Model-based small area estimation methods and precise district-level HIV prevalence estimates in Uganda

Background Model-based small area estimation methods can help generate parameter estimates at the district level, where planned population survey sample sizes are not large enough to support direct estimates of HIV prevalence with adequate precision. We computed district-level HIV prevalence estimates and their 95% confidence intervals for districts in Uganda. Methods Our analysis used direct survey and model-based estimation methods, including Fay-Herriot (area-level) and Battese-Harter-Fuller (unit-level) small area models. We used regression analysis to assess for consistency in estimating HIV prevalence. We use a ratio analysis of the mean square error and the coefficient of variation of the estimates to evaluate precision. The models were applied to Uganda Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment 2016/2017 data with auxiliary information from the 2016 Lot Quality Assurance Sampling survey and antenatal care data from district health information system datasets for unit-level and area level models, respectively. Results Estimates from the model-based and the direct survey methods were similar. However, direct survey estimates were unstable compared with the model-based estimates. Area level model estimates were more stable than unit-level model estimates. The correlation between unit-level and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.66, r2 = 0.862), and correlation between area-level model and direct survey estimates was (β1 = 0.44, r2 = 0.698). The error associated with the estimates decreased by 37.5% and 33.1% for the unit-level and arealevel models, respectively, compared to the direct survey estimates. Conclusions Although the unit-level model estimates were less precise than the area-level model estimates, they were highly correlated with the direct survey estimates and had less standard error associated with estimates than the area-level model. Unit-level models provide more accurate and reliable data to support local decision-making when unit-level auxiliary information is available

Mobile Health–Supported HIV Self-Testing Strategy Among Urban Refugee and Displaced Youth in Kampala, Uganda: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Trial (Tushirikiane, Supporting Each Other)

© Carmen Logie, Moses Okumu, Robert Hakiza, Daniel Kibuuka Musoke, Isha Berry, Simon Mwima, Peter Kyambadde, Uwase Mimy Kiera, Miranda Loutet, Stella Neema, Katie Newby, Clara McNamee, Stefan D Baral, Richard Lester, Joshua Musinguzi, Lawrence Mbuagbaw. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)Background: HIV is the leading cause of mortality among youth in sub-Saharan Africa. Uganda hosts over 1.43 million refugees, and more than 83,000 live in Kampala, largely in informal settlements. There is limited information about HIV testing uptake and preferences among urban refugee and displaced youth. HIV self-testing is a promising method for increasing testing uptake. Further, mobile health (mHealth) interventions have been effective in increasing HIV testing uptake and could be particularly useful among youth. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of two HIV self-testing implementation strategies (HIV self-testing intervention alone and HIV self-testing combined with an mHealth intervention) in comparison with the HIV testing standard of care in terms of HIV testing outcomes among refugee/displaced youth aged 16 to 24 years in Kampala, Uganda. Methods: A three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial will be implemented across five informal settlements grouped into three sites, based on proximity, and randomization will be performed with a 1:1:1 method. Approximately 450 adolescents (150 per cluster) will be enrolled and followed for 12 months. Data will be collected at the following three time points: baseline enrollment, 8 months after enrollment, and 12 months after enrollment. Primary outcomes (HIV testing frequency, HIV status knowledge, linkage to confirmatory testing, and linkage to HIV care) and secondary outcomes (depression, condom use efficacy, consistent condom use, sexual relationship power, HIV stigma, and adolescent sexual and reproductive health stigma) will be evaluated. Results: The study has been conducted in accordance with CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) guidelines. The study has received ethical approval from the University of Toronto (June 14, 2019), Mildmay Uganda (November 11, 2019), and the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (August 3, 2020). The Tushirikiane trial launched in February 2020, recruiting a total of 452 participants. Data collection was paused for 8 months due to COVID-19. Data collection for wave 2 resumed in November 2020, and as of December 10, 2020, a total of 295 participants have been followed-up. The third, and final, wave of data collection will be conducted between February and March 2021. Conclusions: This study will contribute to the knowledge of differentiated HIV testing implementation strategies for urban refugee and displaced youth living in informal settlements. We will share the findings in peer-reviewed manuscripts and conference presentations.Peer reviewe

