Impacts of global change on biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea : and End-to-End modelling approach

Sous les effets combinés de la surexploitation des ressources marines et du changement climatique la mer Méditerranée se transforme progressivement en un point chaud du changement global. En dépit d’un grand nombre de modèles développés localement ou régionalement en mer Méditerranée, aucun ne s’est encore attelé aux modifications d'assemblages d’espèces à l’échelle du bassin avec une modélisation intégrée des écosystèmes de la physique jusqu’aux prédateurs et représentant explicitement les dimensions à la fois multi-spécifique, spatiale, et trophique. Ces travaux de thèse présentent donc un triple enjeu : (i) mettre en œuvre une telle modélisation de la richesse spécifique en Méditerranée basée sur les traits de vie et représentant l'intégralité du cycle de vie d’espèces en interaction ; (ii) projeter les conséquences des changements physiques et biogéochimiques induits par le changement climatique sur la distribution spatiale des espèces et sur la structure et le fonctionnement trophique de l'écosystème méditerranéen ; (iii) explorer des scénarios de gestion des pêches visant à reconstituer certains stocks d'intérêts commerciaux dans un contexte de changement climatique. Pour répondre à ces enjeux, un modèle end-to-end, OSMOSE-MED, s’appuyant sur le couplage d’un modèle de hauts niveaux trophiques OSMOSE à des modèles de physique et de biogéochimie NEMOMED12 et ECO3M-S, a été développé. Avec cent espèces modélisées, représentant près de 95 % des captures effectuées en Méditerranée, il s’agit du premier modèle trophique de ce type intégrant une aussi grande richesse spécifique, sur une échelle spatiale aussi vaste (la mer Méditerranée dans son ensemble) et à fine résolution (20x20 km²). Selon le scénario d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre RCP8.5, les projections réalisées avec le modèle OSMOSE-MED mettent en évidence une augmentation globale de la biomasse et des captures, respectivement de 22% et 7% d'ici la fin du siècle. Ces augmentations masquent néanmoins de grandes disparités géographiques. Le bassin oriental se démarque par une augmentation globale de la biomasse associée aux espèces exotiques. Au regard des captures, le modèle prévoit des augmentations dans le bassin oriental et une diminution importante dans la partie occidentale. Un changement de la composition spécifique des captures pourrait apparaître au cours du 21ème siècle avec l'apparition d'espèces gagnantes (e.g. anchois) et perdantes (e.g. merlu). Les espèces gagnantes seraient principalement les espèces de petits pélagiques, thermophiles et/ou exotiques, de plus petites tailles et de plus bas niveaux trophiques tandis que les espèces perdantes seraient généralement les grands démersaux et pélagiques, pouvant pâtir d'un décalage spatial avec leurs proies potentielles à la suite d'une contraction ou d'un déplacement de leur aire de répartition géographique. Dans ce contexte, les projections de scénarios de gestion des pêches mettent en évidence les avantages d'une plus grande sélectivité ou d'une réduction de la mortalité par pêche pour reconstituer certains stocks d'intérêts commerciaux, en particulier parmi les organismes appartenant au groupe des démersaux, benthiques et grands pélagiques. Une réduction de la mortalité par pêche pourrait en outre inverser les tendances projetées à la baisse de la biomasse et des captures totales en Méditerrannée occidentale.Under the combined effects of overexploitation of marine resources and climate change the Mediterranean Sea is gradually becoming a hotspot of global change. Despite a large number of models developed locally or regionally in the Mediterranean Sea, no previous studies have addressed changes in species assemblages at the basin scale with an integrated ecosystem modelling from physics to predators and explicitly representing the multi-species, spatial, and trophic dimensions. This thesis work presents a threefold challenge: (i) implementing such a model of the species richness in the Mediterranean Sea based on life history traits and representing the entire life cycle of interacting species; (ii) projecting the consequences of physical and biogeochemical changes induced by climate change on the spatial distribution of species and on the structure and trophic functioning of the Mediterranean ecosystem; (iii) exploring fisheries management scenarios aiming at rebuilding some stocks of commercial interest in a climate change context. To address these challenges, an end-to-end model, OSMOSE-MED, based on the coupling of a high trophic level OSMOSE model with NEMOMED12 and ECO3M-S physical and biogeochemical models, has been developed. With 100 modelled species, representing nearly 95% of the catches made in the Mediterranean Sea, it is the first trophic model of this type to integrate such a large diversity of species, on such a large spatial scale (the Mediterranean Sea as a whole) and at fine resolution (20x20 km²). According to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, projections made with the OSMOSE-MED model show an overall increase in biomass and catches of 22% and 7% respectively by the end of the century. However, these increases mask large geographical disparities. The eastern basin is characterized by an overall increase in biomass associated with exotic species. With regard to catches, the model projects increase in the eastern basin and a significant decrease in the western part. A change in the species composition of catches could appear during the 21st century with winner (e.g. anchovy) and loser (e.g. hake) species. Winner species would mainly belong to the small pelagics group, are thermophilic and/or exotic, of smaller sizes and of low trophic level while loser species are generally large-sized, some of them of great commercial interest, and could suffer from a spatial mismatch with potential prey subsequent to a contraction or shift of their geographic range. Fisheries management scenario projections highlight the benefits of greater selectivity or reduced fishing mortality for the recovery of certain stocks of commercial interest, particularly among organisms belonging to the demersal, benthic and large pelagic groups. A reduction in fishing mortality could also reverse the projected decline in biomass and total catches in the Western Mediterranean

