Outcome prediction for improvement of trauma care

The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate, develop and validate models for predicting fatal and non-fatal outcome after trauma in the Netherlands. The dissertation addresses the following questions: I. How can we improve and use prediction models for fatal outcome after trauma? II. To what extent can we predict non-fatal outcome after trauma

Health care and productivity costs of non-fatal traffic injuries: A comparison of road user types

This study aimed to provide a detailed overview of the health care and productivity costs of non-fatal road traffic injuries by road user type. In a cohort study in the Netherlands, adult injury patients admitted to a hospital as a result of a traffic accident completed questionnaires 1 week and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury, including the iMTA Medical Consumption and Productivity Cost Questionnaire. In-hospital, post-hospital medical costs and productivity costs were calculated up to two years after traffic injury. In total, 1024 patients were included in this study. The mean health care costs per patient were € 8200. The mean productivity costs were € 5900. Being female, older age, with higher injury severity and having multiple comorbidities were associated with higher health care costs. Higher injury severity and being male were associated with higher productivity costs. Pedestrians aged ≥ 65 years had the highest mean health care costs (€ 18,800) and motorcyclists the highest mean productivity costs (€ 9000). Bicycle injuries occurred most often in our sample (n = 554, 54.1%) and accounted for the highest total health care and productivity costs. Considering the high proportion of total costs incurred by bicycle injuries, this is an important area for the prevention of traffic injuries

Hip fractures in elderly people:Surgery or no surgery? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Iintroduction:  Increasing numbers of patients with hip fractures also have advanced comorbidities. A majority are treated surgically. However, a significantly increasing percentage of medically unfit patients with unacceptably high risk of perioperative death are treated nonoperatively. Important questions about patients' prefracture quality of life (QOL) and future perspectives should be asked before considering different treatment options to assess what kind of treatment is advisable in frail elderly high-risk patients with a hip fracture. Objective:  The aim of this review was to provide an overview of differences in mortality, health-related QOL [(HR)QOL], functional outcome, and costs between nonoperative management (NOM) and operative management (OM) of hip fractures in patients above 65 years. Methods:  A systematic literature search was performed in EMBASE, OvidSP, PubMed, Cochrane Central, and Web of Science for observational studies and trials. Observational studies and randomized controlled trials comparing NOM with OM in hip fracture patients were selected. The methodological quality of the selected studies was assessed according to the Methodological Index for Nonrandomized Studies (MINORS) or Furlan checklist. Results:  Seven observational studies were included with a total of 1189 patients, of whom 242 (20.3%) were treated conservatively. The methodological quality of the studies was moderate (mean: 14.7, standard deviation [SD]: 1.5). The 30-day and 1-year mortalities were higher in the nonoperative group (odds ratio [OR]: 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-10.96; OR: 3.84, 95% CI: 1.57-9.41). None of the included studies compared QOL, functional outcome, or health-care costs between the 2 groups. Conclusion:  This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrated that only a few studies with small number of patients comparing NOM with OM were published. A significantly higher 30-day and 1-year mortality was revealed in nonoperatively treated hip fracture patients. No data were found examining (HR)QOL and costs. Further work is needed to enable shared decision-making and to initiate NOM in frail elderly patients with advanced comorbidity and limited life expectancy

Association of longitudinal changes in patient-reported health status with return to work in the first 2 years after traumatic injury:A prospective cohort study in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prognostic value of time driven changes in health status on return to work (RTW) in the first 2 years after traumatic injury. DESIGN: A prospective longitudinal cohort study. All patient-reported outcomes were measured at 1 week, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury. SETTING: Ten participating hospitals in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Employed adult clinical injury patients admitted to the hospital between August 2015 and November 2016 (N=1245 patients). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Data about (first) RTW were used from the patient-reported questionnaires (1=yes, 0=no). RTW was measured as the first time a patient started working after hospital admission. Time until RTW was calculated in weeks. Health status was measured with the EuroQol Five Dimensions-3 Levels (EQ5D) including a dimension to measure cognition. RESULTS: At 24 months, 88.5% (n=1102) of the patients had returned to work. The median time to RTW was 6.6 weeks (IQR: 2–13). Patients’ health status was found to be an independent prognostic factor for RTW: a 0.1-unit increase in EQ5D (scale 0–1) translated into RTW being four times more likely (95% CI 1.60 to 11.94). Patients who had moderate or severe problems (0=no problems, 1=moderate or severe problems) with mobility (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.98), anxiety/depression (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.91), usual activities (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.98), self-care (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.99) and cognition (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.94) were significantly less likely to RTW compared with patients with no problems. CONCLUSION: Increased self-reported health status over time is associated with a higher likelihood of RTW, independent of baseline risk factors, such as injury severity or education. Knowledge on patient-reported outcomes can contribute to the development of tailored RTW treatments. Furthermore, patient-reported outcomes could be used as monitoring tool to guide postinjury care in the clinical setting and RTW process. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02508675; Results

