effectiveness, satisfaction, efficiency, and perceived ease of use. Furthermore, several research gaps have been identified and recommendations have been made for further work in the area of the usability of online learning