Species distribution models as a useful tool in conservation programs: the case of the Northern Bald Ibis

The Northern Bald Ibis (Geronticus eremita) is one of the most endangered species on the planet. Over the last century, the species had suffered an extreme decline in its population size, and is now considered to be critically endangered. Nowadays, the original distribution range of the species is restricted to the Agadir region in Morocco. In Europe the species is only present in Spain and Austria, and this is due to two different conservation projects with introduced animals born and raised in captivity. The aim of this project is to characterize those past and present areas used by the Northern Bald Ibis in their natural distribution in Morocco, identifying the most favorable areas for the assessment of the species in Morocco and also for making it possible to reintroduce this species to Europe. We used species distribution models with a presence/absence database obtained from bibliography and a set of environmental variables. Spatial variables were combined obtaining a trend surface variable, which is a purely spatial descriptor of the cohesion trend in the distribution of the species regarding its history and population dynamics. Another model was built using only environmental variables to identify those areas which are favorable for the species in relation to the environment, without the effects of the population's cohesion trend. Obtained models classified the areas into 'favorable', 'unfavorable' or 'uncertain'. In the case of Andalusia, introduced individuals have moved to favorable places in the North of Morocco, where the species was not present in the past. Moreover, for the first time there have been new records of this species on the occidental coast of Morocco, where the models also predict a maximum in the favorability. This methodology could be used to detect the best places to introduce new individuals or to create protected areas.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

NUEVO ATLAS DE AVES DE ESPAÑA DURANTE LA ÉPOCA REPRODUCTORA (2014-2018): USO DE LA LÓGICA DIFUSA PARA LA ELABORACIÓN DE LOS MAPAS DE DISTRIBUCIÓN

El conocimiento de la avifauna reproductora en España dio un paso importante en 1997, momento en el que se publicó el primer atlas de distribución de ámbito nacional. La comparación entre los dos atlas permitió evaluar los cambios en la distribución y en las tendencias poblacionales de algunas especies, aunque de forma limitada por las diferencias en sus diseños. La Sociedad Española de Ornitología desarrolla en la actualidad el proyecto de III Atlas de Aves de España en época reproductora (2014-2018), el cual comprende 5 temporadas y ha utilizado como unidad de muestreo la misma red de cuadrículas UTM de 10x10 km empleadas en el segundo atlas. Estos modelos tratan de describir los requerimientos ecológicos de las especies y se han desarrollado mucho en las últimas dos décadas, de forma que tienen cada vez más relevancia en estudios de biogeografía, ecología, evolución, biología de la conservación y cambio climático. Nuestro equipo modelará la distribución de las diferentes especies mediante la asociación de las presencias detectadas en los trabajos del nuevo atlas y un conjunto de variables ambientales, de modo que podamos simular procesos ecológicos con los que poder predecir respuestas biogeográficas. La lógica difusa permite expresar estas asociaciones en término del grado (entre 0 y 1) en que las condiciones ambientales favorecen la reproducción de cada especie en cada cuadrícula. Esto puede dar una idea de la distribución de la especie más cercana a la realidad que el mero hecho de haberla o no detectado en un muestreo.El nuevo atlas incluirá 448 especies y se realizarán modelos para la mayoría de ellas. En la presentación se detallarán los métodos de modelación utilizados y se mostrarán los primeros mapas de favorabilidad ambiental obtenidos.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Climate change and distribution shift: the case of the Long-legged Buzzard at the range boundary

The distribution of many organisms is shifting in latitude and elevation in response to recent climate warming. In the Strait of Gibraltar, at the shortest distance between Africa and Europe, an expansion in species’ range constitutes, in the case of African species, a major step in biogeographical terms. Recently the Iberian Peninsula has been colonized by different African birds, such as the White-rumped Swift, Little Swift, Common Bulbul and Long-legged Buzzard. In the latter case, the species was first confirmed breeding in continental Europe in 2009, and the increasing number of records and recent studies based on distribution models suggest that it is finding new favorable areas to breed in southern Spain. To determine if the Long-legged Buzzard is shifting or increasing its range in latitude, we have modelled its distribution using the favourability function, a set of environmental variables and the IOMS features of the forecasted effect of climate change of the species favourability using fuzzy logic operations. Our results indicate that there will be fewer favorable areas for the species in Morocco, mostly confined in the Atlantic coast, regardless of the scenario we considered. Thus, the distribution area of the Long-legged Buzzard could be suffering a latitudinal movement towards the north, instead of an expansion of its northern distribution edge.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Wintering areas on the move in face of warmer winters

