Multidisciplinary Probabilistic Heat Transfer/Structural Analysis Code Developed: NESTEM

High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) engine combustor liners are subjected to complex thermal environments and have to endure these for thousands of hours with assured reliability. In the past, several deterministic analyses have been performed, including detailed heat transfer analyses to obtain thermal profiles and deterministic stress analyses to identify critical locations of high stresses. Actual rig tests also have been performed for segments by simulating these loading situations as closely as possible. However, it is well known that many uncertainties exist in loading (primarily thermal loads due to heat transfer), boundary conditions (end fixity unknowns), and material properties (moduli, thermal-expansion coefficients, and conductivities). The present in-house effort at the NASA Lewis Research Center is directed toward accounting for these in a formal way to assess the performance of liner components under complex and uncertain loading conditions as well as subject to other geometry- and material-related uncertainties

Statistical Analyses of Raw Material Data for MTM45-1/CF7442A-36% RW: CMH Cure Cycle

This report describes statistical characterization of physical properties of the composite material system MTM45-1/CF7442A, which has been tested and is currently being considered for use on spacecraft structures. This composite system is made of 6K plain weave graphite fibers in a highly toughened resin system. This report summarizes the distribution types and statistical details of the tests and the conditions for the experimental data generated. These distributions will be used in multivariate regression analyses to help determine material and design allowables for similar material systems and to establish a procedure for other material systems. Additionally, these distributions will be used in future probabilistic analyses of spacecraft structures. The specific properties that are characterized are the ultimate strength, modulus, and Poissons ratio by using a commercially available statistical package. Results are displayed using graphical and semigraphical methods and are included in the accompanying appendixes

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary

Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessels: Mechanics and Stress Rupture Lifting Philosophy

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has been conducting an independent technical assessment to address safety concerns related to the known stress rupture failure mode of filament wound pressure vessels in use on Shuttle and the International Space Station. The Shuttle s Kevlar-49 (DuPont) fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar-49 filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of load sharing liners and the complex manufacturing procedures, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. Indeed nonconservative life predictions have been made where stress rupture data and lifing procedures have ignored the contribution of the liner in favor of applied pressure as the controlling load parameter. With the aid of analytical and finite element results, this paper examines the fundamental mechanical response of composite overwrapped pressure vessels including the influence of elastic plastic liners and degraded/creeping overwrap properties. Graphical methods are presented describing the non-linear relationship of applied pressure to Kevlar-49 fiber stress/strain during manufacturing, operations and burst loadings. These are applied to experimental measurements made on a variety of vessel systems to demonstrate the correct calibration of fiber stress as a function of pressure. Applying this analysis to the actual qualification burst data for Shuttle flight hardware revealed that the nominal fiber stress at burst was in some cases 23 percent lower than what had previously been used to predict stress rupture life. These results motivate a detailed discussion of the appropriate stress rupture lifing philosophy for COPVs including the correct transference of stress rupture life data between dissimilar vessels and test articles

Fiber Breakage Model for Carbon Composite Stress Rupture Phenomenon: Theoretical Development and Applications

Stress rupture failure of Carbon Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) is of serious concern to Science Mission and Constellation programs since there are a number of COPVs on board space vehicles with stored gases under high pressure for long durations of time. It has become customary to establish the reliability of these vessels using the so called classic models. The classical models are based on Weibull statistics fitted to observed stress rupture data. These stochastic models cannot account for any additional damage due to the complex pressure-time histories characteristic of COPVs being supplied for NASA missions. In particular, it is suspected that the effects of proof test could significantly reduce the stress rupture lifetime of COPVs. The focus of this paper is to present an analytical appraisal of a model that incorporates damage due to proof test. The model examined in the current paper is based on physical mechanisms such as micromechanics based load sharing concepts coupled with creep rupture and Weibull statistics. For example, the classic model cannot accommodate for damage due to proof testing which every flight vessel undergoes. The paper compares current model to the classic model with a number of examples. In addition, several applications of the model to current ISS and Constellation program issues are also examined

TURBOMAT: A Probabilistic Turbomachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool

An integration of aeroelastic analysis procedures with probabilistic analysis methods enables us to design safe reliable engines with quantified reliability. Towards this goal, a graphical user interface (GUI) based tool that integrates the codes Aeroelastic analysis of propfans (ASTROP2) and Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) is developed. The tool entitled TURBOMachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool (TURBOMAT), is developed utilizing the MATrix Laboratory (Matlab) Guide (Graphical User Interface Development) tool box. TURBOMAT provides a user friendly computational environment for rapid assessment of Turbomachinery blades flutter characteristics, subjected to uncertain loading conditions with variability in material and aerodynamic properties. The tool is seen as an education tool for new students and young engineers starting their careers in structural Aeroelasticity who want to learn and understand aeroelastic aspects of turbomachinery components, fans, compressors and turbines, including uncertainties in loading and material properties.A typical fan blade configuration geometry was chosen to demonstrate the tool. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF), the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and sensitivity factors. Both first order fast probability integration (FPI) and the Monto Carlo (MC) techniques are used in the analysis and compared. The tool enabled us to quantify blade flutter reliability as well as the ranking of uncertain variables and their importance to blade flutter response

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser

Reliability Considerations for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels on Spacecraft

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are used to store gases under high pressure onboard spacecraft. These are used for a variety of purposes such as propelling liquid fuel etc, Kevlar, glass, Carbon and other more recent fibers have all been in use to overwrap the vessels. COPVs usually have a thin metallic liner with the primary purpose of containing the gases and prevent any leakage. The liner is overwrapped with filament wound composite such as Kevlar, Carbon or Glass fiber. Although the liner is required to perform in the leak before break mode making the failure a relatively benign mode, the overwrap can fail catastrophically under sustained load due to stress rupture. It is this failure mode that is of major concern as the stored energy of such vessels is often great enough ta cause loss of crew and vehicle. The present paper addresses some of the reliability concerns associated specifically with Kevlar Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels. The primary focus of the paper is on how reliability of COPV's are established for the purpose of deciding in general their flight worthiness and continued use. Analytical models based on existing design data will be presented showing how to achieve the required reliability metric to the end of a specific period of performance. Uncertainties in the design parameters and how they affect reliability and confidence intervals will be addressed as well. Some trade studies showing how reliability changes with time during a program period will be presented

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements

A Theoretical Investigation of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Mechanics Applied to NASA Full Scale Tests

A theoretical investigation of the factors controlling the stress rupture life of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) continues. Kevlar (DuPont) fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of a load sharing liner, the manufacturing induced residual stresses and the complex mechanical response, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. This paper is a companion to a previously reported experimental investigation and develops a theoretical framework necessary to design full-scale pathfinder experiments and accurately interpret the experimentally observed deformation and failure mechanisms leading up to static burst in COPVs. The fundamental mechanical response of COPVs is described using linear elasticity and thin shell theory and discussed in comparison to existing experimental observations. These comparisons reveal discrepancies between physical data and the current analytical results and suggest that the vessel s residual stress state and the spatial stress distribution as a function of pressure may be completely different from predictions based upon existing linear elastic analyses. The 3D elasticity of transversely isotropic spherical shells demonstrates that an overly compliant transverse stiffness relative to membrane stiffness can account for some of this by shifting a thin shell problem well into the realm of thick shell response. The use of calibration procedures are demonstrated as calibrated thin shell model results and finite element results are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental results. The successes reported here have lead to continuing work with full scale testing of larger NASA COPV hardware