Public Health Spending and Health Outcomes in Kenya

Health is important for sustainable economic performance of a country. This study seeks to investigate the effectiveness of public health spending on health outcomes. This is obtained by estimating a health production function for Kenya. In the study, infant mortality rate is used to measure health outcomes. The study uses time series data running from 1984 to 2015. The data is obtained from World Bank database and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Surveys. Error Correction Model (ECM) is adopted due to presence of cointegration. The results show that public expenditure on average influence health outcomes in Kenya. These results therefore provide evidence to support that increase in public expenditure improves health outcomes. The other factor that is found to be important determinant of health outcomes in Kenya is child immunization. The major policy implication of this study is that Kenyan government should increase budgetary allocation to health sector. In addition, government of Kenya should allocate more resources to child immunization

Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes in Kenya

Health inputs are critical in attaining a healthy nation and improving health outcomes. Kenya, like other developing countries, grapples with limited health expenditures and poor population health indicators. Specifically, Kenya is yet to achieve the allocation of least 15% of the government’s annual budget to improve the health sector as enshrined in the Abuja Declaration. Though there is an improvement with regards to infant mortality rate decreasing from 96.6 per 1, 000 live birth in 1970 to 30.6 per 1, 000 live birth in 2018. This indicator of population health outcome is currently far below the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of reducing the under five mortality rate to as low as 12 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. The literature suggests that increase in government’s budgetary allocation to the health sector can improve country’s health outcomes. Evidence on the impact of health expenditures on health outcomes is mixed and limited in developing countries. This study aims to analyze the impact of public health expenditures on health outcomes, among other control variables in Kenya. The study uses time series data from 1970 to 2018. The variables are found to be integrated of different orders suggesting the choice of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. ARDL provides a useful link between long run equilibrium relationships and short run disequilibrium dynamics is estimated. The ARDL bounds test suggests presence of cointegration thus leading to the estimation of Error Correction Model (ECM). The findings suggest that improvements in public health expenditures enhance health outcomes in Kenya. The control variablesthat are found to be important determinants of infant mortality rate in Kenya include the national income and number of hospital beds per 100, 000. The study recommends that Kenyan government should increase annual budgetary allocation to health sector. Such increase is likely to lead to investments in physical and human capital in the health sector thus translating to improved health outcomes in Kenya

Accuracy of diagnostic tests for respiratory syncytial virus infection within a paediatric hospital population in Kilifi County, Kenya

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-induced lower respiratory tract disease is a prominent cause of hospitalisation among children aged 91%) and closely mimicked the pattern given by the Se and Sp values respectively. None of the examined covariates (age, sex and pneumonia status) significantly influenced the accuracy of the tests. The evaluation found little to choose between the three diagnostic tests. Nonetheless, with its relative affordability, the conventional IFAT continues to hold promise for use in patient care and surveillance activities for RSV infection within settings where children are hospitalised with severe acute respiratory illness. [Abstract copyright: Copyright: © 2020 Mweu MM et al.

Surveillance of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, OC43 and 229E) associated with pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya

Introduction: Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) circulate endemically in human populations, often with seasonal variation. We describe the long-term patterns of paediatric disease associated with three of these viruses, HCoV-NL63, OC43 and 229E, in coastal Kenya. Methods: Continuous surveillance of pneumonia admissions was conducted at the Kilifi county hospital (KCH) located in the northern coastal region of Kenya. Children aged &lt;5 years admitted to KCH with clinically defined syndromic severe or very severe pneumonia were recruited. Respiratory samples were taken and tested for 15 virus targets, using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Unadjusted odds ratios were used to estimate the association between demographic and clinical characteristics and HCoV positivity. Results: From 2007 to 2019, we observed 11,445 pneumonia admissions, of which 314 (3.9%) tested positive for at least one HCoV type. There were 129 (41.1%) OC43, 99 (31.5%) 229E, 74 (23.6%) NL63 positive cases and 12 (3.8%) cases of HCoV to HCoV coinfection.  Among HCoV positive cases, 47% (n=147) were coinfected with other respiratory virus pathogens. The majority of HCoV cases were among children aged &lt;1 year (66%, n=208), though there was no age-dependence in the proportion testing positive. HCoV-OC43 was predominant of the three HCoV types throughout the surveillance period. Evidence for seasonality was not identified. Conclusions: Overall, 4% of paediatric pneumonia admissions were associated with three endemic HCoVs, with a high proportion of cases co-occurring with another respiratory virus, with no clear seasonal pattern, and with the age-distribution of cases following that of pneumonia admissions (i.e. highest in infants). These observations suggest, at most, a small severe disease contribution of endemic HCoVs in this tropical setting and offer insight into the potential future burden and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2.</ns4:p

Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships

Genomic epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus group B in Kilifi, Kenya, 2015-17

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulates worldwide, occurring seasonally in communities, and is a leading cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. There is paucity of genomic data from purposively sampled populations by which to investigate evolutionary dynamics and transmission patterns of RSV. Here we present an analysis of 295 RSV group B (RSVB) genomes from Kilifi, coastal Kenya, sampled from individuals seeking outpatient care in 9 health facilities across a defined geographical area (∼890 km2), over 2 RSV epidemics between 2015 and 2017. RSVB diversity was characterized by multiple virus introductions into the area and co-circulation of distinct genetic clusters, which transmitted and diversified locally with varying frequency. Increase in relative genetic diversity paralleled seasonal virus incidence. Importantly, we identified a cluster of viruses that emerged in the 2016/17 epidemic, carrying distinct amino-acid signatures including a novel non-synonymous change (K68Q) in antigenic site ∅ in the Fusion protein. RSVB diversity was additionally marked by signature non-synonymous substitutions that were unique to particular genomic clusters, some under diversifying selection. Our findings provide insights into recent evolutionary and epidemiological behaviors of RSV group B, and highlight possible emergence of a novel antigenic variant, which has implications on current prophylactic strategies in development

Evolution of respiratory syncytial virus genotype BA in Kilifi, Kenya, 15 years on

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is recognised as a leading cause of severe acute respiratory disease and deaths among infants and vulnerable adults. Clinical RSV isolates can be divided into several known genotypes. RSV genotype BA, characterised by a 60-nucleotide duplication in the G glycoprotein gene, emerged in 1999 and quickly disseminated globally replacing other RSV group B genotypes. Continual molecular epidemiology is critical to understand the evolutionary processes maintaining the success of the BA viruses. We analysed 735 G gene sequences from samples collected from paediatric patients in Kilifi, Kenya, between 2003 and 2017. The virus population comprised of several genetically distinct variants (n = 56) co-circulating within and between epidemics. In addition, there was consistent seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity. Amino acid changes increasingly accumulated over the surveillance period including two residues (N178S and Q180R) that mapped to monoclonal antibody 2D10 epitopes, as well as addition of putative N-glycosylation sequons. Further, switching and toggling of amino acids within and between epidemics was observed. On a global phylogeny, the BA viruses from different countries form geographically isolated clusters suggesting substantial localized variants. This study offers insights into longitudinal population dynamics of a globally endemic RSV genotype within a discrete location

Surveillance of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, OC43 and 229E) associated with childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya.

Introduction: Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) circulate endemically in human populations, often with seasonal variation. We describe the long-term patterns of paediatric disease associated with three of these viruses, HCoV-NL63, OC43 and 229E, in coastal Kenya. Methods: Continuous surveillance of pneumonia admissions was conducted at the Kilifi county hospital (KCH) located in the northern coastal region of Kenya. Children aged <5 years admitted to KCH with clinically defined syndromic severe or very severe pneumonia were recruited. Respiratory samples were taken and tested for 15 virus targets, using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Unadjusted odds ratios were used to estimate the association between demographic and clinical characteristics and HCoV positivity. Results: From 2007 to 2019, we observed 11,445 pneumonia admissions, of which 314 (3.9%) tested positive for at least one of the HCoV types surveyed in the study. There were 129 (41.1%) OC43, 99 (31.5%) 229E, 74 (23.6%) NL63 positive cases and 12 (3.8%) cases of HCoV to HCoV coinfection.  Among HCoV positive cases, 47% (n=147) were coinfected with other respiratory virus pathogens. The majority of HCoV cases were among children aged <1 year (66%, n=208), though there was was no change in the proportion infected by age. HCoV-OC43 was predominant of the three HCoV types throughout the surveillance period. Evidence for seasonality was not identified. Conclusions: Overall, 4% of paediatric pneumonia admissions were associated with three endemic HCoVs, with a high proportion of cases co-occurring with another respiratory virus, no clear seasonal pattern, and with the age-distribution of cases following that of pneumonia admissions (i.e. highest in infants). These observations suggest, at most, a small severe disease contribution of endemic HCoVs in this tropical setting and offer insight into their potential future burden and epidemiological characteristics