Impacts du changement global sur la biodiversité en mer Méditerranée : une approche par modélisation End-to-End

Under the combined effects of overexploitation of marine resources and climate change the Mediterranean Sea is gradually becoming a hotspot of global change. Despite a large number of models developed locally or regionally in the Mediterranean Sea, no previous studies have addressed changes in species assemblages at the basin scale with an integrated ecosystem modelling from physics to predators and explicitly representing the multi-species, spatial, and trophic dimensions. This thesis work presents a threefold challenge: (i) implementing such a model of the species richness in the Mediterranean Sea based on life history traits and representing the entire life cycle of interacting species; (ii) projecting the consequences of physical and biogeochemical changes induced by climate change on the spatial distribution of species and on the structure and trophic functioning of the Mediterranean ecosystem; (iii) exploring fisheries management scenarios aiming at rebuilding some stocks of commercial interest in a climate change context. To address these challenges, an end-to-end model, OSMOSE-MED, based on the coupling of a high trophic level OSMOSE model with NEMOMED12 and ECO3M-S physical and biogeochemical models, has been developed. With 100 modelled species, representing nearly 95% of the catches made in the Mediterranean Sea, it is the first trophic model of this type to integrate such a large diversity of species, on such a large spatial scale (the Mediterranean Sea as a whole) and at fine resolution (20x20 km²). According to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, projections made with the OSMOSE-MED model show an overall increase in biomass and catches of 22% and 7% respectively by the end of the century. However, these increases mask large geographical disparities. The eastern basin is characterized by an overall increase in biomass associated with exotic species. With regard to catches, the model projects increase in the eastern basin and a significant decrease in the western part. A change in the species composition of catches could appear during the 21st century with winner (e.g. anchovy) and loser (e.g. hake) species. Winner species would mainly belong to the small pelagics group, are thermophilic and/or exotic, of smaller sizes and of low trophic level while loser species are generally large-sized, some of them of great commercial interest, and could suffer from a spatial mismatch with potential prey subsequent to a contraction or shift of their geographic range. Fisheries management scenario projections highlight the benefits of greater selectivity or reduced fishing mortality for the recovery of certain stocks of commercial interest, particularly among organisms belonging to the demersal, benthic and large pelagic groups. A reduction in fishing mortality could also reverse the projected decline in biomass and total catches in the Western Mediterranean.Sous les effets combinés de la surexploitation des ressources marines et du changement climatique la mer Méditerranée se transforme progressivement en un point chaud du changement global. En dépit d’un grand nombre de modèles développés localement ou régionalement en mer Méditerranée, aucun ne s’est encore attelé aux modifications d'assemblages d’espèces à l’échelle du bassin avec une modélisation intégrée des écosystèmes de la physique jusqu’aux prédateurs et représentant explicitement les dimensions à la fois multi-spécifique, spatiale, et trophique. Ces travaux de thèse présentent donc un triple enjeu : (i) mettre en œuvre une telle modélisation de la richesse spécifique en Méditerranée basée sur les traits de vie et représentant l'intégralité du cycle de vie d’espèces en interaction ; (ii) projeter les conséquences des changements physiques et biogéochimiques induits par le changement climatique sur la distribution spatiale des espèces et sur la structure et le fonctionnement trophique de l'écosystème méditerranéen ; (iii) explorer des scénarios de gestion des pêches visant à reconstituer certains stocks d'intérêts commerciaux dans un contexte de changement climatique. Pour répondre à ces enjeux, un modèle end-to-end, OSMOSE-MED, s’appuyant sur le couplage d’un modèle de hauts niveaux trophiques OSMOSE à des modèles de physique et de biogéochimie NEMOMED12 et ECO3M-S, a été développé. Avec cent espèces modélisées, représentant près de 95 % des captures effectuées en Méditerranée, il s’agit du premier modèle trophique de ce type intégrant une aussi grande richesse spécifique, sur une échelle spatiale aussi vaste (la mer Méditerranée dans son ensemble) et à fine résolution (20x20 km²). Selon le scénario d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre RCP8.5, les projections réalisées avec le modèle OSMOSE-MED mettent en évidence une augmentation globale de la biomasse et des captures, respectivement de 22% et 7% d'ici la fin du siècle. Ces augmentations masquent néanmoins de grandes disparités géographiques. Le bassin oriental se démarque par une augmentation globale de la biomasse associée aux espèces exotiques. Au regard des captures, le modèle prévoit des augmentations dans le bassin oriental et une diminution importante dans la partie occidentale. Un changement de la composition spécifique des captures pourrait apparaître au cours du 21ème siècle avec l'apparition d'espèces gagnantes (e.g. anchois) et perdantes (e.g. merlu). Les espèces gagnantes seraient principalement les espèces de petits pélagiques, thermophiles et/ou exotiques, de plus petites tailles et de plus bas niveaux trophiques tandis que les espèces perdantes seraient généralement les grands démersaux et pélagiques, pouvant pâtir d'un décalage spatial avec leurs proies potentielles à la suite d'une contraction ou d'un déplacement de leur aire de répartition géographique. Dans ce contexte, les projections de scénarios de gestion des pêches mettent en évidence les avantages d'une plus grande sélectivité ou d'une réduction de la mortalité par pêche pour reconstituer certains stocks d'intérêts commerciaux, en particulier parmi les organismes appartenant au groupe des démersaux, benthiques et grands pélagiques. Une réduction de la mortalité par pêche pourrait en outre inverser les tendances projetées à la baisse de la biomasse et des captures totales en Méditerrannée occidentale

Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries

Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots, one of the world’s most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries’ exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected

Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980–2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context

Sub-chapter 2.1.2. Climate change induces bottom-up changes in the food webs of the Mediterranean Sea

At the global scale, one of the main effects of climate change on marine ecosystems is changing the rate and patterns of primary production (Brown et al. 2010). In the Mediterranean Sea, although there is no consensus and no clear trends have emerged, several studies expect that, by increasing the vertical stability of the water column and by decreasing nutrient replenishment, seawater warming will cause changes in phytoplankton bloom phenology, biomass and community structure (Goffart et al...

Stakeholder engagement in participatory research in French marine and freshwater social-ecological systems: A systematic map protocol

\ₑprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2688-8319.12304International audienceStakeholder engagement (SkE) in research is currently experiencing significant growth within the fields of environmental and sustainability sciences. Stakeholder engagement ensures the relevance of research questions to societal expectations and the uptake and salience of the co-produced knowledge and results for their use in the decision-making process. In a context of societal challenges regarding biodiversity conservation and the sustainability of marine and freshwater social-ecological systems (SESs), participatory approaches constitute key methods in applied research involving actions and decision-making. There are, however, many gaps in the practical, conceptual and ethical ways stakeholders have been involved in research. We propose here a systematic map of the literature on SkE in research on marine and aquatic SESs carried out on French European and overseas territories, in order to draw up the first comprehensive overview of how SkE has developed and changed since 1945. This systematic map will identify a representative list of scientific articles on SkE in French marine and freshwater social-ecological research. The literature search will include both academic literature (e.g. peer-reviewed articles, reviews, meta-analyses) and grey literature (e.g. reports, working papers) using the most relevant search engines for the scientific literature published between 1945 and 2023. Retrieved publications will be reviewed for relevance according to a predefined set of eligibility/ineligibility criteria by a group of trained reviewers. The eligibility check will be done in two successive screening steps: (1) title and abstract and (2) full text, each independently performed by two reviewers. All retained literature will be subjected to coding and metadata extraction using the Sysrev platform. No validity assessment will be undertaken. A database of the metadata extracted will be provided, along with a narrative description of the evidence base, and a set of figures and tables summarizing the relevant characteristics of the studies. This systematic map will provide a reliable overview of SkE conducted in research projects on French aquatic social-ecological systems to strengthen the science–society relationship and help future research projects implement efficient and sustainable SkE processes in France and elsewhere

