El Niño increases the risk of lower Mississippi River flooding

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 1772, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01919-6.Mississippi River floods rank among the costliest climate-related disasters in the world. Improving flood predictability, preparedness, and response at seasonal to decadal time-scales requires an understanding of the climatic controls that govern flood occurrence. Linking flood occurrence to persistent modes of climate variability like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has proven challenging, due in part to the limited number of high-magnitude floods available for study in the instrumental record. To augment the relatively short instrumental record, we use output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to investigate the dynamical controls on discharge extremes of the lower Mississippi River. We show that through its regional influence on surface water storage, the warm phase of ENSO preconditions the lower Mississippi River to be vulnerable to flooding. In the 6–12 months preceding a flood, El Niño generates a positive precipitation anomaly over the lower Mississippi basin that gradually builds up soil moisture and reduces the basin’s infiltration capacity, thereby elevating the risk of a major flood during subsequent rainstorms. Our study demonstrates how natural climate variability mediates the formation of extreme floods on one of the world’s principal commercial waterways, adding significant predictive ability to near- and long-term forecasts of flood risk.This work was funded through the Postdoctoral Scholar Program of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the Voss Environmental Postdoctoral Fellows Program at Brown University

Outbreak of an undetected invasive species triggered by a climate anomaly

© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecosphere 7 (2016): e01628, doi:10.1002/ecs2.1628.When an invasive species appears at a new location, we typically have no knowledge of the population dynamics leading up to that moment. Is the establishment of invasive propagules closely followed by the appearance of the population? Or alternatively, was there an established low-density population that was released from a constraint and crossed the detection threshold? The early stages of the invasion process are a critical gap in our knowledge, yet vitally important for the detection and management of invasions. Here, we present multiple lines of evidence supporting the lag scenario for an invasive species outbreak. The invasive predatory zooplankton, spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), was detected in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin (USA), in summer of 2009 and rapidly reached and sustained exceptionally high densities. To evaluate whether Bythotrephes' outbreak immediately followed introduction or erupted from an established low-density population, we constructed a population model of Bythotrephes in Lake Mendota. In the model, Bythotrephes persisted indefinitely at low levels until favorable thermal conditions in 2009, the coolest July since at least 1895, allowed it to erupt to high densities and establish a large egg bank in the lake sediments. The egg bank stabilized the population in the high-density state despite a return to nonfavorable thermal conditions, which is further supported by demographic data suggesting a constant contribution from the egg bank during the year. The prolonged lag scenario is corroborated by the detection of two individual Bythotrephes in pre-2009 archived samples, and the detection of Bythotrephes spines in lake sediment core layers dating back to 1994 (±5 yr). Together, our results suggest that Bythotrephes persisted for at least a decade below the detection limit, until optimal thermal conditions triggered a population outbreak. This work highlights the potential for environmental conditions to trigger invasive species outbreaks from low-density populations.NSF North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research Program Grant Numbers: DEB-0217533, DEB-1440297; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resource

Lipid biomarker record documents hydroclimatic variability of the Mississippi River Basin during the common era

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Munoz, S. E., Porter, T. J., Bakkelund, A., Nusbaumer, J., Dee, S. G., Hamilton, B., Giosan, L., & Tierney, J. E. Lipid biomarker record documents hydroclimatic variability of the Mississippi River Basin during the common era. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(12), (2020): e2020GL087237, doi:10.1029/2020GL087237.Floods and droughts in the Mississippi River basin are perennial hazards that cause severe economic disruption. Here we develop and analyze a new lipid biomarker record from Horseshoe Lake (Illinois, USA) to evaluate the climatic conditions associated with hydroclimatic extremes that occurred in this region over the last 1,800 years. We present geochemical proxy evidence of temperature and moisture variability using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and plant leaf wax hydrogen isotopic composition (δ2Hwax) and use isotope‐enabled coupled model simulations to diagnose the controls on these proxies. Our data show pronounced warming during the Medieval era (CE 1000–1,600) that corresponds to midcontinental megadroughts. Severe floods on the upper Mississippi River basin also occurred during the Medieval era and correspond to periods of enhanced warm‐season moisture. Our findings imply that projected increases in temperature and warm‐season precipitation could enhance both drought and flood hazards in this economically vital region.This project was supported by grants to S. E. M and L. G. (NSF EAR‐1804107), T. J. P. (NSERC Discovery Grant), and S. G. D. (NOAA‐NA18OAR4310427)

