Gaussian process model based predictive control

Gaussian process models provide a probabilistic non-parametric modelling approach for black-box identification of non-linear dynamic systems. The Gaussian processes can highlight areas of the input space where prediction quality is poor, due to the lack of data or its complexity, by indicating the higher variance around the predicted mean. Gaussian process models contain noticeably less coefficients to be optimized. This paper illustrates possible application of Gaussian process models within model-based predictive control. The extra information provided within Gaussian process model is used in predictive control, where optimization of control signal takes the variance information into account. The predictive control principle is demonstrated on control of pH process benchmark

Gaussian Process priors with uncertain inputs? Application to multiple-step ahead time series forecasting

We consider the problem of multi-step ahead prediction in time series analysis using the non-parametric Gaussian process model. k-step ahead forecasting of a discrete-time non-linear dynamic system can be performed by doing repeated one-step ahead predictions. For a state-space model of the form y t = f(Yt-1 ,..., Yt-L ), the prediction of y at time t + k is based on the point estimates of the previous outputs. In this paper, we show how, using an analytical Gaussian approximation, we can formally incorporate the uncertainty about intermediate regressor values, thus updating the uncertainty on the current prediction

Incidence of symptomatic toxoplasma eye disease: aetiology and public health implications.

Ocular disease is the commonest disabling consequence of toxoplasma infection. Incidence and lifetime risk of ocular symptoms were determined by ascertaining affected patients in a population-based, active reporting study involving ophthalmologists serving a population of 7.4 million. Eighty-seven symptomatic episodes were attributed to toxoplasma infection. Bilateral visual acuity of 6/12 or less was found in seven episodes (8%) and was likely to have been transient in most cases. Black people born in West Africa had a 100-fold higher incidence of symptoms than white people born in Britain. Only two patients reported symptoms before 10 years of age. The estimated lifetime risk of symptoms in British born individuals (52% of all episodes) was 18/100000 (95% confidence interval: 10.8-25.2). The low risk and mild symptoms in an unscreened British population indicate limited potential benefits of prenatal or postnatal screening. The late age at presentation suggests a mixed aetiology of postnatally acquired and congenital infection for which primary prevention may be appropriate, particularly among West Africans

Pharmacological and cell-specific genetic PI3Kα inhibition worsens cardiac remodeling after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: PI3Kα (Phosphoinositide 3-kinase α) regulates multiple downstream signaling pathways controlling cell survival, growth, and proliferation and is an attractive therapeutic target in cancer and obesity. The clinically-approved PI3Kα inhibitor, BYL719, is in further clinical trials for cancer and overgrowth syndrome. However, the potential impact of PI3Kα inhibition on the heart and following myocardial infarction (MI) is unclear. We aim to determine whether PI3Kα inhibition affects cardiac physiology and post-MI remodeling and to elucidate the underlying molecular mechanisms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Wildtype (WT) 12-wk old male mice receiving BYL719 (daily, p.o.) for 10 days showed reduction in left ventricular longitudinal strain with normal ejection fraction, weight loss, mild cardiac atrophy, body composition alteration, and prolonged QTC interval. RNASeq analysis showed gene expression changes in multiple pathways including extracellular matrix remodeling and signaling complexes. After MI, both p110α and phospho-Akt protein levels were increased in human and mouse hearts. Pharmacological PI3Kα inhibition aggravated cardiac dysfunction and resulted in adverse post-MI remodeling, with increased apoptosis, elevated inflammation, suppressed hypertrophy, decreased coronary blood vessel density, and inhibited Akt/GSK3β/eNOS signaling. Selective genetic ablation of PI3Kα in endothelial cells was associated with worsened post-MI cardiac function and reduced coronary blood vessel density. In vitro, BYL719 suppressed Akt/eNOS activation, cell viability, proliferation, and angiogenic sprouting in coronary and human umbilical vein endothelial cells. Cardiomyocyte-specific genetic PI3Kα ablation resulted in mild cardiac systolic dysfunction at baseline. After MI, cardiac function markedly deteriorated with increased mortality concordant with greater apoptosis and reduced hypertrophy. In isolated adult mouse cardiomyocytes, BYL719 decreased hypoxia-associated activation of Akt/GSK3β signaling and cell survival. CONCLUSIONS: PI3Kα is required for cell survival (endothelial cells and cardiomyocytes) hypertrophic response, and angiogenesis to maintain cardiac function after MI. Therefore, PI3Kα inhibition that is used as anti-cancer treatment, can be cardiotoxic, especially after MI

Suppression of erythropoiesis by dietary nitrate.

In mammals, hypoxia-triggered erythropoietin release increases red blood cell mass to meet tissue oxygen demands. Using male Wistar rats, we unmask a previously unrecognized regulatory pathway of erythropoiesis involving suppressor control by the NO metabolite and ubiquitous dietary component nitrate. We find that circulating hemoglobin levels are modulated by nitrate at concentrations achievable by dietary intervention under normoxic and hypoxic conditions; a moderate dose of nitrate administered via the drinking water (7 mg NaNO₃/kg body weight/d) lowered hemoglobin concentration and hematocrit after 6 d compared with nonsupplemented/NaCl-supplemented controls. The underlying mechanism is suppression of hepatic erythropoietin expression associated with the downregulation of tissue hypoxia markers, suggesting increased pO₂. At higher nitrate doses, however, a partial reversal of this effect occurred; this was accompanied by increased renal erythropoietin expression and stabilization of hypoxia-inducible factors, likely brought about by the relative anemia. Thus, hepatic and renal hypoxia-sensing pathways act in concert to modulate hemoglobin in response to nitrate, converging at an optimal minimal hemoglobin concentration appropriate to the environmental/physiologic situation. Suppression of hepatic erythropoietin expression by nitrate may thus act to decrease blood viscosity while matching oxygen supply to demand, whereas renal oxygen sensing could act as a brake, averting a potentially detrimental fall in hematocrit.This work was supported by British Heart Foundation Studentship FS/09/050 (to T.A.). A.J.M. thanks the Research Councils UK for supporting his academic fellowship and the WYNG Foundation of Hong Kong for support. J.L.G is supported by the European Union Framework 7 Inheritance project, R.S.J. is supported by a Wellcome Trust Principal research fellowship, and M.F. is supported by funds from the Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton