Stepwise Model Fitting and Statistical Inference: Turning Noise into Signal Pollution

Statistical inference based on stepwise model selection is applied regularly in ecological, evolutionary, and behavioral research. In addition to fundamental shortcomings with regard to finding the “best” model, stepwise procedures are known to suffer from a multiple‐testing problem, yet the method is still widely used. As an illustration of this problem, we present results of a simulation study of artificial data sets of uncorrelated variables, with two to 10 predictor variables and one dependent variable. We then compared results from stepwise regression with a regression model in which all predictor variables were entered simultaneously. These analyses clearly demonstrate that significance tests based on stepwise procedures lead to greatly inflated Type I error rates (i.e., the probability of erroneously rejecting a true null hypothesis). By using a simple simulation design, our study amplifies previous warnings about using stepwise procedures, and we follow others in recommending that biologists refrain from applying these methods.Anthropolog

Teaching varies with task complexity in wild chimpanzees

Understanding social influences on how apes acquire tool behaviors can help us model the evolution of culture and technology in humans. Humans scaffold novice tool skills with diverse strategies, including the transfer of tools between individuals. Chimpanzees transfer tools, and this behavior meets criteria for teaching. However, it is unclear how task complexity relates to this form of helping. Here, we find differences between 2 wild chimpanzee populations in rate, probability, and types of tool transfer during termite gathering. Chimpanzees showed greater helping in the population where termite gathering is a more complex tool task. In wild chimpanzees, as in humans, regular and active provisioning of learning opportunities may be essential to the cultural transmission of complex skills.Cumulative culture is a transformative force in human evolution, but the social underpinnings of this capacity are debated. Identifying social influences on how chimpanzees acquire tool tasks of differing complexity may help illuminate the evolutionary origins of technology in our own lineage. Humans routinely transfer tools to novices to scaffold their skill development. While tool transfers occur in wild chimpanzees and fulfill criteria for teaching, it is unknown whether this form of helping varies between populations and across tasks. Applying standardized methods, we compared tool transfers during termite gathering by chimpanzees in the Goualougo Triangle, Republic of Congo, and in Gombe, Tanzania. At Goualougo, chimpanzees use multiple, different tool types sequentially, choose specific raw materials, and perform modifications that improve tool efficiency, which could make it challenging for novices to manufacture suitable tools. Termite gathering at Gombe involves a single tool type, fishing probes, which can be manufactured from various materials. Multiple measures indicated population differences in tool-transfer behavior. The rate of transfers and probability of transfer upon request were significantly higher at Goualougo, while resistance to transfers was significantly higher at Gombe. Active transfers of tools in which possessors moved to facilitate possession change upon request occurred only at Goualougo, where they were the most common transfer type. At Gombe, tool requests were typically refused. We suggest that these population differences in tool-transfer behavior may relate to task complexity and that active helping plays an enhanced role in the cultural transmission of complex technology in wild apes

Predicting the use of a COVID-19 contact tracing application: A study across two points of measurements

Contact tracing mobile applications (apps) were important in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Most previous studies predicting contact tracing app use were cross-sectional and not theory-based. This study aimed at contributing to a better understanding of app use intentions and app use by applying an extended version of the protection motivation theory across two measurement points while accounting for the development of the pandemic. A total of N = 1525 participants from Switzerland (Mage = 53.70, SD = 18.73; 47% female; n = 270 completed both assessments) reported on risk perceptions, response efficacy, self-efficacy, social norms, trust in government, trust in the healthcare system, active search of COVID-19-related information, intentions for and actual (self-reported) app use. Analyses included country-specific incidences and death toll. Increases in response-efficacy, self-efficacy, trust in government, and the active search of COVID-19-related information predicted increased app-use intentions. Increases in self-efficacy, intentions, and the active search of COVID-19-related information predicted increased self-reported app use. Risk perceptions, incidence, and death toll were unrelated to both outcomes. Across an aggravation of the pandemic situation, intentions for and app use were primarily related to response-efficacy, self-efficacy, trust in government, and the active search of COVID-19-related information

Malaria parasite detection increases during pregnancy in wild chimpanzees

Background: The diversity of malaria parasites (Plasmodium sp.) infecting chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and their close relatedness with those infecting humans is well documented. However, their biology is still largely unexplored and there is a need for baseline epidemiological data. Here, the effect of pregnancy, a well-known risk factor for malaria in humans, on the susceptibility of female chimpanzees to malaria infection was investigated. Methods: A series of 384 faecal samples collected during 40 pregnancies and 36 post-pregnancies from three habituated groups of wild chimpanzees in the Tai National Park, Cote d'Ivoire, were tested. Samples were tested for malaria parasites by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing. Data were analysed using a generalized linear mixed model. Results: Probability of malaria parasite detection significantly increased towards the end of pregnancy and decreased with the age of the mother. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that susceptibility to malaria parasite infection increases during pregnancy, and, as shown before, in younger individuals, which points towards similar dynamics of malaria parasite infection in human and chimpanzee populations and raises questions about the effects of such infections on pregnancy outcome and offspring morbidity/mortality