Evaluation of HIV-1 rapid tests and identification of alternative testing algorithms for use in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization recommends that countries conduct two phase evaluations of HIV rapid tests (RTs) in order to come up with the best algorithms. In this report, we present the first ever such evaluation in Uganda, involving both blood and oral based RTs. The role of weak positive (WP) bands on the accuracy of the individual RT and on the algorithms was also investigated. METHODS: In total 11 blood based and 3 oral transudate kits were evaluated. All together 2746 participants from seven sites, covering the four different regions of Uganda participated. Two enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) run in parallel were used as the gold standard. The performance and cost of the different algorithms was calculated, with a pre-determined price cut-off of either cheaper or within 20% price of the current algorithm of Determine + Statpak + Unigold. In the second phase, the three best algorithms selected in phase I were used at the point of care for purposes of quality control using finger stick whole blood. RESULTS: We identified three algorithms; Determine + SD Bioline + Statpak; Determine + Statpak + SD Bioline, both with the same sensitivity and specificity of 99.2% and 99.1% respectively and Determine + Statpak + Insti, with sensitivity and specificity of 99.1% and 99% respectively as having performed better and met the cost requirements. There were 15 other algorithms that performed better than the current one but rated more than the 20% price. None of the 3 oral mucosal transudate kits were suitable for inclusion in an algorithm because of their low sensitivities. Band intensity affected the performance of individual RTs but not the final algorithms. CONCLUSION: We have come up with three algorithms we recommend for public or Government procurement based on accuracy and cost. In case one algorithm is preferred, we recommend to replace Unigold, the current tie breaker with SD Bioline. We further recommend that all the 18 algorithms that have shown better performance than the current one are made available to the private sector where cost may not be a limiting factor

Ethical issues in intervention studies on the prevention and management of diabetes and hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa

Conducting intervention studies in Africa, where medicines supply for chronic conditions is inequitable and patchy, raises major ethical issues. Here we discuss what should the ethical approach be for a research programme in terms of provision of a steady and sustainable supply of medicines for patients with diabetes and hypertension

Patient and health provider costs of integrated HIV, diabetes and hypertension ambulatory health services in low-income settings — an empirical socio-economic cohort study in Tanzania and Uganda

Background: Integration of health services might be an efficient strategy for managing multiple chronic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa, considering the scope of treatments and synergies in service delivery. Proven to promote compliance, integration may lead to increased economies-of-scale. However, evidence on the socio-economic consequences of integration for providers and patients is lacking. We assessed the clinical resource use, staff time, relative service efficiency and overall societal costs associated with integrating HIV, diabetes and hypertension services in single one-stop clinics where persons with one or more of these conditions were managed. Methods: 2273 participants living with HIV infection, diabetes, or hypertension or combinations of these conditions were enrolled in 10 primary health facilities in Tanzania and Uganda and followed-up for up to 12 months. We collected data on resources used from all participants and on out-of-pocket costs in a sub-sample of 1531 participants, while a facility-level costing study was conducted at each facility. Health worker time per participant was assessed in a time-motion morbidity-stratified study among 228 participants. The mean health service cost per month and out-of-pocket costs per participant visit were calculated in 2020 US$prices. Nested bootstrapping from these samples accounted for uncertainties. A data envelopment approach was used to benchmark the efficiency of the integrated services. Last, we estimated the budgetary consequences of integration, based on prevalence-based projections until 2025, for both country populations. Results: Their average retention after 1 year service follow-up was 1911/2273 (84.1$39.11 (95% CI 33.99, 44.33), $32.18 (95$22.65 (95% CI 21.86, 23.43) for the combinations of HIV and diabetes and of HIV and hypertension, diabetes and hypertension, respectively. These costs were 34.4% (95% CI 17.9%, 41.9%) lower as compared to managing any two conditions separately in two different participants. The cost of managing an individual with all three conditions was 48.8% (95% CI 42.1%, 55.3%) lower as compared to managing these conditions separately. Out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure per participant per visit was $7.33 (95% CI 3.70, 15.86). This constituted 23.4% (95% CI 9.9, 54.3) of the total monthly service expenditure per patient and 11.7% (95% CI 7.3, 22.1) of their individual total household income. The integrated clinics’ mean efficiency benchmark score was 0.86 (range 0.30–1.00) suggesting undercapacity that could serve more participants without compromising quality of care. The estimated budgetary consequences of managing multi-morbidity in these types of integrated clinics is likely to increase by 21.5% (range 19.2–23.4%) in the next 5 years, including substantial savings of 21.6% on the provision of integrated care for vulnerable patients with multi-morbidities. Conclusion: Integration of HIV services with diabetes and hypertension control reduces both health service and household costs, substantially. It is likely an efficient and equitable way to address the increasing burden of financially vulnerable households among Africa’s ageing populations. Additional economic evidence is needed from longer-term larger-scale implementation studies to compare extended integrated care packages directly simultaneously with evidence on sustained clinical outcomes

