Nonpoint pollution of surface waters with phosphorus and nitrogen

Agriculture and urban activities are major sources of phosphorus and nitrogen to aquatic ecosystems. Atmospheric deposition further contributes as a source of N. These nonpoint inputs of nutrients are difficult to measure and regulate because they derive from activities dispersed over wide areas of land and are variable in time due to effects of weather. In aquatic ecosystems, these nutrients cause diverse problems such as toxic algal blooms, loss of oxygen, fish kills, loss of biodiversity (including species important for commerce and recreation), loss of aquatic plant beds and coral reefs, and other problems. Nutrient enrichment seriously degrades aquatic ecosystems and impairs the use of water for drinking, industry, agriculture, recreation, and other purposes. Based on our review of the scientific literature, we are certain that (1) eutrophication is a widespread problem in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal oceans, caused by overenrichment with P and N; (2) nonpoint pollution, a major source of P and N to surface waters of the United States, results primarily from agriculture and urban activity, including industry; (3) inputs of P and N to agriculture in the form of fertilizers exceed outputs in produce in the United States and many other nations; (4) nutrient flows to aquatic ecosystems are directly related to animal stocking densities, and under high livestock densities, manure production exceeds the needs of crops to which the manure is applied; (5) excess fertilization and manure production cause a P surplus to accumulate in soil, some of which is transported to aquatic ecosystems; and (6) excess fertilization and manure production on agricultural lands create surplus N, which is mobile in many soils and often leaches to downstream aquatic ecosystems, and which can also volatilize to the atmosphere, redepositing elsewhere and eventually reaching aquatic ecosystems. If current practices continue, nonpoint pollution of surface waters is virtually certain to increase in the future. Such an outcome is not inevitable, however, because a number of technologies, land use practices, and conservation measures are capable of decreasing the flow of nonpoint P and N into surface waters. From our review of the available scientific information, we are confident that: (1) nonpoint pollution of surface waters with P and N could be reduced by reducing surplus nutrient flows in agricultural systems and processes, reducing agricultural and urban runoff by diverse methods, and reducing N emissions from fossil fuel burning; and (2) eutrophication can be reversed by decreasing input rates of P and N to aquatic ecosystems, but rates of recovery are highly variable among water bodies. Often, the eutrophic state is persistent, and recovery is slow

Fisher Waves and Front Roughening in a Two-Species Invasion Model with Preemptive Competition

We study front propagation when an invading species competes with a resident; we assume nearest-neighbor preemptive competition for resources in an individual-based, two-dimensional lattice model. The asymptotic front velocity exhibits power-law dependence on the difference between the two species' clonal propagation rates (key ecological parameters). The mean-field approximation behaves similarly, but the power law's exponent slightly differs from the individual-based model's result. We also study roughening of the front, using the framework of non-equilibrium interface growth. Our analysis indicates that initially flat, linear invading fronts exhibit Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) roughening in one transverse dimension. Further, this finding implies, and is also confirmed by simulations, that the temporal correction to the asymptotic front velocity is of ${\cal O}(t^{-2/3})$.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures; Papers on related work can be found at http://www.rpi.edu/~korniss/Researc

NLOAD : an interactive, web-based modeling tool for nitrogen management in estuaries

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 17, Supple. (2007): S17–S30, doi:10.1890/05-1460.1.Eutrophication of estuaries is an increasing global concern that requires development of new tools to identify causes, quantify conditions, and propose management options that address this environmental problem. Since eutrophication is often associated with increased inputs of land-derived nitrogen to estuaries, we developed NLOAD, a user-friendly, web-based tool that brings together six different published models that predict nitrogen loading to estuaries and two models that estimate nitrogen concentrations in coastal waters. Here we describe each of the models, demonstrate how NLOAD is designed to function, and then use the models in NLOAD to predict nitrogen loads to Barnegat Bay, New Jersey (USA). The four models that we used to estimate nitrogen loads to Barnegat Bay, when adjusted, all had similar results that matched well with measured values and indicated that Barnegat Bay receives roughly 26 kg N·ha−1·yr−1. Atmospheric deposition was the dominant source of nitrogen to Barnegat Bay, followed by fertilizer nitrogen. Wastewater in Barnegat Bay is diverted to an offshore outfall and contributes no nitrogen to the system. The NLOAD tool has an additional feature that allows managers to assess the effectiveness of a variety of management options to reduce nitrogen loads. We demonstrate this feature of NLOAD through simulations in which fertilizer inputs to the Barnegat Bay watershed are reduced. Even modest cutbacks in the use of fertilizers on agricultural fields and lawns can be shown to reduce the amount of N entering Barnegat Bay.Support for the NLOAD tool came from the Cooperative Institute for Coastal and Estuarine Environmental Technologies (CICEET, CICEET-UNH grants #02-610 and #04-833). Additional funding was received from Environmental Defense

