Runaway thinning of the low-elevation Yakutat Glacier, Alaska, and its sensitivity to climate change

Lake-calving Yakutat Glacier in southeast Alaska, USA, is undergoing rapid thinning and terminus retreat. We use a simplified glacier model to evaluate its future mass loss. In a first step we compute glacier-wide mass change with a surface mass-balance model, and add a mass loss component due to ice flux through the calving front. We then use an empirical elevation change curve to adjust for surface elevation change of the glacier and finally use a flotation criterion to account for terminus retreat due to frontal ablation. Surface mass balance is computed on a daily timescale; elevation change and retreat is adjusted on a decadal scale. We use two scenarios to simulate future mass change: (1) keeping the current (2000–10) climate and (2) forcing the model with a projected warming climate. We find that the glacier will disappear in the decade before 2110 or 2070 under constant or warming climates, respectively. For the first few decades, the glacier can maintain its current thinning rates by retreating and associated loss of high-ablating, low-elevation areas. However, once higher elevations have thinned substantially, the glacier can no longer counteract accelerated thinning by retreat and mass loss accelerates, even under constant climate conditions. We find that it would take a substantial cooling of 1.5°C to reverse the ongoing retreat. It is therefore likely that Yakutat Glacier will continue its retreat at an accelerating rate and disappear entirely

Tracking icebergs with time-lapse photography and sparse optical flow, LeConte Bay, Alaska, 2016–2017

We present a workflow to track icebergs in proglacial fjords using oblique time-lapse photos and the Lucas-Kanade optical flow algorithm. We employ the workflow at LeConte Bay, Alaska, where we ran five time-lapse cameras between April 2016 and September 2017, capturing more than 400 000 photos at frame rates of 0.5–4.0 min−1. Hourly to daily average velocity fields in map coordinates illustrate dynamic currents in the bay, with dominant downfjord velocities (exceeding 0.5 m s−1 intermittently) and several eddies. Comparisons with simultaneous Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements yield best agreement for the uppermost ADCP levels (∼ 12 m and above), in line with prevalent small icebergs that trace near-surface currents. Tracking results from multiple cameras compare favorably, although cameras with lower frame rates (0.5 min−1) tend to underestimate high flow speeds. Tests to determine requisite temporal and spatial image resolution confirm the importance of high image frame rates, while spatial resolution is of secondary importance. Application of our procedure to other fjords will be successful if iceberg concentrations are high enough and if the camera frame rates are sufficiently rapid (at least 1 min−1 for conditions similar to LeConte Bay).This work was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OPP-1503910, OPP-1504288, OPP-1504521 and OPP-1504191).Ye

Bucki (2006), Rapid erosion of soft sediments by tidewater glacier advance: Taku Glacier

[1] Taku Glacier in southeast Alaska has advanced 7.5 km over the last 115 years, overriding its own glaciomarine and outwash sediments. We have documented rapid erosion of these sediments by comparing radio echo soundings (RES) along five transects (2003)(2004)(2005) to earlier RES surveys (1989 and 1994) and to early bathymetric surveys of the proglacial fjord. Erosion rates, _ E, reached 3.9 ± 0.8 m

Asynchronous behavior of outlet glaciers feeding Godthåbsfjord (Nuup Kangerlua) and the triggering of Narsap Sermia's retreat in SW Greenland

We assess ice loss and velocity changes between 1985 and 2014 of three tidewater and fiveland terminating glaciers in Godthabsfjord (Nuup Kangerlua), Greenland. Glacier thinning accounted for 43.8 +/- 0.2 km(3) of ice loss, equivalent to 0.10 mm eustatic sea-level rise. An additional 3.5 +/- 0.3 km(3) was lost to the calving retreats of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) and Narsap Sermia (NS), two tidewater glaciers that exhibited asynchronous behavior over the study period. KNS has retreated 22 km from its Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum (1761 AD), of which 0.8 km since 1985. KNS has stabilized in shallow water, but seasonally advects a 2 km long floating tongue. In contrast, NS began retreating from its LIA moraine in 2004-06 (0.6 km), re-stabilized, then retreated 3.3 km during 2010-14 into an over-deepened basin. Velocities at KNS ranged 5-6 km a(-1), while at NS they increased from 1.5 to 5.5 km a(-1) between 2004 and 2014. We present comprehensive analyses of glacier thinning, runoff, surface mass balance, ocean conditions, submarine melting, bed topography, ice melange and conclude that the 2010-14 NS retreat was triggered by a combination of factors but primarily by an increase in submarine melting.We thank W. Dryer and D. Podrasky for assistance with fieldwork and L. Kenefic for assisting with digitizing glacier front positions. CH2 M HILL Polar Services and Air Greenland provided logistics support. The SPOT-5 images used for the 2008 DEM were provided by the SPIRIT program (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, France). The DigitalGlobe Worldview images used for the 2014 DEM were obtained from P. Morin. Terminus positions were derived from Landsat images courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. Funding was provided by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of Polar Programs (OPP) grants NSF PLR-0909552 and NSF PLR-0909333. Cassotto is supported by NASA under the Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant NNX14AL29H). K. K. Kjeldsen acknowledges support from the Danish Council Research for Independent Research (grant no. DFF-409000151). K. Kjaer is thanked for his support during the earlier phases of this study. On-ice weather stations are operated by GEUS (Denmark) within the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE). J. Mortensen acknowledges support from IIKNN (Greenland), DEFROST project of the Nordic Centre of Excellence program "Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere" and the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme (www. g-e-m. dk).S. Rysgaard was funded by the Canada Excellence Research Chair Programme. Additional funding was provided by the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Greenland Climate Research Centre. Scientific editor H. Fricker and reviewers H. Jiskoot and G. Cogley provided very constructive feedback that helped improve the paper.Peer ReviewedRitrýnt tímari

