Habitat shifts in response to predation risk are constrained by competition within a grazing guild

Predators can affect prey not only by killing them, but also by causing them to alter their behavior, including patterns of habitat selection. Prey can reduce the risk of predation by moving to habitats where predators are less likely to detect them, less likely to attack, or less likely to succeed. The interaction of such responses to risk with other ecological processes remains relatively unstudied, but in some cases, changes in habitat use to avoid predation may be constrained by competition: larger, dominant competitors should respond freely to predation risk, but the responses of smaller, subordinate competitors may be constrained by the responses of dominant competitors. For large grazing herbivores, an alternative hypothesis proposes that smaller prey species are vulnerable to more predators, and thus should respond more strongly to predation risk. Here, we tested these two hypotheses with 775 observations of habitat selection by four species of obligate grazers (zebra, wildebeest, puku and oribi) in the immediate presence or absence of four large carnivores (lion, spotted hyena, African wild dog and cheetah) in three ecosystems (Greater Liuwa, Greater Kafue and Luangwa Valley). Patterns of predation within this set were described by observation of 1,105 kills. Our results support the hypothesis that responses to predation risk are strongest for larger, dominant competitors. Even though zebras were killed least often, they showed the strongest shift into cover when carnivores were present. Wildebeest, puku and oribi showed weaker habitat shifts, even though they were more frequently killed. These patterns remained consistent in models that controlled for differences in the hunting mode of the predator (stalking, coursing, or intermediate) and for differences among ecosystems. There was no evidence that smaller species were subject to predation by a broader set of predators. Instead, smaller prey were killed often by smaller predators, and larger prey were killed often by larger predators. Broadly, our results show that responses to predation risk interact with interspecific competition. Accounting for such interactions should help to explain the considerable variation in the strength of responses to predation risk that has been observed

Specific Patterns of Immune Cell Dynamics May Explain the Early Onset and Prolonged Efficacy of Cladribine Tablets: A MAGNIFY-MS Substudy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Cladribine tablets cause a reduction in lymphocytes with a predominant effect on B-cell and T-cell counts. The MAGNIFY-MS substudy reports the dynamic changes on multiple peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) subtypes and immunoglobulin (Ig) levels over 12 months after the first course of cladribine tablets in patients with highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS Immunophenotyping was performed at baseline (predose) and at the end of months 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 after initiating treatment with cladribine tablets. Assessments included lymphocyte subtype counts of CD19+ B cells, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, CD16+ natural killer cells, plasmablasts, and Igs. Immune cell subtypes were analyzed by flow cytometry, and serum IgG and IgM were analyzed by nephelometric assay. Absolute cell counts and percentage change from baseline were assessed. RESULTS The full analysis set included 57 patients. Rapid reductions in median CD19+, CD20+, memory, activated, and naive B-cell counts were detected, reaching nadir by month 2. Thereafter, total CD19+, CD20+, and naive B-cell counts subsequently reconstituted, but memory B cells remained reduced by 93%-87% for the remainder of the study. The decrease in plasmablasts was slower, reaching nadir at month 3. Decrease in T-cell subtypes was also slower and more moderate compared with B-cell subtypes, reaching nadir between months 3 and 6. IgG and IgM levels remained within the normal range over the 12-month study period. DISCUSSION Cladribine tablets induce a specific pattern of early and sustained PBMC subtype dynamics in the absence of relevant Ig changes: While total B cells were reduced dramatically, T cells were affected significantly less. Naive B cells recovered toward baseline, naive CD4 and CD8 T cells did not, and memory B cells remained reduced. The results help to explain the unique immune depletion and repopulation architecture regarding onset of action and durability of effects of cladribine tablets while largely maintaining immune competence. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03364036. Date registered: December 06, 2017

The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS): Cohort characteristics at enrollment [version 2; referees: 2 approved]