Generation of 4-vinylguaiacol through a novel high-affinity ferulic acid decarboxylase to obtain smoke flavours without carcinogenic contaminants

Traditional smoke flavours bear the risk of containing a multitude of contaminating carcinogenic side-products. Enzymatic decarboxylation of ferulic acid released from agro-industrial side-streams by ferulic acid esterases (FAE) enables the sustainable generation of pure, food grade 4-vinylguaiacol (4-VG), the impact compound of smoke flavour. The first basidiomycetous ferulic acid decarboxylase (FAD) was isolated from Schizophyllum commune (ScoFAD) and heterologously produced by Komagataella phaffii. It showed a molecular mass of 21 kDa, catalytic optima at pH 5.5 and 35 C, and a sequence identity of 63.6% to its next relative, a FAD from the ascomycete Cordyceps farinosa. The ScoFAD exhibited a high affinity to its only known substrate ferulic acid (FA) of 0.16 mmol L-1 and a turnover number of 750 s-1. The resulting catalytic efficiency kcat KM-1 of 4,779 L s-1 mmol-1 exceeded the next best known enzyme by more than a factor of 50. Immobilised on AminoLink Plus Agarose, ScoFAD maintained its activity for several days. The combination with FAEs and agro-industrial side-streams paves the way for a new generation of sustainable, clean, and safe smoke flavours

Do States Have Certification Requirements for Preparing General Education Teachers to Teach Students with Disabilities? Experience in the Northeast and Islands Region

With more than half of children with disabilities being educated in the general education classroom, and with federal education law requiring improved learning outcomes for these students, preparing general education teachers to work effectively with all students is critical.This report, prepared by REL Northeast Islands on teacher certification requirements in the nine Northeast and Islands Region jurisdictions, finds that eight of them require some coursework in teaching students with disabilities for initial licensure of general education teachers. It finds commonalities and differences both in how jurisdictions require general education teacher candidates to develop knowledge in special education and in the specific knowledge and skills required as part of teacher preparation

Wild mammals as economic goods and implications for their conservation

In social-ecological systems, human activities and animal distribution are interrelated. Any effort at studying wildlife abundance therefore requires the integration of detailed socioeconomic context into species distribution models. Wild mammals have always been an important resource for humankind, and concepts of economic goods provide an analytical framework to deduce relevant socioeconomic factors that shape wild mammal–human relationships and consequences for the spatial distribution patterns of wild mammals. We estimated the effects of the human population on wild mammals in a rural area in the Republic of Guinea, West Africa. We related large mammal survey data via statistical models to detailed socioeconomic information about the human population in the same area. We compared models, taking account of the human population in different ways, and found that wild mammal abundance was better explained by human factors other than human population density. Although human population density had a negative effect on wild mammals, the effect of market integration and food taboos were more important and not accounted for by human population density alone. Additionally, the analysis did not provide evidence of higher mammal abundance in classified forests, which one would assume if conservation interventions aimed at reducing hunting were implemented. Beyond doubt, the relationship between humans and wild mammals is highly complex and species- and context-specific. To understand mammal–human relationships in the wider context of social-ecological systems, an in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of a human population is needed to identify crucial links and driving mechanisms

On the relative importance of ecology and geographic isolation as drivers for differentiation of call types of red crossbillLoxia curvirostrain the Palearctic

Efforts to understand the process of speciation have been central to the research of biologists since the origin of evolutionary biology as a discipline. While it is well established that geographic isolation has played a key role in many speciation events, particularly in birds, there is ongoing debate about how frequent speciation is in the partial or complete absence of geographical isolation. In the red crossbill Loxia curvirostra, good arguments do exist for sympatric speciation processes. In this species, several classes of calls are clustered in distinct groups, so‐called ‘call types', which mate assortatively. Often, several call types can be found at a single site, breeding and feeding next to each other. It has been hypothesized that red crossbill call types evolved by specialising in extracting seeds from cones of different conifer species. Alternatively, call types might have evolved in temporal geographic isolation. Within Europe, little is known about the distribution of the various call types and preferences for distinct food resources. In this study, we analysed the temporal and spatial occurrence of red crossbill call types in the Palearctic, investigated potential reasons for call‐type composition at a site, and compared the occurrence of call types with the fructification of conifers. Call‐type composition changed with site and season but hardly with conifer species. With our data, we could localise range areas of twelve different call types, which cannot be explained by conifer species occurrence. Therefore, we suggest that call types evolved in parapatry in most of the northern Palearctic region, and, although contradictory results exist from Iberia, we argue that differentiation might be driven by the same drivers there as well. Additionally, we discuss the potential influence of anthropogenic changes of forest composition and distribution on call types, which offers a unique possibility for future studies