Individualized breastfeeding support for acutely ill, malnourished infants under 6 months old

Reestablishing exclusive breastfeeding is the cornerstone of the 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines for acute malnutrition in infants less than 6 months. However, no studies have investigated guideline implementation and subsequent outcomes in a public hospital setting in Africa. To facilitate implementation of the WHO 2013 guidelines in Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, we developed standard operating procedure, recruited, and trained three breastfeeding peer supporters (BFPS). Between September 2016 and January 2018, the BFPS provided individual breastfeeding support to mothers of infants aged 4 weeks to 4 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital with an illness and acute malnutrition (mid-upper-arm circumference \u3c 11.0 cm OR weight-for-age z score \u3c -2 OR weight-for-length z score \u3c -2). Infants were followed daily while in hospital then every 2 weeks for 6 weeks after discharge with data collected on breastfeeding, infant growth, morbidity, and mortality. Of 106 infants with acute malnutrition at admission, 51 met the inclusion criteria for the study. Most enrolled mothers had multiple breastfeeding challenges, which were predominantly technique based. Exclusive breastfeeding was 55% at admission and 81% at discharge; at discharge 67% of infants had attained a weight velocity of \u3e5 g/kg/day for three consecutive days on breastmilk alone. Gains in weight-for-length z score and weight-for-age z score were generally not sustained beyond 2 weeks after discharge. BFPS operated effectively in an inpatient setting, applying the 2013 updated WHO guidelines and increasing rates of exclusive breastfeeding at discharge. However, lack of continued increase in anthropometric Z scores after discharge suggests the need for more sustained interventions

Temporal changes in the positivity rate of common enteric viruses among paediatric admissions in coastal Kenya, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019–2022

Background: The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to curb the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, substantially disrupted the activity of other respiratory viruses. However, there is limited data from low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) to determine whether these NPIs also impacted the transmission of common enteric viruses. Here, we investigated the changes in the positivity rate of five enteric viruses among hospitalised children who presented with diarrhoea to a referral hospital in coastal Kenya, during COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: A total of 870 stool samples from children under 13 years of age admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between January 2019, and December 2022 were screened for rotavirus group A (RVA), norovirus genogroup II (GII), astrovirus, sapovirus, and adenovirus type F40/41 using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. The proportions positive across the four years were compared using the chi-squared test statistic. Results: One or more of the five virus targets were detected in 282 (32.4%) cases. A reduction in the positivity rate of RVA cases was observed from 2019 (12.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.7–16.2%) to 2020 (1.7%, 95% CI 0.2–6.0%; p < 0.001). However, in the 2022, RVA positivity rate rebounded to 23.5% (95% CI 18.2%–29.4%). For norovirus GII, the positivity rate fluctuated over the four years with its highest positivity rate observed in 2020 (16.2%; 95% C.I, 10.0–24.1%). No astrovirus cases were detected in 2020 and 2021, but the positivity rate in 2022 was similar to that in 2019 (3.1% (95% CI 1.5%–5.7%) vs. 3.3% (95% CI 1.4–6.5%)). A higher case fatality rate was observed in 2021 (9.0%) compared to the 2019 (3.2%), 2020 (6.8%) and 2022 (2.1%) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our study finds that in 2020 the transmission of common enteric viruses, especially RVA and astrovirus, in Kilifi Kenya may have been disrupted due to the COVID-19 NPIs. After 2020, local enteric virus transmission patterns appeared to return to pre-pandemic levels coinciding with the removal of most of the government COVID-19 NPIs