Background:Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate burden of preterm birth and other adverse outcomes. A better understanding of the demographic, clinical, and biologic underpinnings of these adverse outcomes is urgently needed to plan interventions and inform new discovery.  Methods:The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS) is a prospective observational cohort established at the Women and Newborn Hospital (WNH) in Lusaka, Zambia. We recruit pregnant women from district health centers and the WNH and offer ultrasound examination to determine eligibility. Participants receive routine obstetrical care, lab testing, midtrimester cervical length measurement, and serial fetal growth monitoring. At delivery, we assess gestational age, birthweight, vital status, and sex and assign a delivery phenotype. We collect blood, urine, and vaginal swab specimens at scheduled visits and store them in an on-site biorepository. In September 2017, enrollment of the ZAPPS Phase 1 – the subject of this report – was completed. Phase 2 – which is limited to HIV-uninfected women – reopened in January 2018.  Results:Between August 2015 and September 2017, we screened 1784 women, of whom 1450 (81.2%) met inclusion criteria and were enrolled. The median age at enrollment was 27 years (IQR 23–32) and thee median gestational age was 16 weeks (IQR 13–18). Among parous women (N=866; 64%), 21% (N=182) reported a prior miscarriage, 49% (N=424) reported a prior preterm birth, and 13% (N=116) reported a prior stillbirth. The HIV seroprevalence was 24%. Discussion:We have established a large cohort of pregnant women and newborns at the WHN to characterize the determinants of adverse birth outcomes in Lusaka, Zambia. Our overarching goal is to elucidate biological mechanisms in an effort to identify new strategies for early detection and prevention of adverse outcomes. We hope that findings from this cohort will help guide future studies, clinical care, and policy

Development and external validation of machine learning algorithms for postnatal gestational age estimation using clinical data and metabolomic markers

Background Accurate estimates of gestational age (GA) at birth are important for preterm birth surveillance but can be challenging to obtain in low income countries. Our objective was to develop machine learning models to accurately estimate GA shortly after birth using clinical and metabolomic data. Methods We derived three GA estimation models using ELASTIC NET multivariable linear regression using metabolomic markers from heel-prick blood samples and clinical data from a retrospective cohort of newborns from Ontario, Canada. We conducted internal model validation in an independent cohort of Ontario newborns, and external validation in heel prick and cord blood sample data collected from newborns from prospective birth cohorts in Lusaka, Zambia and Matlab, Bangladesh. Model performance was measured by comparing model-derived estimates of GA to reference estimates from early pregnancy ultrasound. Results Samples were collected from 311 newborns from Zambia and 1176 from Bangladesh. The best-performing model accurately estimated GA within about 6 days of ultrasound estimates in both cohorts when applied to heel prick data (MAE 0.79 weeks (95% CI 0.69, 0.90) for Zambia; 0.81 weeks (0.75, 0.86) for Bangladesh), and within about 7 days when applied to cord blood data (1.02 weeks (0.90, 1.15) for Zambia; 0.95 weeks (0.90, 0.99) for Bangladesh). Conclusions Algorithms developed in Canada provided accurate estimates of GA when applied to external cohorts from Zambia and Bangladesh. Model performance was superior in heel prick data as compared to cord blood data

Animal influence on water, sanitation and hygiene measures for zoonosis control at the household level: A systematic literature review

Neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) have a significant impact on the livelihoods of the world’s poorest populations, which often lack access to basic services. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) programmes are included among the key strategies for achieving the World Health Organization’s 2020 Roadmap for Implementation for control of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). There exists a lack of knowledge regarding the effect of animals on the effectiveness of WASH measures. This review looked to identify how animal presence in the household influences the effectiveness of water, hygiene and sanitation measures for zoonotic disease control in low and middle income countries; to identify gaps of knowledge regarding this topic based on the amount and type of studies looking at this particular interaction

Comparison of thermal stratification, light attenuation and Chlorophyll-a dynamics between the ends of Lake Tanganyika

