The international perinatal outcomes in the pandemic (iPOP) study: Protocol

Preterm birth is the leading cause of infant death worldwide, but the causes of preterm birth are largely unknown. During the early COVID-19 lockdowns, dramatic reductions in preterm birth were reported; however, these trends may be offset by increases in stillbirth rates. It is important to study these trends globally as the pandemic continues, and to understand the underlying cause(s). Lockdowns have dramatically impacted maternal workload, access to healthcare, hygiene practices, and air pollution - all of which could impact perinatal outcomes and might affect pregnant women differently in different regions of the world. In the international Perinatal Outcomes in the Pandemic (iPOP) Study, we will seize the unique opportunity offered by the COVID-19 pandemic to answer urgent questions about perinatal health. In the first two study phases, we will use population-based aggregate data and standardized outcome definitions to: 1) Determine rates of preterm birth, low birth weight, and stillbirth and describe changes during lockdowns; and assess if these changes are consistent globally, or differ by region and income setting, 2) Determine if the magnitude of changes in adverse perinatal outcomes during lockdown are modified by regional differences in COVID-19 infection rates, lockdown stringency, adherence to lockdown measures, air quality, or other social and economic markers, obtained from publicly available datasets. We will undertake an interrupted time series analysis covering births from January 2015 through July 2020. The iPOP Study will involve at least 121 researchers in 37 countries, including obstetricians, neonatologists, epidemiologists, public health researchers, environmental scientists, and policymakers. We will leverage the most disruptive and widespread natural experiment of our lifetime to make rapid discoveries about preterm birth. Whether the COVID-19 pandemic is worsening or unexpectedly improving perinatal outcomes, our research will provide critical new information to shape prenatal care strategies throughout (and well beyond) the pandemic

Cohort profile : early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database

Funding: The original EAVE project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (project number 13/34/14). EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council [MR/R008345/1] and supported by the Scottish Government. This work is supported by BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004]. BREATHE is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK.PostprintPeer reviewe

Impact of COVID-19 on accident and emergency attendances and emergency and planned hospital admissions in Scotland:an interrupted timeseries analysis

Funding: This analysis is part of the Early Assessment of COVID-19 epidemiology and Vaccine/anti-viral Effectiveness (EAVE II) study. EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE -The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004], which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through the Scottish Government DGHealth and Social Care. HRS is supported by the Medical Research Council [MR/R008345/1].Objectives: Following the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, health systems and the populations who use them have faced unprecedented challenges. We aimed to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the uptake of hospital-based care at a national level. Design: The study period (weeks ending 05 January to 28 June 2020) encompassed the pandemic announcement by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the initiation of the UK lockdown. We undertook an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the impact of these events on hospital services at a national level and across demographics, clinical specialties and NHS Health Boards. Setting: Scotland, UK. Participants: Patients receiving hospital care from NHS Scotland.Main outcome measures: A&E attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions measured using the relative change of weekly counts in 2020 to the averaged counts for equivalent weeks in 2018 and 2019. Results: Before the pandemic announcement, the uptake of hospital care was largely consistent with historical levels. This was followed by sharp drops in all outcomes until UK lockdown, where activity began to steadily increase. This time-period saw an average reduction of -40.7% (95% CI: -47.7 to -33.7) in A&E attendances, -25.8% (95% CI: -31.1 to -20.4) in emergency hospital admissions and -60.9% (95% CI: -66.1 to -55.7) in planned hospital admissions, in comparison to the 2018-2019 averages. All subgroup trends were broadly consistent within outcomes, but with notable variations across age groups, specialties and geography. Conclusions: COVID-19 has had a profoundly disruptive impact on hospital-based care across NHS Scotland. This has likely led to an adverse effect on non-COVID-19 related illnesses, increasing the possibility of potentially avoidable morbidity and mortality. Further research is required to elucidate these impacts.PostprintPeer reviewe

Impact on emergency and elective hospital-based care in Scotland over the first 12 months of the pandemic: interrupted time-series analysis of national lockdowns

