Prediction intervals for future BMI values of individual children - a non-parametric approach by quantile boosting

Background: The construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for future body mass index (BMI) values of individual children based on a recent German birth cohort study with n = 2007 children is problematic for standard parametric approaches, as the BMI distribution in childhood is typically skewed depending on age. Methods: We avoid distributional assumptions by directly modelling the borders of PIs by additive quantile regression, estimated by boosting. We point out the concept of conditional coverage to prove the accuracy of PIs. As conditional coverage can hardly be evaluated in practical applications, we conduct a simulation study before fitting child- and covariate-specific PIs for future BMI values and BMI patterns for the present data. Results: The results of our simulation study suggest that PIs fitted by quantile boosting cover future observations with the predefined coverage probability and outperform the benchmark approach. For the prediction of future BMI values, quantile boosting automatically selects informative covariates and adapts to the age-specific skewness of the BMI distribution. The lengths of the estimated PIs are child-specific and increase, as expected, with the age of the child. Conclusions: Quantile boosting is a promising approach to construct PIs with correct conditional coverage in a non-parametric way. It is in particular suitable for the prediction of BMI patterns depending on covariates, since it provides an interpretable predictor structure, inherent variable selection properties and can even account for longitudinal data structures

On waiting for something to happen

This paper seeks to examine two particular and peculiar practices in which the mediation of apparently direct encounters is made explicit and is systematically theorized: that of the psychoanalytic dialogue with its inward focus and private secluded setting, and that of theatre and live performance, with its public focus. Both these practices are concerned with ways in which “live encounters” impact on their participants, and hence with the conditions under which, and the processes whereby, the coming-together of human subjects results in recognizable personal or social change. Through the rudimentary analysis of two anecdotes, we aim to think these encounters together in a way that explores what each borrows from the other, the psychoanalytic in the theatrical, the theatrical in the psychoanalytic, figuring each practice as differently committed to what we call the “publication of liveness”. We argue that these “redundant” forms of human contact continue to provide respite from group acceptance of narcissistic failure in the post-democratic era through their offer of a practice of waiting

Conceivable security risks and authentication techniques for smart devices

With the rapidly escalating use of smart devices and fraudulent transaction of users’ data from their devices, efficient and reliable techniques for authentication of the smart devices have become an obligatory issue. This paper reviews the security risks for mobile devices and studies several authentication techniques available for smart devices. The results from field studies enable a comparative evaluation of user-preferred authentication mechanisms and their opinions about reliability, biometric authentication and visual authentication techniques

Negative emotional stimuli reduce contextual cueing but not response times in inefficient search

In visual search, previous work has shown that negative stimuli narrow the focus of attention and speed reaction times (RTs). This paper investigates these two effects by first asking whether negative emotional stimuli narrow the focus of attention to reduce the learning of a display context in a contextual cueing task and, second, whether exposure to negative stimuli also reduces RTs in inefficient search tasks. In Experiment 1, participants viewed either negative or neutral images (faces or scenes) prior to a contextual cueing task. In a typical contextual cueing experiment, RTs are reduced if displays are repeated across the experiment compared with novel displays that are not repeated. The results showed that a smaller contextual cueing effect was obtained after participants viewed negative stimuli than when they viewed neutral stimuli. However, in contrast to previous work, overall search RTs were not faster after viewing negative stimuli (Experiments 2 to 4). The findings are discussed in terms of the impact of emotional content on visual processing and the ability to use scene context to help facilitate search

Maintenance Therapies for Hodgkin and Non-Hodgkin Lymphomas after Autologous Transplantation: A Consensus Project of ASBMT, CIBMTR, and the Lymphoma Working Party of EBMT

Importance: Maintenance therapies are often considered as a therapeutic strategy in patients with lymphoma following autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT) to mitigate the risk of disease relapse. With an evolving therapeutic landscape, where novel drugs are moving earlier in therapy lines, evidence relevant to contemporary practice is increasingly limited. The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (ASBMT), Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR), and European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) jointly convened an expert panel with diverse expertise and geographical representation to formulate consensus recommendations regarding the use of maintenance and/or consolidation therapies after auto-HCT in patients with lymphoma. Observations: The RAND-modified Delphi method was used to generate consensus statements where at least 75% vote in favor of a recommendation was considered as consensus. The process included 3 online surveys moderated by an independent methodological expert to ensure anonymity and an in-person meeting. The panel recommended restricting the histologic categories covered in this project to Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and follicular lymphoma. On completion of the voting process, the panel generated 22 consensus statements regarding post auto-HCT maintenance and/or consolidation therapies. The grade A recommendations included endorsement of: (1) brentuximab vedotin (BV) maintenance and/or consolidation in BV-na\uefve high-risk HL, (2) rituximab maintenance in MCL undergoing auto-HCT after first-line therapy, (3) rituximab maintenance in rituximab-na\uefve FL, and (4) No post auto-HCT maintenance was recommended in DLBCL. The panel also developed consensus statements for important real-world clinical scenarios, where randomized data are lacking to guide clinical practice. Conclusions and Relevance: In the absence of contemporary evidence-based data, the panel found RAND-modified Delphi methodology effective in providing a rigorous framework for developing consensus recommendations for post auto-HCT maintenance and/or consolidation therapies in lymphoma.