Thermal structure, light attenuation, and chlorophyll- a dynamics within the upper 100 m at the northern and southern ends of Lake Tanganyika were measured from August 1995-July 1996. Pronounced variability of thermal structure in time, depth and region were observed. During the dry windy season (June-September), the water column in the south was largely isothermal down to 100 m, while in the north stratification was detectable. Subsequently, in October, cessation of winds coincided with a reestablishment and strengthening of thermal stratification in the south, and a distinct rise of a weakened thermocline in the north was accompanied by an increase in epilimnetic concentrations of dissolved solids. The depth of photic zone was highly variable with the average position of 1% of incident photosynthetically active radiance found between 20 and 70 m, sometimes showing vertical shifts of 25 m a week. Weekly observations showed that concentrations of chlorophyll- a were rather similar at both ends of the lake. At both stations, periods of unstable or absent thermal stratification were accompanied by increased concentrations of chlorophyll- a , although in the north chlorophyll- a also peaked during periods of deep thermal stratification and low rates of mixing. Concentrations of chlorophyll- a did not show significant relationship with the available amount of underwater available photosynthetically active radiance (I m from 11-173 w Em -2 s -1 ). We suggest that in Lake Tanganyika chlorophyll- a maxima can occur whenever growth rates exceed spatial mixing rates, that is, if mixing is less than a critical turbulence. Our observations underscore the consequences of hydrodynamic processes on biological productivity either by securing internal nutrients or by controlling the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton biomass production

Quantifying lion (Panthera leo) demographic response following a three-year moratorium on trophy hunting

Factors that limit African lion populations are manifold and well-recognized, but their relative demographic effects remain poorly understood, particularly trophy hunting near protected areas. We identified and monitored 386 individual lions within and around South Luangwa National Park, Zambia, for five years (2008-2012) with trophy hunting and for three additional years (2013-2015) during a hunting moratorium. We used these data with mark-resight models to estimate the effects of hunting on lion survival, recruitment, and abundance. The best survival models, accounting for imperfect detection, revealed strong positive effects of the moratorium, with survival increasing by 17.1 and 14.0 percentage points in subadult and adult males, respectively. Smaller effects on adult female survival and positive effects on cub survival were also detected. The sex-ratio of cubs shifted from unbiased during trophy-hunting to female-biased during the moratorium. Closed mark-recapture models revealed a large increase in lion abundance during the hunting moratorium, from 116 lions in 2012 immediately preceding the moratorium to 209 lions in the last year of the moratorium. More cubs were produced each year of the moratorium than in any year with trophy hunting. Lion demographics shifted from a male-depleted population consisting mostly of adult (≥4 years) females to a younger population with more (>29%) adult males. These data show that the three-year moratorium was effective at growing the Luangwa lion population and increasing the number of adult males. The results suggest that moratoria may be an effective tool for improving the sustainability of lion trophy hunting, particularly where systematic monitoring, conservative quotas, and age-based harvesting are difficult to enforce

Do protection gradients explain patterns in herbivore densities? An example with ungulates in Zambia's Luangwa Valley

Ungulate populations face declines across the globe, and populations are commonly conserved by using protected areas. However, assessing the effectiveness of protected areas in conserving ungulate populations has remained difficult. Using herd size data from four years of line transect surveys and distance sampling models, we modeled population densities of four important herbivore species across a gradient of protection on the edge of Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) while accounting for the role of various ecological and anthropogenic variables. Our goal was to test whether protection was responsible for density dynamics in this protection gradient, and whether a hunting moratorium impacted herbivore densities during the studies. For all four species, we estimated lower densities in partially protected buffer areas adjacent to SLNP (ranging from 4.5-fold to 13.2-fold lower) compared to protected parklands. Density trends through the study period were species-specific, with some species increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable in all or some regions of the protection gradient. Surprisingly, when controlling for other covariates, we found that these observed differences were not always detectably related to the level of protection or year. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for variables beyond strata of interest in evaluating the effectiveness of a protected area. This study highlights the importance of comprehensively modeling ungulate population density across protection gradients, identifies lands within an important protection gradient for targeted conservation and monitoring, documents prey depletion and expands our understanding on the drivers in a critical buffer area in Zambia