The recent climate change has an influence on the migration phenology of birds. With increasingly warmer winters, an increasing number of species are shortening their migration distance, and especially interesting are the cases of Trans-Sahara migrants, such as the Eurasian Reed Warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus), that choose the Iberian Peninsula as a new wintering area. This species is normally present in Spain from February (when it arrives to breed) to November (when autumn migration comes to an end), but the number of wintering records has increased in the last few decades. The aims of the present study are: to compile wintering records of the species in the Iberian Peninsula, to characterize those areas where the environmental conditions are favourable for the species in this period, when the species is supposed to be in Africa (south of Sahara desert) and to study the origin of wintering birds and their preferred wintering areas. Biogeographical favourability models were built and results show that the most favourable areas are coastal zones with mild temperatures, as it seems that minimum temperature is the environmental limitation for the presence of the species. The detailed analysis of the Eurasian Reed Warbler adjustments on migration, in the context of the current climate change, may facilitate to delve into the mechanisms affecting this phenomenon, and the extrapolation of the proposed methodology to other Trans-Sahara migrants with similar phenology shifts.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Modelos de lógica difusa en el estudio de interacciones bióticas y su efecto en la distribución parapátrica de las víboras de la Península Ibérica

Las condiciones ambientales tienen una fuerte influencia en el resultado de las interacciones interespecíficas que condicionan la distribución de las especies a lo largo de un territorio. En ausencia de barreras geográficas, la parapatría de especies ecológicamente similares podría explicarse por tres situaciones biogeográficas teniendo en cuenta la competencia y el ambiente en el que interaccionan: (1) la coexistencia simpátrica, cuando la alta abundancia de recursos en un área claramente favorable minimiza los efectos de la competencia, (2) la segregación autoecológica, cuando la presión de un ambiente desfavorable tiene más peso que las interacciones biológicas, y (3) la segregación sinecológica, cuando en áreas de favorabilidad intermedia una especie desplaza por exclusión competitiva a la otra. El objetivo de este estudio es explicar la distribución parapátrica de las tres especies del género Vipera en la Península Ibérica.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

El cambio del clima y la barrera biogeográfica del estrecho de Gibraltar para las aves africanas

El reciente cambio del clima está afectando a la distribución de las especies, siendo habitual que se provoquen desplazamientos latitudinales. En el estrecho de Gibraltar, frontera biogeográica que separa la biota africana de la europea y, a su vez, puente de migración para muchas especies, estos cambios son de especial importancia. En esta investigación se han recopilado los registros homologados en España de varias especies de rapaces típicamente africanas que comienzan a observarse en Europa, con la intención de estudiar el posible proceso de colonización del continente Europeo. Algunos de los patrones detectados son su entrada a Europa a través del estrecho de Gibraltar, y la mayor frecuencia de ejemplares durante los periodos pre y post-reproductores. Se ha utilizado una de estas especies, el busardo moro, para obtener modelos de favorabilidad ambiental que demuestren la utilidad de dichos modelos en el estudio de las colonizaciones. Los resultados ponen de maniiesto que el clima es el principal factor que explica la distribución de esta especie, y también que la península ibérica cuenta con más áreas favorables para la especie que las que actualmente ocupa. De continuar el aumento de la temperaturas, cabe esperar que el busardo moro amplíe su actual área de distribución en el sur de la península ibérica, y también que un mayor número de especies africanas colonice el continente europeo.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Anticipating the locations in Europe of high-risk areas for West Nile virus outbreaks in 2021

