Increasing the Relevance and Effectiveness of Residual Climate Risk Management in German Development Cooperation

Losses and damages in the context of the climate crisis pose major challenges for development cooperation. They result from residual climate risks, i.e. risks that remain after risks have been reduced through mitigation and adaptation. As part of the evaluation of climate change adaptation interventions, DEval examined the instruments of German development cooperation for managing residual climate risks (Leppert et al., 2021). This Policy Brief shows how their relevance and effectiveness can be increased

Deutsche EZ zum Umgang mit residualen Klimarisiken stärken

Die deutsche Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (EZ) verfügt im internationalen Vergleich über ein großes Portfolio, um Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer im umfassenden Umgang mit Klimarisiken zu unterstützen. Im Rahmen der Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel hat das DEval die Instrumente der deutschen EZ zum Umgang mit residualen Klimarisiken untersucht (Leppert et al., 2021). Dieser Policy Brief fasst die zentralen Ergebnisse dieser Evaluierung zusammen

A Proof-of-Concept of Integrating Machine Learning, Remote Sensing, and Survey Data in Evaluations: The Measurement of Disaster Resilience in the Philippines

Disaster resilience is a topic of increasing importance for policy makers in the context of climate change. However, measuring disaster resilience remains a challenge as it requires information on both the physical environment and socio-economic dimensions. In this study we developed and tested a method to use remote sensing (RS) data to construct proxy indicators of socio-economic change. We employed machine-learning algorithms to generate land-cover and land-use classifications from very high-resolution satellite imagery to appraise disaster damage and recovery processes in the Philippines following the devastation of typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. We constructed RS-based proxy indicators for N=20 barangays (villages) in the region surrounding Tacloban City in the central east of the Philippines. We then combined the RS-based proxy indicators with detailed socio-economic information collected during a rigorous-impact evaluation by DEval in 2016. Results from a statistical analysis demonstrated that fastest post-disaster recovery occurred in urban barangays that received sufficient government support (subsidies), and which had no prior disaster experience. In general, socio-demographic factors had stronger effects on the early recovery phase (0-2 years) compared to the late recovery phase (2-3 years). German development support was related to recovery performance only to some extent. Rather than providing an in-depth statistical analysis, this study is intended as a proof-of-concept. We have been able to demonstrate that high-resolution RS data and machine-learning techniques can be used within a mixed-methods design as an effective tool to evaluate disaster impacts and recovery processes. While RS data have distinct limitations (e.g., cost, labour intensity), they offer unique opportunities to objectively measure physical, and by extension socio-economic, changes over large areas and long time-scales.Zunehmende Wetterextreme und Naturkatastrophen sind Folgen des Klimawandels. Aufgrund dieser steigenden Risiken rückt die Resilienz der Bevölkerung im Katastrophenfall als zentrales Thema in den Vordergrund und hat zunehmende Bedeutung für politische Entscheidungstragende. Dennoch bleibt die Messung des mehrdimensionalen Konzepts der Katastrophenresilienz eine Herausforderung, da sie Informationen sowohl über die physische Umgebung als auch sozioökonomische Faktoren erfordert. In dieser Studie wird eine Methode entwickelt, um aus Fernerkundungsdaten (RS-Daten) Indikatoren zu entwickeln, die Aspekte des sozioökonomischen Wandels approximieren und somit messbar machen (Proxy-Indikatoren). Zu diesem Zweck wurden Algorithmen des maschinellen Lernens eingesetzt. Mit Hilfe dieser Algorithmen wurden aus hochauflösenden Satellitenbildern Klassifizierungen für Landstruktur und Landnutzung konstruiert, um Katastrophenschäden und iederaufbauprozesse auf den Philippinen nach der Zerstörung durch den Taifun Haiyan im November 2013 zu messen. Aus den RS-Daten wurden die Indikatoren für N=20 Barangays (Dörfer) in der Region um die Stadt Tacloban im zentralen Osten der Philippinen berechnet. Diese auf RS-Daten basierenden Indikatoren wurden mit detaillierten sozioökonomischen Informationen kombiniert, die für eine DEval-Evaluierung im Jahr 2016 erhoben wurden. Die Ergebnisse der statistischen Analyse zeigen, dass der schnellste Wiederaufbau nach der Katastrophe in städtischen Barangays zu beobachten war, die ausreichend staatliche Unterstützung (Subventionen) erhielten und über keine Katastrophenerfahrung verfügten. Im Vergleich hatten soziodemografische Faktoren allgemein stärkere Auswirkungen auf die frühe (0-2 Jahre) als auf die spätere (2-3 Jahre) Wiederaufbauphase. Es konnte nur ein bedingter Bezug zwischen der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und den Wiederaufbauerfolgen festgestellt werden. Diese Studie versteht sich als Nachweis der Machbarkeit, weniger als detaillierte statistische Analyse. Sie belegt, dass hochauflösende RS-Daten und Techniken des maschinellen Lernens innerhalb eines integrierten Methodendesigns als effektives Werkzeug zur Bewertung von Katastrophenauswirkungen und Wiederherstellungsprozessen eingesetzt werden können. Trotz spezifischer Einschränkungen (hohe Kosten, Arbeitsintensität etc.) bieten RS-Daten einzigartige Möglichkeiten sowohl Umweltbedingungen als auch sozioökonomische Veränderungen über große Gebiete und lange Zeiträume hinweg objektiv messen zu können