Performance of the modified TRISS for evaluating trauma care in subpopulations: A cohort study

Introduction: Previous research showed that there is no agreement on a practically applicable model to use in the evaluation of trauma care. A modification of the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (modified TRISS) is used to evaluate trauma care in the Netherlands. The aim of this study w

Prognostic factors for medical and productivity costs, and return to work after trauma

Aim The aim of this study was to determine prognostic factors for medical and productivity costs, and return to work (RTW) during the first two years after trauma in a clinical trauma population. Methods This prospective multicentre observational study followed all adult trauma patients (≥18 years) admitted to a hospital in Noord-Brabant, the Netherlands from August 2015 through November 2016. Health care consumption, productivity loss and return to work were measured in questionnaires at 1 week, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury. Data was linked with hospital registries. Prognostic factors for medical costs and productivity costs were analysed with log-linked gamma generalized linear models. Prognostic factors for RTW were assessed with Cox proportional hazards model. The predictive ability of the models was assessed with McFadden R2 (explained variance) and c-statistics (discrimination). Results A total of 3785 trauma patients (39% of total study population) responded to at least one follow-up questionnaire. Mean medical costs per patient (€9,710) and mean productivity costs per patient (€9,000) varied widely. Prognostic factors for high medical costs were higher age, female gender, spine injury, lower extremity injury, severe head injury, high injury severity, comorbidities, and pre-injury health status. Productivity costs were highest in males, and in patients with spinal cord injury, high injury severity, longer length of stay at the hospital and patients admitted to the ICU. Prognostic factors for RTW were high educational level, male gender, low injury severity, shorter length of stay at the hospital and absence of comorbidity. Conclusions Productivity costs and RTW should be considered when assessing the economic impact of injury in addition to medical costs. Prognostic factors may assist in identifying high cost groups with potentially modifiable factors for targeted preventive interventions, hence reducing costs and increasing RTW rates

Prediction of Cognitive Recovery after Stroke:The Value of Diffusion-Weighted Imaging–Based Measures of Brain Connectivity

Background and Purpose: Prediction of long-term recovery of a poststroke cognitive disorder (PSCD) is currently inaccurate. We assessed whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)–based measures of brain connectivity predict cognitive recovery 1 year after stroke in patients with PSCD in addition to conventional clinical, neuropsychological, and imaging variables. Methods: This prospective monocenter cohort study included 217 consecutive patients with a clinical diagnosis of ischemic stroke, aged ≥50 years, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment score below 26 during hospitalization. Five weeks after stroke, patients underwent DWI magnetic resonance imaging. Neuropsychological assessment was performed 5 weeks and 1 year after stroke and was used to classify PSCD as absent, modest, or marked. Cognitive recovery was operationalized as a shift to a better PSCD category over time. We evaluated 4 DWI-based measures of brain connectivity: global network efficiency and mean connectivity strength, both weighted for mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy. Conventional predictors were age, sex, level of education, clinical stroke characteristics, neuropsychological variables, and magnetic resonance imaging findings (eg, infarct size). DWI-based measures of brain connectivity were added to a multivariable model to assess additive predictive value. Results: Of 135 patients (mean age, 71 years; 95 men [70%]) with PSCD 5 weeks after ischemic stroke, 41 (30%) showed cognitive recovery. Three of 4 brain connectivity measures met the predefined threshold of P<0.1 in univariable regression analysis. There was no added value of these measures to a multivariable model that included level of education and infarct size as significant predictors of cognitive recovery. Conclusions: Current DWI-based measures of brain connectivity appear to predict recovery of PSCD but at present have no added value over conventional predictors