Automorphisms of Real 4 Dimensional Lie Algebras and the Invariant Characterization of Homogeneous 4-Spaces

The automorphisms of all 4-dimensional, real Lie Algebras are presented in a comprehensive way. Their action on the space of $4\times 4$, real, symmetric and positive definite, matrices, defines equivalence classes which are used for the invariant characterization of the 4-dimensional homogeneous spaces which possess an invariant basis.Comment: LaTeX2e, 23 pages, 2 Tables. To appear in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical & Genera

Estimating the star formation rate at 1 kpc scales in nearby galaxies.

Using combinations of H alpha, ultraviolet (UV), and infrared (IR) emission, we estimate the star formation rate (SFR) surface density, Sigma(SFR), at 1 kpc resolution for 30 disk galaxies that are targets of the IRAM HERACLES CO survey. We present a new physically motivated IR spectral-energy-distribution-based approach to account for possible contributions to 24 mu m emission not associated with recent star formation. Considering a variety of "reference" SFRs from the literature, we revisit the calibration of the 24 mu m term in hybrid (UV+IR or H alpha+IR) tracers. We show that the overall calibration of this term remains uncertain at the factor of two level because of the lack of wide-field, robust reference SFR estimates. Within this uncertainty, published calibrations represent a reasonable starting point for 1 kpc-wide areas of star-forming disk galaxies, but we re-derive and refine the calibration of the IR term in these tracers to match our resolution and approach to 24 mu m emission. We compare a large suite of Sigma(SFR) estimates and find that above Sigma(SFR) similar to 10(-3)M(circle dot) yr(-1) kpc(-2) the systematic differences among tracers are less than a factor of two across two orders of magnitude dynamic range. We caution that methodology and data both become serious issues below this level. We note from simple model considerations that when focusing on a part of a galaxy dominated by a single stellar population, the intrinsic uncertainty in H alpha- and FUV-based SFRs is similar to 0.3 and similar to 0.5 dex.Peer reviewe

Guselkumab for hidradenitis suppurativa:a phase II, open-label, mode-of-action study

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of available biologics for the treatment of hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is limited. Additional therapeutic options are needed. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the efficacy and mode of action of guselkumab [an anti-interleukin (IL)-23p19 monoclonal antibody] 200 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks for 16 weeks in patients with HS. METHODS: An open-label, multicentre, phase IIa trial in patients with moderate-to-severe HS was carried out (NCT04061395). The pharmacodynamic response in skin and blood was measured after 16 weeks of treatment. Clinical efficacy was assessed using the Hidradenitis Suppurativa Clinical Response (HiSCR), the International Hidradenitis Suppurativa Severity Score System (IHS4), and the abscess and inflammatory nodule (AN) count. The protocol was reviewed and approved by the local institutional review board (METC 2018/694), and the study was conducted in accordance with good clinical practice guidelines and applicable regulatory requirements. RESULTS: Thirteen of 20 patients (65%) achieved HiSCR with a statistically significant decrease in median IHS4 score (from 8.5 to 5.0; P = 0.002) and median AN count (from 6.5 to 4.0; P = 0.002). The overall patient-reported outcomes did not show a similar trend. One serious adverse event, likely to be unrelated to guselkumab treatment, was observed. In lesional skin, transcriptomic analysis revealed the upregulation of various genes associated with inflammation, including immunoglobulins, S100, matrix metalloproteinases, keratin, B-cell and complement genes, which decreased in clinical responders after treatment. Immunohistochemistry revealed a marked decrease in inflammatory markers in clinical responders at week 16. CONCLUSIONS: Sixty-five per cent of patients with moderate-to-severe HS achieved HiSCR after 16 weeks of treatment with guselkumab. We could not demonstrate a consistent correlation between gene and protein expression and clinical responses. The main limitations of this study were the small sample size and absence of a placebo arm. The large placebo-controlled phase IIb NOVA trial for guselkumab in patients with HS reported a lower HiSCR response of 45.0-50.8% in the treatment group and 38.7% in the placebo group. Guselkumab seems only to be of benefit in a subgroup of patients with HS, indicating that the IL-23/T helper 17 axis is not central to the pathophysiology of HS.</p