Trends in protected area representation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in five tropical countries

In late 2020, governments will set the next decade of conservation targets under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. Setting new targets requires understanding how well national protected area (PA) networks are spatially representing important areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyzed the representation of biodiversity priority areas (BPAs), forests, forest carbon stocks, non-timber forest products (NTFPs), and freshwater ecosystem services (FES) within terrestrial PA systems in Cambodia, Guyana, Liberia, Madagascar, and Suriname in 2003 and 2017. Four of the countries (all except Suriname) expanded their terrestrial PA networks during the study period. In all five countries, we found that PAs represented BPAs, forests, and forest carbon stocks relatively well, based on their size. PAs did not represent NTFPs and FES particularly well, except in Cambodia where FES were well represented. Countries that expanded PA networks during the study period also increased representation of forests, BPAs, and ES; in Cambodia and Madagascar these increases were substantial. Representation could be improved across all five countries, however, indicating that additional efforts are needed to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem benefits to people in these countries

Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Synthesebericht

Der vorliegende Synthesebericht schließt die modulare DEval-Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel ab. Ziel des Berichts ist es, die Wirksamkeit des Anpassungsportfolios der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (EZ) und der Umsetzung des Mainstreamings von Anpassung sowie die Förderung von transformativen und konfliktsensiblen Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu bewerten. Neben einer Evaluierungssynthese zur Wirksamkeit der Maßnahmen nutzt die Evaluierung Fallanalysen, theoriebildende Schreibtischstudien und Workshop

ACCESS TO CREDIT AS A DETERMINANT OF AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE:A meta-analysis of the evidence in low- and middle-income countries