HIV drug resistance among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: WHO revised their HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) monitoring strategy in 2014, enabling countries to generate nationally representative HIVDR prevalence estimates from surveys conducted using this methodology. In 2016, we adopted this strategy in Uganda and conducted an HIVDR survey among adults initiating or reinitiating ART. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of adults aged ≥18 years initiating or reinitiating ART was conducted at 23 sites using a two-stage cluster design sampling method. Participants provided written informed consent prior to enrolment. Whole blood collected in EDTA vacutainer tubes was used for preparation of dried blood spot (DBS) specimens or plasma. Samples were shipped from the sites to the Central Public Health Laboratory (CPHL) for temporary storage before transfer to the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) for genotyping. Prevalence of HIVDR among adults initiating or reinitiating ART was determined. RESULTS: Specimens from 491 participants (median age 32 years and 61.5% female) were collected between August and December 2016. Specimens from 351 participants were successfully genotyped. Forty-nine had drug resistance mutations, yielding an overall weighted HIVDR prevalence of 18.2% with the highest noted for NNRTIs at 14.1%. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high HIVDR prevalence for NNRTIs among adults prior to initiating or reinitiating ART in Uganda. This is above WHO's recommended threshold of 10% when countries should consider changing from NNRTI- to dolutegravir-based first-line regimens. This recommendation was adopted in the revised Ugandan ART guidelines. Dolutegravir-containing ART regimens are preferred for first- and second-line ART regimens

Integrated management of HIV, diabetes, and hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa (INTE-AFRICA): a pragmatic cluster-randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, health-care provision for chronic conditions is fragmented. The aim of this study was to determine whether integrated management of HIV, diabetes, and hypertension led to improved rates of retention in care for people with diabetes or hypertension without adversely affecting rates of HIV viral suppression among people with HIV when compared to standard vertical care in medium and large health facilities in Uganda and Tanzania. METHODS: In INTE-AFRICA, a pragmatic cluster-randomised, controlled trial, we randomly allocated primary health-care facilities in Uganda and Tanzania to provide either integrated care or standard care for HIV, diabetes, and hypertension. Random allocation (1:1) was stratified by location, infrastructure level, and by country, with a permuted block randomisation method. In the integrated care group, participants with HIV, diabetes, or hypertension were managed by the same health-care workers, used the same pharmacy, had similarly designed medical records, shared the same registration and waiting areas, and had an integrated laboratory service. In the standard care group, these services were delivered vertically for each condition. Patients were eligible to join the trial if they were living with confirmed HIV, diabetes, or hypertension, were aged 18 years or older, were living within the catchment population area of the health facility, and were likely to remain in the catchment population for 6 months. The coprimary outcomes, retention in care (attending a clinic within the last 6 months of study follow-up) for participants with either diabetes or hypertension (tested for superiority) and plasma viral load suppression for those with HIV (>1000 copies per mL; tested for non-inferiority, 10% margin), were analysed using generalised estimating equations in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ISCRTN 43896688. FINDINGS: Between June 30, 2020, and April 1, 2021 we randomly allocated 32 health facilities (17 in Uganda and 15 in Tanzania) with 7028 eligible participants to the integrated care or the standard care groups. Among participants with diabetes, hypertension, or both, 2298 (75·8%) of 3032 were female and 734 (24·2%) of 3032 were male. Of participants with HIV alone, 2365 (70·3%) of 3365 were female and 1000 (29·7%) of 3365 were male. Follow-up lasted for 12 months. Among participants with diabetes, hypertension, or both, the proportion alive and retained in care at study end was 1254 (89·0%) of 1409 in integrated care and 1457 (89·8%) of 1623 in standard care. The risk differences were -0·65% (95% CI -5·76 to 4·46; p=0·80) unadjusted and -0·60% (-5·46 to 4·26; p=0·81) adjusted. Among participants with HIV, the proportion who had a plasma viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL was 1412 (97·0%) of 1456 in integrated care and 1451 (97·3%) of 1491 in standard care. The differences were -0·37% (one-sided 95% CI -1·99 to 1·26; pnon-inferiority<0·0001 unadjusted) and -0·36% (-1·99 to 1·28; pnon-inferiority<0·0001 adjusted). INTERPRETATION: In sub-Saharan Africa, integrated chronic care services could achieve a high standard of care for people with diabetes or hypertension without adversely affecting outcomes for people with HIV. FUNDING: European Union Horizon 2020 and Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases

HIV-1 prevalence and factors associated with infection in the conflict-affected region of North Uganda

BACKGROUND: Since 1986, northern Uganda has been severely affected by civil strife with most of its population currently living internally displaced in protected camps. This study aims at estimating the HIV-1 prevalence among this population and the factors associated with infection. METHODS: In June-December 2005, a total of 3051 antenatal clinics attendees in Gulu, Kitgum and Pader districts were anonymously tested for HIV-1 infection as part of routine sentinel surveillance. Factors associated with the infection were evaluated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: The age-standardised HIV-1 prevalence was 10.3%, 9.1% and 4.3% in the Gulu, Kitgum and Pader district, respectively. The overall prevalence in the area comprised of these districts was 8.2% when data was weighted according to the districts' population size. Data from all sites combined show that, besides older women [20–24 years: adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29–2.97; 25–29 years: AOR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.30–3.11; ≥ 30 years: AOR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.23–2.97], unmarried women (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.06–2.04), and those with a partner with a non-traditional occupation (AOR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.18–2.21), women living outside of protected camps for internally displaced persons have a higher risk of being HIV-1 infected than internally displaced women (AOR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.15–2.08). CONCLUSION: Although published data from Gulu district show a declining HIV-1 prevalence trend that is consistent with that observed at the national level since 1993, the prevalence in North Uganda is still high. Internally displaced women have a lower risk of being infected probably because of their reduced mobility and accessibility, and increased access to health prevention services

Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods

CITATION: Kim, A. A. et al. 2011. Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda : a systematic comparison of multiple methods. PLos ONE, 6(3): e17535, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0017535.The original publication is available at http://journals.plos.org/plosoneBackground: Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1) Epidemic Projections Package (EPP) and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC) and national population-based surveys (NPS) in Kenya (2003, 2007) and Uganda (2004/2005); 2) a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR) for the assay; (4) community cohorts in Uganda; (5) prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI) 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005) and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007). Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005) and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007). Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya. Conclusions/Significance: Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay's FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0017535Publisher's versio

Integrating health services for HIV infection, diabetes and hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa: a cohort study

Background HIV, diabetes and hypertension have a high disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Healthcare is organised in separate clinics, which may be inefficient. In a cohort study, we evaluated integrated management of these conditions from a single chronic care clinic.ObjectivesTo determined the feasibility and acceptability of integrated management of chronic conditions in terms of retention in care and clinical indicators. Design and setting Prospective cohort study comprising patients attending 10 health facilities offering primary care in Dar es Salaam and Kampala. Intervention Clinics within health facilities were set up to provide integrated care. Patients with either HIV, diabetes or hypertension had the same waiting areas, the same pharmacy, were seen by the same clinical staff, had similar provision of adherence counselling and tracking if they failed to attend appointments. Primary outcome measures Retention in care, plasma viral load. Findings Between 5 August 2018 and 21 May 2019, 2640 patients were screened of whom 2273 (86%) were enrolled into integrated care (832 with HIV infection, 313 with diabetes, 546 with hypertension and 582 with multiple conditions). They were followed up to 30 January 2020. Overall, 1615 (71.1%)/2273 were female and 1689 (74.5%)/2266 had been in care for 6 months or more. The proportions of people retained in care were 686/832 (82.5%, 95% CI: 79.9% to 85.1%) among those with HIV infection, 266/313 (85.0%, 95% CI: 81.1% to 89.0%) among those with diabetes, 430/546 (78.8%, 95% CI: 75.4% to 82.3%) among those with hypertension and 529/582 (90.9%, 95% CI: 88.6 to 93.3) among those with multimorbidity. Among those with HIV infection, the proportion with plasma viral load <100 copies/mL was 423(88.5%)/478. Conclusion Integrated management of chronic diseases is a feasible strategy for the control of HIV, diabetes and hypertension in Africa and needs evaluation in a comparative study