West Nile virus infections in humans are continuously increasing, and the virus has spread considerably in Europe over the past decade. The incidence of the disease was unusually high between 2018 and 2020. The resulting model identifies the West Nile virus outbreak-prone areas during 2021, even in regions where the virus has not yet been discovered. It is remarkable that in Central Europe, new favourable areas are emerging, where early actions could lessen the impact of the disease

Forecasting distributions and competitive interactions for european vipers

European vipers (Vipera) show parapatric distributions as result of distinct evolutionary trajectories and specific ecological requirements. Competitive interactions among species at range margins play an important role in the sustainment of distributional patterns. Taking into account the competition between species in a heterogeneous climate along their distribution areas, three biogeographical cases are predicted to happen: 1) autoecological segregation, when a low favorable climate is stronger than biological interactions; 2) sympatric coexistence, when an optimal climate for both species provides high abundance of resources, minimizing the effect of competitive interactions; and 3) sinecological segregation, when in sub-optimal areas, one species, better adapted to this conditions, could exclude the other by competition. Fuzzy logic distribution models provide a useful framework to analyze and identify these interactions. Using a presence/absence matrix for five western vipers (V. aspis, V. berus, V. lataste and V. seoanei) and a set of climate variables at ~10x10 km resolution, we studied species favorability for current and future climate scenarios. Regions of overlap between species pairs were analyzed to identify the three biogeographical cases in both periods of time. Results emphasize the generalist character of V. aspis, with a predicted range largest than the currently observed, and the strong competitive character of V. berus, V. latastei and V. seoanei at range margins, which might be limiting the expansion of the former species. Despite a high uncertainty in our predictions, future favorable areas are restricted to coastal and mountain regions, which is translated into important changes in species interactions.Beca FPU Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Measuring the extent of the encroaching into Europe of African species due to climate change

Comunicación presentada a un CongresoThe recent modification of species distributions in response to a warmer climate constitutes a major and generalized biogeographic change. One of the main drivers of the change in species distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favorability. The various approaches to the species distribution modelling assume an equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, and this hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we have studied the response to climate change of 10 African bird species in the context of the Strait of Gibraltar, where a short-distance expansion of the species’ range towards the north means a major step in biogeographical terms, since the Strait is an important barrier separating North African and European fauna. All studied species have already been observed during the last decade in Spain, in some cases sporadically, in others regularly and in some others, it has even been possible to confirm the reproduction of the species in Europe; some examples of the latter case are the Long-legged Buzzard, the Little Swift and the Common Bulbul. We have also identified those areas of Southern Europe that are climatically favorable for the breeding of the set of selected African species for the period 2041-2060, which shows that southern Spain is a potential focal point for the colonization of Europe by African species. If our climate continues to warm, further arrivals of potential colonist African bird species to southern Europe are to be expected.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

What do you do or with whom? Understanding happiness with the tourism experience: an AI approach applied to Instagram

[EN] More and more tourists are sharing their experiences on their social media through a combination of photos, texts, and hashtags. But there is a scarcity of studies in literature on analyzing tourists’ visual content in relation to tourism destinations. To address this gap in literature, this study explores how and with whom users express the greatest happiness in holiday destinations, and how they share it with their community, through a mixed methods approach composed of analysis of images, text, and metadata. This approach allows us to address the objective of this research, which is the prediction of the happiness felt by tourists during their experience, using innovative techniques that allow the independent variables to be obtained. To predict tourist satisfaction, two sources of data, photos and texts, are analyzed: a novel approach and little explored in the literature, but necessary due to the interaction of both variables. This study applies various artificial intelligence analyses on visual content (deep learning), and textual and metadata content (machine learning) to 39,235 Instagram posts shared by tourists since the emergence of Instagram thirteen years ago, at a cultural and gastronomic tourist destination. The findings of the visual content analysis showed that socialization and company, that is, traveling and interacting with people, was a key aspect of a positive tourism experience. In addition, the gender of the people with whom they traveled, and the tourist’s narcissism were also key aspects in the generation and expression of positive emotions. Regarding the analysis of the textual content, the results showed that when tourists enjoyed a positive experience, they became more involved in the generation of content, that is, they showed their happiness through positive words.S