Ecological Invasion, Roughened Fronts, and a Competitor's Extreme Advance: Integrating Stochastic Spatial-Growth Models

Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a "roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner's relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced invader as the extreme deviation about the front's mean position. We find that a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions exhibit universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced invader.Comment: The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com/content/8528v8563r7u2742

Control of primary productivity and the significance of photosynthetic bacteria in a meromictic kettle lake.

During 1986 planktonic primary production and controlling factors were investigated in a small (A0 = 11.8 · 103 m2, Zmax = 11.5 m) meromictic kettle lake (Mittlerer Buchensee). Annual phytoplankton productivity was estimated to ca 120 gC · m–2 · a–1 (1,42 tC · lake–1 · a–1). The marked thermal stratification of the lake led to irregular vertical distributions of chlorophylla concentrations (Chla) and, to a minor extent, of photosynthesis (Az). Between the depths of 0 to 6 m low Chla concentrations (< 7 mg · m–3) and comparatively high background light attenuation (kw = 0,525 m–1, 77% of total attenuation due to gelbstoff and abioseston) was found. As a consequence, light absorption by algae was low (mean value 17,4%) and self-shading was absent. Because of the small seasonal variation of Chla concentrations, no significant correlation between Chla and areal photosynthesis (A) was observed. Only in early summer (June–July) biomass appears to influence the vertical distribution of photosynthesis on a bigger scale. Around 8 m depth, low-light adapted algae and phototrophic bacteria formed dense layers. Due to low ambient irradiances, the contribution of these organisms to total primary productivity was small. Primary production and incident irradiance were significantly correlated with each other (r2 = 0.68). Although the maximum assimilation number (Popt) showed a clear dependence upon water temperature (Q10 = 2.31), the latter was of minor importance to areal photosynthesis

Multi-agent systems in epidemiology: a first step for computational biology in the study of vector-borne disease transmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computational biology is often associated with genetic or genomic studies only. However, thanks to the increase of computational resources, computational models are appreciated as useful tools in many other scientific fields. Such modeling systems are particularly relevant for the study of complex systems, like the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases. So far, mathematical models remain the main tool for the epidemiological and ecological analysis of infectious diseases, with SIR models could be seen as an implicit standard in epidemiology. Unfortunately, these models are based on differential equations and, therefore, can become very rapidly unmanageable due to the too many parameters which need to be taken into consideration. For instance, in the case of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in wildlife many different potential host species could be involved in the life-cycle of disease transmission, and SIR models might not be the most suitable tool to truly capture the overall disease circulation within that environment. This limitation underlines the necessity to develop a standard spatial model that can cope with the transmission of disease in realistic ecosystems.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Computational biology may prove to be flexible enough to take into account the natural complexity observed in both natural and man-made ecosystems. In this paper, we propose a new computational model to study the transmission of infectious diseases in a spatially explicit context. We developed a multi-agent system model for vector-borne disease transmission in a realistic spatial environment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Here we describe in detail the general behavior of this model that we hope will become a standard reference for the study of vector-borne disease transmission in wildlife. To conclude, we show how this simple model could be easily adapted and modified to be used as a common framework for further research developments in this field.</p