Rebuilding Mediterranean marine resources under climate change

The Mediterranean Sea ranks among the most overexploited and fastest-warming ocean regions. This situation calls for urgent development of global change scenarios and models of marine biodiversity to anticipate changes and support ecosystem-based management strategies across the entire Mediterranean Sea. Using a new end-to-end modelling chain for the whole Mediterranean Sea, we explored the potential effects of changes in fishing pressure on marine resources and ecosystem structure and functioning under a worst-case climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We found that a decrease in fishing mortality or an improvement in fishing selectivity could increase the total biomass and total catch of high trophic level species by the middle and end of the 21st century, especially the biomass of demersal, large pelagic and benthic species, thereby reversing the projected climate-induced decrease in their biomass and catch by the end of the century in the western Mediterranean basin. In contrast, climate change could offer opportunities for some eastern Mediterranean fisheries to increase catches of thermophilic and/or exotic species benefiting from new favourable environmental conditions. Based on a suite of ecological indicators, our results indicated clear positive effects of a more sustainable fisheries management on ecosystem structure and functioning. However, a decrease in fishing pressure may not fully compensate for climate-induced changes on marine resources and ecosystems, but rather buffer some projected negative impacts. Our study highlights the need for a more sustainable exploitation of fisheries resources to restore marine ecosystems and increase their resilience in a global change context

Mistaking plastic for zooplankton: Risk assessment of plastic ingestion in the Mediterranean sea

Floating plastic debris is a pervasive pollutant in seas and oceans, affecting a wide range of animals. In particular, microplastics (<5 mm in size) increase the possibility that marine species consume plastic and enter the food chain. The present study investigates this potential mistake between plastic debris and zooplankton by calculating the plastic debris to zooplankton ratio over the whole Mediterranean Sea. To this aim, in situ data from the Tara Mediterranean Expedition are combined with environmental and Lagrangian diagnostics in a machine learning approach to produce spatially-explicit maps of plastic debris and zooplankton abundance. We then analyse the plastic to zooplankton ratio in regions with high abundances of pelagic fish. Two of the major hotspots of pelagic fish, located in the Gulf of Gabès and Cilician basin, were associated with high ratio values. Finally, we compare the plastic to zooplankton ratio values in the Pelagos Sanctuary, an important hotspot for marine mammals, with other Geographical Sub-Areas, and find that they were among the larger of the Western Mediterranean Sea. Our results indicate a high potential risk of contamination of marine fauna by plastic and advocate for novel integrated modelling approaches which account for potential trophic transfer within the food chain

Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity

WOS:000721610200003International audienceIn face of global changes, projecting and mapping biodiversity changes are of critical importance to support management and conservation measures of marine ecosystems. Despite the development of a wide variety of ecosystem models capable of integrating an increasing number of ecological processes, most projections of climate-induced changes in marine biodiversity are based on species distribution models (SDMs). These correlative models present a significant advantage when the lack of knowledge on the species physiology is counterbalanced by the availability of relevant environmental variables over the species geographical range. However, correlative SDMs neglect intra- and inter-specific interactions and thereby can lead to biased projections of changes in biodiversity distribution. To evaluate the influence of trophic interactions on projections of species richness and assemblage composition under climate change scenarios, we compared biodiversity projections derived from an ensemble of different SDMs to projections derived from a hybrid model coupling SDMs and a multispecies trophic model in the Mediterranean Sea. Our results show that accounting for trophic interactions modifies projections of future biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, SDMs tended to overestimate the gains and underestimate the losses of species richness by the end of the 21st century, with marked local differences in projections, both in terms of magnitude and trend, in some biodiversity hotspots. In both SDMs and hybrid approaches, nestedness with gains in species richness was the main pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future fish and macro-invertebrate species assemblages at the Mediterranean basin scale. However, at local scale, we highlighted some differences in the relative contribution of nestedness vs replacement in driving dissimilarity. Our results call for the development of integrated modelling tools that can mechanistically consider multiple biotic and abiotic drivers to improve projections of future marine biodiversity

Sub-chapter 2.1.4. Climate change and fisheries

There is considerable evidence that Mediterranean marine species have been shifting their ranges, migration patterns, seasonal activities and periodicities, abundances, growth and mortality rates, and consequently their trophic interactions in response to climate change and variability. These responses may ultimately have significant consequences for ecosystem productivity, biodiversity and functioning and hence for the overall goods and ecosystem services they provide, especially the product..