This study assesses the role that access to credit plays in determining the uptake of adaptation measures in the agricultural sector. To this end, this meta-analysis synthesizes relevant studies contained in a recently published evidence gap map (EGM) on the effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions in low- and middle-income countries. The results show a significant disparity of effects, with a large proportion of studies showing that credit-related variables do not significantly affect decisions to adopt adaptation measures. Furthermore, our meta-regression shows that certain study design elements have a strong correlation with the studies' results, such as estimation method, number of covariates and selection of control variables. We conclude that narrower definitions of credit variables, together with counterfactual study designs, should be used to obtain more reliable and robust evidence on the subject. From a policy perspective, access to credit, while important and relevant for building resilience and encouraging investments, might not be a sufficient factor in encouraging autonomous adaptation. When designing financial products, it is essential to consider the preferences among highly vulnerable households and individuals, who may channel resources towards other needs.Diese Studie untersucht die Rolle des Zugangs zu Krediten für die Aufnahme von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel im Agrarsektor. Dazu werden in dieser Metaanalyse die - für diese Forschungsfrage relevanten - Studien synthetisiert, welche in einer kürzlich veröffentlichten Karte der Evidenzlücken (Evidence Gap Map, EGM) über die Wirksamkeit von Anpassungsmaßnahmen in Ländern mit niedrigem und mittlerem Einkommen enthalten sind. Die Ergebnisse zeigen signifikante Unterschiede in den Auswirkungen. Ein großer Anteil der Studien zeigt, dass kreditbezogene Variablen die Entscheidungen zur Aufnahme von Anpassungsmaßnahmen nicht signifikant beeinflussen. Darüber hinaus zeigt eine Meta-Regression, dass bestimmte Elemente des Studiendesigns eine starke Korrelation mit den Ergebnissen der Studien aufweisen, wie beispielsweise die Schätzmethode, die Anzahl der Kovariaten und die Auswahl der Kontrollvariablen. Eine Schlussfolgerung ist, dass eine engere Definition der Variable "Zugang zu Krediten" zusammen mit kontrafaktischen Studiendesigns verwendet werden sollten, um zuverlässigere und robustere Evidenz zu diesem Thema zu generieren. Aus politischer Sicht ist der Zugang zu Krediten zwar wichtig und relevant für Resilienzstärkung und Investitionen, aber möglicherweise kein ausreichender Faktor zur Förderung autonomer Anpassung. Bei der Gestaltung von Finanzprodukten ist es von entscheidender Bedeutung, die Präferenzen von hochgradig vulnerablen Haushalten und Individuen zu berücksichtigen, die ihre Ressourcen möglicherweise für andere Bedürfnisse einsetzen

Representatividade espacial da Biodiversidade e Serviços de Ecossistemas em Áreas Protegidas na Amazônia