Periodic Host Absence Can Select for Higher or Lower Parasite Transmission Rates

This paper explores the effect of discontinuous periodic host absence on the evolution of pathogen transmission rates by using Ro maximisation techniques. The physiological consequence of an increased transmission rate can be either an increased virulence, i.e. there is a transmission-virulence trade-off or ii) a reduced between season survival, i.e. there is a transmission-survival trade-off. The results reveal that the type of trade-off determines the direction of selection, with relatively longer periods of host absence selecting for higher transmission rates in the presence of a trade-off between transmission and virulence but lower transmission rates in the presence of a trade-of between transmission and between season survival. The fact that for the transmission-virulence trade-off both trade-off parameters operate during host presence whereas for the transmission-survival trade-off one operates during host presence (transmission) and the other (survival) during the period of host absence is the main cause for this difference in selection direction. Moreover, the period of host absence seems to be the key determinant of the pathogens transmission rate. Comparing plant patho-systems with contrasting biological features suggests that airborne plant pathogen respond differently to longer periods of host absence than soil-borne plant pathogens

Real Life Clinical Management and Survival in Advanced Cutaneous Melanoma: The Italian Clinical National Melanoma Registry Experience

Background: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is one of the most aggressive types of skin cancer. Currently, innovative approaches such as target therapies and immunotherapies have been introduced in clinical practice. Data of clinical trials and real life studies that evaluate the outcomes of these therapeutic associations are necessary to establish their clinical utility. The aim of this study is to investigate the types of oncological treatments employed in the real-life clinical management of patients with advanced CM in several Italian centers, which are part of the Clinical National Melanoma Registry (CNMR). Methods: Melanoma-specific survival and overall survival were calculated. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios adjusting for confounders and other prognostic factors. Results: The median follow-up time was 36 months (range 1.2-185.1). 787 CM were included in the analysis with completed information about therapies. All types of immunotherapy showed a significant improved survival compared with all other therapies (p=0.001). 75% was the highest reduction of death reached by anti-PD-1 (HR=0.25), globally immunotherapy was significantly associated with improved survival, either for anti-CTLA4 monotherapy or combined with anti-PD-1 (HR=0.47 and 0.26, respectively) and BRAFI+MEKI (HR=0.62). Conclusions: The nivolumab/pembrolizumab in combination of ipilimumab and the addition of ant-MEK to the BRAFi can be considered the best therapies to improve survival in a real-world-population. The CNMR can complement clinical registries with the intent of improving cancer management and standardizing cancer treatment

Demonstration of Metabolic and Cellular Effects of Portal Vein Ligation Using Multi-Modal PET/MRI Measurements in Healthy Rat Liver.

OBJECTIVES: In the early recognition of portal vein ligation (PVL) induced tumor progression, positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MRI) could improve diagnostic accuracy of conventionally used methods. It is unknown how PVL affects metabolic patterns of tumor free hepatic tissues. The aim of this preliminary study is to evaluate the effect of PVL on glucose metabolism, using PET/MRI imaging in healthy rat liver. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Male Wistar rats (n = 30) underwent PVL. 2-deoxy-2-(18F)fluoro-D-glucose (FDG) PET/MRI imaging (nanoScan PET/MRI) and morphological/histological examination were performed before (Day 0) and 1, 2, 3, and 7 days after PVL. Dynamic PET data were collected and the standardized uptake values (SUV) for ligated and non-ligated liver lobes were calculated in relation to cardiac left ventricle (SUVVOI/SUVCLV) and mean liver SUV (SUVVOI/SUVLiver). RESULTS: PVL induced atrophy of ligated lobes, while non-ligated liver tissue showed compensatory hypertrophy. Dynamic PET scan revealed altered FDG kinetics in both ligated and non-ligated liver lobes. SUVVOI/SUVCLV significantly increased in both groups of lobes, with a maximal value at the 2nd postoperative day and returned near to the baseline 7 days after the ligation. After PVL, ligated liver lobes showed significantly higher tracer uptake compared to the non-ligated lobes (significantly higher SUVVOI/SUVLiver values were observed at postoperative day 1, 2 and 3). The homogenous tracer biodistribution observed before PVL reappeared by 7th postoperative day. CONCLUSION: The observed alterations in FDG uptake dynamics should be taken into account during the assessment of PET data until the PVL induced atrophic and regenerative processes are completed