The antisaccade task as an index of sustained goal activation in working memory: modulation by nicotine

The antisaccade task provides a laboratory analogue of situations in which execution of the correct behavioural response requires the suppression of a more prepotent or habitual response. Errors (failures to inhibit a reflexive prosaccade towards a sudden onset target) are significantly increased in patients with damage to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and patients with schizophrenia. Recent models of antisaccade performance suggest that errors are more likely to occur when the intention to initiate an antisaccade is insufficiently activated within working memory. Nicotine has been shown to enhance specific working memory processes in healthy adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We explored the effect of nicotine on antisaccade performance in a large sample (N = 44) of young adult smokers. Minimally abstinent participants attended two test sessions and were asked to smoke one of their own cigarettes between baseline and retest during one session only. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Nicotine reduced antisaccade errors and correct antisaccade latencies if delivered before optimum performance levels are achieved, suggesting that nicotine supports the activation of intentions in working memory during task performance. The implications of this research for current theoretical accounts of antisaccade performance, and for interpreting the increased rate of antisaccade errors found in some psychiatric patient groups are discussed

A novel role for RIP1 kinase in mediating TNFα production

Receptor-interacting protein 1 (RIP1) is a Ser/Thr kinase with both kinase-dependent and kinase-independent roles in death receptor signaling. The kinase activity of RIP1 is required for necroptosis, a caspase-independent pathway of programmed cell death. In some cell types, the inhibition of caspases leads to autocrine production of TNFα, which then activates necroptosis. Here, we describe a novel role for RIP1 kinase in regulating TNFα production after caspase inhibition. Caspase inhibitors activate RIP1 kinase and another protein, EDD, to mediate JNK signaling, which stimulates Sp1-dependent transcription of TNFα. This pathway is independent of nuclear factor κB and also occurs after Smac mimetic/IAP antagonist treatment or the loss of TNF receptor-associated factor 2 (Traf2). These findings implicate cIAP1/2 and Traf2 as negative regulators of this RIP1 kinase-dependent TNFα production pathway and suggest a novel role for RIP1 kinase in mediating TNFα production under certain conditions

The Astropy Problem

The Astropy Project (http://astropy.org) is, in its own words, "a community effort to develop a single core package for Astronomy in Python and foster interoperability between Python astronomy packages." For five years this project has been managed, written, and operated as a grassroots, self-organized, almost entirely volunteer effort while the software is used by the majority of the astronomical community. Despite this, the project has always been and remains to this day effectively unfunded. Further, contributors receive little or no formal recognition for creating and supporting what is now critical software. This paper explores the problem in detail, outlines possible solutions to correct this, and presents a few suggestions on how to address the sustainability of general purpose astronomical software

Genetic Variation in OAS1 Is a Risk Factor for Initial Infection with West Nile Virus in Man

West Nile virus (WNV) is a re-emerging pathogen that can cause fatal encephalitis. In mice, susceptibility to WNV has been reported to result from a single point mutation in oas1b, which encodes 2′–5′ oligoadenylate synthetase 1b, a member of the type I interferon-regulated OAS gene family involved in viral RNA degradation. In man, the human ortholog of oas1b appears to be OAS1. The ‘A’ allele at SNP rs10774671 of OAS1 has previously been shown to alter splicing of OAS1 and to be associated with reduced OAS activity in PBMCs. Here we show that the frequency of this hypofunctional allele is increased in both symptomatic and asymptomatic WNV seroconverters (Caucasians from five US centers; total n = 501; OR = 1.6 [95% CI 1.2–2.0], P = 0.0002 in a recessive genetic model). We then directly tested the effect of this SNP on viral replication in a novel ex vivo model of WNV infection in primary human lymphoid tissue. Virus accumulation varied markedly among donors, and was highest for individuals homozygous for the ‘A’ allele (P<0.0001). Together, these data identify OAS1 SNP rs10774671 as a host genetic risk factor for initial infection with WNV in humans