Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Nigeria

This paper investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in Nigeria and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds, for the period 1970-2009. We made attempt to advance the field by testing the traditional closed-economy Fisher hypothesis and an augmented Fisher hypothesis by incorporating the foreign interest rate and nominal effective exchange rate variable in the context of a small open developing economy, such as, Nigeria. The stability of the functions was also tested by CUSUM and CUSUMSQ. Our findings tend to suggest: (i) that the nominal interest rates and expected inflation move together in the long run but not on one-to-one basis. This indicates that full Fisher hypothesis does not hold but there is a strong Fisher effect in the case of Nigeria over the period under study (ii) consistency with the international Fisher hypothesis, these domestic variables have a long run relationship with the international variables (iii) in the closed-economy context,the causality run strictly from expected inflation to nominal interest rates as suggested by the Fisher hypothesis and there is no “reverse causation.” But in the open economy context, the expected inflation and international variables contain the information that predict the nominal interest rate(iv) that only about 29 percent of the disequilibrium between long term and short term interest rate is corrected within the year. (v) finally, CUSUM test stability of the coefficients

Exchange Rate –Oil Price Nexus: The Role of Asymmetries

Using the case of the Nigerian economy, this paper utilize both the linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks to investigate the short and long run symmetric and asymmetric response of exchange rate to oil price changes. We fail to reject the null hypothesis of no asymmetry though, the fact that the empirical evidence as established in the context of this study reveals the response of exchange rate to oil price shocks as more significantly pronounced when the changes in oil price is positive is quite instructive not to entirely ignores possible asymmetric implications of exchange rate –oil price relationship in Nigeria. JEL Classification: C22, F30, F31 Keywords: Oil price; Exchange rates; Asymmetries; Nonlinear ARD

The Effect of Federal Government Size on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1961-2011

This study investigates whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between federal government expenditures and growth in real per-capita GDP in the Nigeria, using long and up to date available time series data (1961-2011). After studying the time-series properties of these variables for stationarity and cointegration, we adopted Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) Granger non-causality tests and investigate Granger causality in detail in the context of a Vector Autoregressive Model. The Empirical results from cointegration test indicate that there exists no long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The Toda and Yamamoto’s causality test results show that Wagner’s Law does not hold over the period being tested. However, using VAR Granger causality test we found a weak empirical support in the proposition by Keynes that public expenditure is an exogenous factor and a policy instrument for increasing national income in the short run. Keywords: Federal government size, Wagner’s Law, Cointegration, Granger causality, Vector Autoregressio

The Effect of Federal Government Size on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1961-2011

This study investigates whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between federal government expenditures and growth in real per-capita GDP in the Nigeria, using long and up to date available time series data (1961-2011). After studying the time-series properties of these variables for stationarity and cointegration, we adopted Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) Granger non-causality tests and investigate Granger causality in detail in the context of a Vector Autoregressive Model. The Empirical results from cointegration test indicate that there exists no long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The Toda and Yamamoto’s causality test results show that Wagner’s Law does not hold over the period being tested. However, using VAR Granger causality test we found a weak empirical support in the proposition by Keynes that public expenditure is an exogenous factor and a policy instrument for increasing national income in the short run. Keywords: Federal government size, Wagner’s Law, Cointegration, Granger causality, Vector Autoregressio

Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Nigeria

This paper investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in Nigeria and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds, for the period 1970-2009. We made attempt to advance the field by testing the traditional closed-economy Fisher hypothesis and an augmented Fisher hypothesis by incorporating the foreign interest rate and nominal effective exchange rate variable in the context of a small open developing economy, such as, Nigeria. The stability of the functions was also tested by CUSUM and CUSUMSQ. Our findings tend to suggest: (i) that the nominal interest rates and expected inflation move together in the long run but not on one-to-one basis. This indicates that full Fisher hypothesis does not hold but there is a strong Fisher effect in the case of Nigeria over the period under study (ii) consistency with the international Fisher hypothesis, these domestic variables have a long run relationship with the international variables (iii) in the closed-economy context,the causality run strictly from expected inflation to nominal interest rates as suggested by the Fisher hypothesis and there is no “reverse causation.” But in the open economy context, the expected inflation and international variables contain the information that predict the nominal interest rate(iv) that only about 29 percent of the disequilibrium between long term and short term interest rate is corrected within the year. (v) finally, CUSUM test stability of the coefficients

Export - led growth or growth – driven exports? Evidence from Nigeria

This paper examined the role of export in the economic growth process in Nigeria. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2009 was used and the study employs unit root testing, co-integration analysis and VAR Granger Causality/Exogeneity Wald Tests to analyze annual time series data from Nigeria. The study uses three measures of export namely, Total export, Oil export and Non-Oil export. This enhances the stability and robustness of results. The unit root test showed that both economic growth and export are integrated of order one, i.e. 1(1). The cointegration test confirmed for model 1 and model 2 (where total exports and oil exports are used respectively as proxy for Nigeria exports) that economic growth and export are cointegrated, indicating an existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the two as confirmed by the Johansen cointegration test results. However, there is no evidence of cointegration between export and economic growth for model 3. Granger causality was applied to test the causal relationship between GDP and economic growth. The results show that there is evidence of uni-directional causality between export and economic growth in Nigeria in three measures of exports and the direction of causality runs strictly from economic growth to exports. This study provided support for growth-led export in case of Nigeria. Thus effort should be direct towards policies that will enhance economic growth such as import substitution industrialization (ISI) strategy, in order to impact more on exports

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

A new molecular variant of luteinizing hormone associated with female infertility

10.1016/S0015-0282(97)00445-7Fertility and Sterility691102-106FEST