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This analysis is part of the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) study. EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE – The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through the Scottish Government DG Health and Social Care. SAS and AS are also supported by the COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing National Core Study, funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_PC_20030). SVK acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2) and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). JM is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West).Objectives COVID-19 has resulted in the greatest disruption to National Health Service (NHS) care in its over 70-year history. Building on our previous work, we assessed the ongoing impact of pandemic-related disruption on provision of emergency and elective hospital-based care across Scotland over the first year of the pandemic. Design We undertook interrupted time-series analyses to evaluate the impact of ongoing pandemic-related disruption on hospital NHS care provision at national level and across demographics and clinical specialties spanning the period 29 March 2020?28 March 2021. Setting Scotland, UK. Participants Patients receiving hospital care from NHS Scotland. Main outcome measures We used the percentage change of accident and emergency attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions during the pandemic compared to the average admission rate for equivalent weeks in 2018-2019. Results As restrictions were gradually lifted in Scotland after the first lockdown, hospital-based admissions increased approaching pre-pandemic levels. Subsequent tightening of restrictions in September 2020 were associated with a change in slope of relative weekly admissions rate: -1.98% (-2.38, -1.58) in accident and emergency attendance, -1.36% (-1.68, -1.04) in emergency admissions and -2.31% (-2.95, -1.66) in planned admissions. A similar pattern was seen across sex, socioeconomic status and most age groups, except children (0-14 years) where accident and emergency attendance, and emergency admissions were persistently low over the study period. Conclusions We found substantial disruption to urgent and planned inpatient healthcare provision in hospitals across NHS Scotland. There is the need for urgent policy responses to address continuing unmet health needs and to ensure resilience in the context of future pandemics.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing national lockdowns have dramatically changed the healthcare landscape. The pandemic’s impact on people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains poorly understood. We hypothesised that the UK-wide lockdown restrictions were associated with reductions in severe COPD exacerbations. We provide the first national level analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown on severe COPD exacerbations resulting in emergency hospital admissions and/or leading to death as well as those recorded in primary care or emergency departments

COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million people in Scotland (EAVE II):a prospective cohort study

EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE—The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004], which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. UA, CM, AA-L, and AFF acknowledge funding from Chief Scientist Office Rapid Research in COVID-19 programme (COV/SAN/20/06) and Health Data Research UK (measuring and understanding multimorbidity using routine data in the UK—HDR-9006; CFC0110). SVK acknowledges funding from a NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Government's Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). SJS is funded by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Career Development Fellowship (209560/Z/17/Z).Background  The UK COVID-19 vaccination programme has prioritised vaccination of those at the highest risk of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation. The programme was rolled out in Scotland during winter 2020–21, when SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were at their highest since the pandemic started, despite social distancing measures being in place. We aimed to estimate the frequency of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death in people who received at least one vaccine dose and characterise these individuals. Methods  We conducted a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) national surveillance platform, which contained linked vaccination, primary care, RT-PCR testing, hospitalisation, and mortality records for 5·4 million people (around 99% of the population) in Scotland. Individuals were followed up from receiving their first dose of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines until admission to hospital for COVID-19, death, or the end of the study period on April 18, 2021. We used a time-dependent Poisson regression model to estimate rate ratios (RRs) for demographic and clinical factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation or death 14 days or more after the first vaccine dose, stratified by vaccine type. Findings Between Dec 8, 2020, and April 18, 2021, 2 572 008 individuals received their first dose of vaccine—841 090 (32·7%) received BNT162b2 and 1 730 918 (67·3%) received ChAdOx1. 1196 (<0·1%) individuals were admitted to hospital or died due to COVID-19 illness (883 hospitalised, of whom 228 died, and 313 who died due to COVID-19 without hospitalisation) 14 days or more after their first vaccine dose. These severe COVID-19 outcomes were associated with older age (≥80 years vs 18–64 years adjusted RR 4·75, 95% CI 3·85–5·87), comorbidities (five or more risk groups vs less than five risk groups 4·24, 3·34–5·39), hospitalisation in the previous 4 weeks (3·00, 2·47–3·65), high-risk occupations (ten or more previous COVID-19 tests vs less than ten previous COVID-19 tests 2·14, 1·62–2·81), care home residence (1·63, 1·32–2·02), socioeconomic deprivation (most deprived quintile vs least deprived quintile 1·57, 1·30–1·90), being male (1·27, 1·13–1·43), and being an ex-smoker (ex-smoker vs non-smoker 1·18, 1·01–1·38). A history of COVID-19 before vaccination was protective (0·40, 0·29–0·54). Interpretation COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths were uncommon 14 days or more after the first vaccine dose in this national analysis in the context of a high background incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and with extensive social distancing measures in place. Sociodemographic and clinical features known to increase the risk of severe disease in unvaccinated populations were also associated with severe outcomes in people receiving their first dose of vaccine and could help inform case management and future vaccine policy formulation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Pathway level subtyping identifies a slow-cycling biological phenotype associated with poor clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer

Molecular stratification using gene-level transcriptional data has identified subtypes with distinctive genotypic and phenotypic traits, as exemplified by the consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in colorectal cancer (CRC). Here, rather than gene-level data, we make use of gene ontology and biological activation state information for initial molecular class discovery. In doing so, we defined three pathway-derived subtypes (PDS) in CRC: PDS1 tumors, which are canonical/LGR5+ stem-rich, highly proliferative and display good prognosis; PDS2 tumors, which are regenerative/ANXA1+ stem-rich, with elevated stromal and immune tumor microenvironmental lineages; and PDS3 tumors, which represent a previously overlooked slow-cycling subset of tumors within CMS2 with reduced stem populations and increased differentiated lineages, particularly enterocytes and enteroendocrine cells, yet display the worst prognosis in locally advanced disease. These PDS3 phenotypic traits are evident across numerous bulk and single-cell datasets, and demark a series of subtle biological states that are currently under-represented in pre-clinical models and are not identified using existing subtyping classifiers

