Size differences of Arctic marine protists between two climate periods - using the paleoecological record to assess the importance of within-species trait variation

Mean body size decreases with increasing temperature in a variety of organisms. This size–temperature relationship has generally been tested through space but rarely through time. We analyzed the sedimentary archive of dinoflagellate cysts in a sediment record taken from the West Greenland shelf and show that mean cell size decreased at both intra‐ and interspecific scales in a period of relatively warm temperatures, compared with a period of relatively cold temperatures. We further show that intraspecific changes accounted for more than 70% of the change in community mean size, whereas shifts in species composition only accounted for about 30% of the observed change. Literature values on size ranges and midpoints for individual taxa were in several cases not representative for the measured sizes, although changes in community mean size, calculated from literature values, did capture the direction of change. While the results show that intraspecific variation is necessary to accurately estimate the magnitude of change in protist community mean size, it may be possible to investigate general patterns, that is relative size differences, using interspecific‐level estimates

Barents Sea plankton production and controlling factors in a fluctuating climate

The Barents Sea and its marine ecosystem is exposed to many different processes related to the seasonal light variability, formation and melting of sea-ice, wind-induced mixing, and exchange of heat and nutrients with neighbouring ocean regions. A global model for the RCP4.5 scenario was downscaled, evaluated, and combined with a biophysical model to study how future variability and trends in temperature, sea-ice concentration, light, and wind-induced mixing potentially affect the lower trophic levels in the Barents Sea marine ecosystem. During the integration period (2010–2070), only a modest change in climate variables and biological production was found, compared to the inter-annual and decadal variability. The most prominent change was projected for the mid-2040s with a sudden decrease in biological production, largely controlled by covarying changes in heat inflow, wind, and sea-ice extent. The northernmost parts exhibited increased access to light during the productive season due to decreased sea-ice extent, leading to increased primary and secondary production in periods of low sea-ice concentrations. In the southern parts, variable access to nutrients as a function of wind-induced mixing and mixed layer depth were found to be the most dominating factors controlling variability in primary and secondary production.publishedVersio

Key physical processes and their model representation for projecting climate impacts on subarctic Atlantic net primary production: A synthesis

Oceanic net primary production forms the foundation of marine ecosystems. Understanding the impact of climate change on primary production is therefore critical and we rely on Earth System Models to project future changes. Stemming from their use of different physical dynamics and biogeochemical processes, these models yield a large spread in long-term projections of change on both the global and regional scale. Here we review the key physical processes and biogeochemical parameterizations that influence the estimation of primary production in Earth System Models and synthesize the available projections of productivity in the subarctic regions of the North Atlantic. The key processes and modelling issues we focus on are mixed layer depth dynamics, model resolution and the complexity and parameterization of biogeochemistry. From the model mean of five CMIP6 models, we found a large increase in PP in areas where the sea ice retreats throughout the 21st century. Stronger stratification and declining MLD in the Nordic Seas, caused by sea ice loss and regional freshening, reduce the vertical flux of nutrients into the photic zone. Following the synthesis of the primary production among the CMIP6 models, we recommend a number of measures: constraining model hindcasts through the assimilation of high-quality long-term observational records to improve physical and biogeochemical parameterizations in models, developing better parameterizations for the sub-grid scale processes, enhancing the model resolution, downscaling and multi-model comparison exercises for improved regional projections of primary production.publishedVersio

Quantifying diets for small pelagic fish: effects of weight versus occurrence methods and sampling effort

In the Norwegian Sea, assessment of diet composition relies on annual cruise activity combined with visual identification and weight determination of prey from fish stomachs. This weight-based method is labour intensive, and suggestions to reduce cost include moving from the weight-based to the occurrence-based method and/or reducing sampling effort. Studies have suggested that the occurrence-based method may be more robust while providing similar results as the weight-based method. Here we re-analyse data from >14.000 stomachs for herring, mackerel, and blue whiting. We compare diet composition estimates and quantify the uncertainty using both methods. We also quantify the impact of reducing sampling effort (number of trawl stations and fish per station) on the diet uncertainties. Our results confirm that occurrence-based estimates are more precise than those based on weight. In addition, they are better at capturing year-to-year fluctuations. The occurrence-based method provides similar results to the weight-based method. Differences between methods arise primarily from disparities in the mean weight of prey in stomachs. Decreasing the number of stations sampled leads to increased uncertainty, while reducing the sampling effort from 10 to 5 fish per station has little impact on uncertainty estimates. These results provide quantified insights to guide future diet monitoring programmes.publishedVersio

Status for miljøet i norske havområder - Rapport fra Overvåkingsgruppen 2023

I denne rapporten gir Overvåkingsgruppen, for første gang, en felles vurdering av miljøtilstanden i Barentshavet og havområdene utenfor Lofoten, Norskehavet og Nordsjøen med Skagerrak. Det er også første rapport som bruker resultater fra det nylig utviklede fagsystemet for vurdering av økologisk tilstand. I denne rapporten dekkes to hovedtemaer: (1) Dominerende trekk i status og utvikling i økosystemet i alle tre havområdene, basert på vurderingene av økologisk tilstand, Overvåkingsgruppens rapport om forurensning fra 2022, indikatorer fra Overvåkingsgruppen som ikke er dekket under vurdering av økologisk tilstand, samt rapporter og annen relevant informasjon fra forskning, og (2) en vurdering av karbonbinding i marint plankton, marine vegetasjonstyper og marine sedimenter. I tillegg er det gitt en oppsummering for endringer i ytre påvirkning, vurdering av kunnskapsbehov samt en vurdering av indikatorverdier i forhold til referanseverdier og tiltaksgrenser. Vurderingen av dominerende trekk i utvikling og tilstand av miljøet som er gitt i kapittel 2, utgjør Overvåkingsgruppens bidrag til Faglig forums samlerapport om det faglige grunnlaget for revisjon og oppdatering av de helhetlige forvaltningsplanene for norske havområder.Status for miljøet i norske havområder - Rapport fra Overvåkingsgruppen 2023publishedVersio