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ecologia apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e TecnologiaO objetivo principal deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho das áreas protegidas da Amazônia na representatividade espacial da biodiversidade e serviços de ecossistemas. A Amazônia é composta por partes de nove países da América do Sul: Bolívia, Brasil, Colômbia, Equador, Guiana Francesa, Guiana, Peru, Suriname e Venezuela. A biodiversidade e os serviços de ecossistemas que foram analisados são a riqueza de espécies, espécies endêmicas, florestas e estoque de carbono florestal, serviços de ecossistemas de água doce, regulação inundação debaixo mudança climática e produtos florestais não madeireiros (PFNM). A selecção destes serviços foi feita com base na sua importância não só a nível local e regional, mas também à escala global. A nossa hipótese de trabalho focou-se na análise de que as actuais áreas protegidas na Amazônia representam melhor as regiões que são importantes para a biodiversidade e serviços de ecossistemas do que locais localizados aleatoriamente de áreas espaciais equivalentes. Adicionalmente, esperava-se que as áreas protegidas na região tenham melhorado ao longo do tempo em termos de representatividade espacial, uma vez que há uma crescente conscientização sobre a importância da conservação da biodiversidade e dos serviços de ecossistemas. Para testar estas hipóteses, examinamos dois períodos: 2003, data do Quinto Congresso Mundial sobre Parques Nacionais e Áreas Protegidas, em que muitos países se comprometeram em expandir as suas áreas protegidas, e 2016, o ano mais recente para o qual existiam dados disponíveis. Mais concretamente, as seguintes questões foram abordadas: Qual a percentagem de biodiversidade e serviços de ecossistemas abrangidos por áreas protegidas em 2003? Qual a percentagem de biodiversidade e serviços de ecossistemas conservados pelas atuais áreas protegidas (em 2016)? Qual a percentagem de biodiversidade e serviços de ecossistemas que teriam sido protegidos se as áreas protegidas fossem "configuradas otimamente" de forma a maximizar a sua conservação? Ou seja, se as áreas protegidas estivessem localizadas nos locais “ideais”, seriam mais eficazes em representar a biodiversidade e os serviços de ecossistemas na Amazônia? Os resultados obtidos neste estudo indicam que a atual rede de áreas protegidas na Amazônia favorece a representatividade de alguns elementos da biodiversidade e de serviços de ecossistemas, como florestas e estoques de carbono, em detrimento de outros atributos incluídos na análise, como produtos florestais não madeireiros (PFNM). Verificou-se ainda uma grande diferença na representatividade espacial da biodiversidade e dos serviços de ecossistemas entre países, sendo os países com melhor desempenho a Bolívia, Peru e Venezuela. Este estudo pretende assim contribuir para uma colmatar lacuna na literatura atual, através da avaliação espacial da representatividade das áreas protegidas na Amazônia para a conservação da biodiversidade e serviços de ecossistemas. Por outro lado, avaliou-se ainda se existiram melhorias na representação espacial ao longo do tempo e se melhorias adicionais são possíveis no futuro. Para o conhecimento do autor, nenhuma avaliação em larga escala dos serviços de ecossistemas na Amazônia existe na literatura atual. Este é também o primeiro estudo a examinar conjuntamente a representatividade espacial das áreas protegidas tanto para a biodiversidade como para os serviços de ecossistemas. O estudo destaca os sucessos de conservação a nível regional e nacional, informa os esforços para orientar a conservação futura para os lugares mais importantes e ajuda os países a entender se eles estão alcançando o CBD Aichi Target 11, em termos de representar a biodiversidade e os serviços de ecossistemas em seus sistemas de áreas protegidas.The main objective of this study was to measure the performance of protected areas in spatially representing biodiversity and ecosystem services in Amazonia. Amazonia is comprised of parts of nine countries in South America: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela. The key types of biodiversity and ecosystem services that were analyzed are species richness, endemic species, forests and forest carbon stocks, freshwater ecosystem services, flood regulation under climate change, and non-timber forest products (NTFPs). These biodiversity assets and ecosystem services were selected because of their importance in Amazonia, not only at a local or regional scale, but also globally. Our hypothesis was that current protected areas in Amazonia are better at representing regions which are important for biodiversity and ecosystem services than randomly located sites of equivalent spatial areas. Additionally, it was expected that protected areas in the region have performed better over time in terms of spatial representation, since there is increasing awareness of the importance of biodiversity and ecosystem services. We examined two time periods: 2003, the date of the Fifth World Congress on National Parks and Protected Areas, at which many countries committed to expanding their protected areas networks, and 2016, the most recent year for which data was available at the time of this analysis. Specifically, the following research questions were addressed: What percentage of biodiversity and ecosystem services did protected areas protect in 2003? What percentage of biodiversity and ecosystem services do they protect now (in 2016)? What percentage of biodiversity and ecosystem services would have been protected if protected areas were ‘optimally configured’ to protect the most biodiversity and ecosystem services? That is, if protected areas were located in the optimal locations, could they be doing a better job of representing biodiversity and ecosystem services? Results indicate that the current protected areas network in Amazonia favours the representation of some elements of biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as forests and carbon stocks, over the others included in the analysis. There is also a large difference in spatial representation of biodiversity and ecosystem services between countries, with the best-performing countries being Bolivia, Peru, and Venezuela. This study fills a gap in existing research by assessing whether protected areas in Amazonia are located strategically in terms of representing biodiversity and ecosystem services, whether there has been improvement in spatial representation over time, and whether further improvement is possible in the future. To the author’s knowledge, no study of this kind exists in the current literature. Specifically, no large-scale assessment of ecosystem services in Amazonia has been done so far. This is also the first study to examine the spatial representation of protected areas for both biodiversity and ecosystem services together. The study highlights the conservation successes at the regional level and national levels, informs efforts to target future conservation to the most important places, and helps countries understand whether they are achieving the CBD Aichi Target 11, in terms of representing biodiversity and ecosystem services in their protected area systems.Outro - European Commissio