Nitrogen fixation and transfer in open ocean diatom–cyanobacterial symbioses

Many diatoms that inhabit low-nutrient waters of the open ocean live in close association with cyanobacteria. Some of these associations are believed to be mutualistic, where N2-fixing cyanobacterial symbionts provide N for the diatoms. Rates of N2 fixation by symbiotic cyanobacteria and the N transfer to their diatom partners were measured using a high-resolution nanometer scale secondary ion mass spectrometry approach in natural populations. Cell-specific rates of N2 fixation (1.15–71.5 fmol N per cell h−1) were similar amongst the symbioses and rapid transfer (within 30 min) of fixed N was also measured. Similar growth rates for the diatoms and their symbionts were determined and the symbiotic growth rates were higher than those estimated for free-living cells. The N2 fixation rates estimated for Richelia and Calothrix symbionts were 171–420 times higher when the cells were symbiotic compared with the rates estimated for the cells living freely. When combined, the latter two results suggest that the diatom partners influence the growth and metabolism of their cyanobacterial symbionts. We estimated that Richelia fix 81–744% more N than needed for their own growth and up to 97.3% of the fixed N is transferred to the diatom partners. This study provides new information on the mechanisms controlling N input into the open ocean by symbiotic microorganisms, which are widespread and important for oceanic primary production. Further, this is the first demonstration of N transfer from an N2 fixer to a unicellular partner. These symbioses are important models for molecular regulation and nutrient exchange in symbiotic systems

Neurological manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalised children and adolescents in the UK: a prospective national cohort study

Background: The spectrum of neurological and psychiatric complications associated with paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection is poorly understood. We aimed to analyse the range and prevalence of these complications in hospitalised children and adolescents. Methods: We did a prospective national cohort study in the UK using an online network of secure rapid-response notification portals established by the CoroNerve study group. Paediatric neurologists were invited to notify any children and adolescents (age <18 years) admitted to hospital with neurological or psychiatric disorders in whom they considered SARS-CoV-2 infection to be relevant to the presentation. Patients were excluded if they did not have a neurological consultation or neurological investigations or both, or did not meet the definition for confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (a positive PCR of respiratory or spinal fluid samples, serology for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, or both), or the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health criteria for paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS). Individuals were classified as having either a primary neurological disorder associated with COVID-19 (COVID-19 neurology group) or PIMS-TS with neurological features (PIMS-TS neurology group). The denominator of all hospitalised children and adolescents with COVID-19 was collated from National Health Service England data. Findings: Between April 2, 2020, and Feb 1, 2021, 52 cases were identified; in England, there were 51 cases among 1334 children and adolescents hospitalised with COVID-19, giving an estimated prevalence of 3·8 (95% CI 2·9–5·0) cases per 100 paediatric patients. 22 (42%) patients were female and 30 (58%) were male; the median age was 9 years (range 1–17). 36 (69%) patients were Black or Asian, 16 (31%) were White. 27 (52%) of 52 patients were classified into the COVID-19 neurology group and 25 (48%) were classified into the PIMS-TS neurology group. In the COVID-19 neurology group, diagnoses included status epilepticus (n=7), encephalitis (n=5), Guillain-Barré syndrome (n=5), acute demyelinating syndrome (n=3), chorea (n=2), psychosis (n=2), isolated encephalopathy (n=2), and transient ischaemic attack (n=1). The PIMS-TS neurology group more often had multiple features, which included encephalopathy (n=22 [88%]), peripheral nervous system involvement (n=10 [40%]), behavioural change (n=9 [36%]), and hallucinations at presentation (n=6 [24%]). Recognised neuroimmune disorders were more common in the COVID-19 neurology group than in the PIMS-TS neurology group (13 [48%] of 27 patients vs 1 [<1%] of 25 patients, p=0·0003). Compared with the COVID-19 neurology group, more patients in the PIMS-TS neurology group were admitted to intensive care (20 [80%] of 25 patients vs six [22%] of 27 patients, p=0·0001) and received immunomodulatory treatment (22 [88%] patients vs 12 [44%] patients, p=0·045). 17 (33%) patients (10 [37%] in the COVID-19 neurology group and 7 [28%] in the PIMS-TS neurology group) were discharged with disability; one (2%) died (who had stroke, in the PIMS-TS neurology group). Interpretation: This study identified key differences between those with a primary neurological disorder versus those with PIMS-TS. Compared with patients with a primary neurological disorder, more patients with PIMS-TS needed intensive care, but outcomes were similar overall. Further studies should investigate underlying mechanisms for neurological involvement in COVID-19 and the longer-term outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research