Subglacial Discharge Reflux and Buoyancy Forcing Drive Seasonality in a Silled Glacial Fjord

Fjords are conduits for heat and mass exchange between tidewater glaciers and the coastal ocean, and thus regulate near-glacier water properties and submarine melting of glaciers. Entrainment into subglacial discharge plumes is a primary driver of seasonal glacial fjord circulation; however, outflowing plumes may continue to influence circulation after reaching neutral buoyancy through the sill-driven mixing and recycling, or reflux, of glacial freshwater. Despite its importance in non-glacial fjords, no framework exists for how freshwater reflux may affect circulation in glacial fjords, where strong buoyancy forcing is also present. Here, we pair a suite of hydrographic observations measured throughout 2016–2017 in LeConte Bay, Alaska, with a three-dimensional numerical model of the fjord to quantify sill-driven reflux of glacial freshwater, and determine its influence on glacial fjord circulation. When paired with subglacial discharge plume-driven buoyancy forcing, sill-generated mixing drives distinct seasonal circulation regimes that differ greatly in their ability to transport heat to the glacier terminus. During the summer, 53%–72% of the surface outflow is refluxed at the fjord's shallow entrance sill and is subsequently re-entrained into the subglacial discharge plume at the fjord head. As a result, near-terminus water properties are heavily influenced by mixing at the entrance sill, and circulation is altered to draw warm, modified external surface water to the glacier grounding line at 200 m depth. This circulatory cell does not exist in the winter when freshwater reflux is minimal. Similar seasonal behavior may exist at other glacial fjords throughout Southeast Alaska, Patagonia, Greenland, and elsewhere.This work was supported by NSF Arctic Natural Sciences grants OPP-1503910, 1504191, 1504288, and 1504521. The authors thank Pat Dryer, Dylan Winters, Erin Pettit, and the crews of the R/V Pelican and M/V Stellar for their contributions to the fieldwork. The authors thank Petersburg High School and the U.S. Forest Service for accommodating this project, and our two anonymous reviewers for their feedback in improving the manuscript. The authors also acknowledge the Shtax'héen Kwáan Tlingits, whose ancestral lands lie in this region.Ye

Observing calving-generated ocean waves with coastal broadband seismometers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland

We use time-lapse photography, MODIS satellite imagery, ocean wave measurements and regional broadband seismic data to demonstrate that icebergs that calve from Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, can generate ocean waves that are detectable over 150 km from their source.We use time-lapse photography, MODIS satellite imagery, ocean wave measurements and regional broadband seismic data to demonstrate that icebergs that calve from Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, can generate ocean waves that are detectable over 150 km from their source. The waves, which are recorded seismically, have distinct spectral peaks, are not dispersive and persist for several hours. On the basis of these observations, we suggest that calving events at Jakobshavn Isbræ can stimulate seiches, or basin eigenmodes, in both Ilulissat Icefjord and Disko Bay. Our observations furthermore indicate that coastal, land-based seismometers located near calving termini (e.g. as part of the new Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN)) can aid investigations into the largely unexplored, oceanographic consequences of iceberg calving.Funding for this project was provided by NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Program (NNG06GB49G), the US National Science Foundation (ARC0531075, ARC0909552 and ANT0944193), the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021-113503/1) and a Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research (CIFAR) International Polar Year (IPY) student fellowship under US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cooperative agreement NA17RJ1224 with the University of Alaska. The seismic data were col- lected and distributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN) federation and its members: data from GDH were collected by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS); data from ASI, ILU and SUMG were collected by GEOFON; data from SFJ/SFJD were collected by GEUS, GEOFON, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO); and data from ILULI were collected by ETH. We thank J. Brown and D. Podrasky for assistance with fieldwork and D.R. MacAyeal and E.A. Okal for discussions that led to and improved the manuscript. The manuscript benefited from the comments of O. Sergienko, an anonymous reviewer and editor P. Christoffersen.Ye

Formation, flow and break-up of ephemeral ice mélange at LeConte Glacier and Bay, Alaska.

© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the same Creative Commons licence is included and the original work is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use. Supplementary material. The supplementary material for this article can be found at https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.29Ice mélange has been postulated to impact glacier and fjord dynamics through a variety of mechanical and thermodynamic couplings. However, observations of these interactions are very limited. Here, we report on glaciological and oceanographic data that were collected from 2016 to 2017 at LeConte Glacier and Bay, Alaska, and serendipitously captured the formation, flow and break-up of ephemeral ice mélange. Sea ice formed overnight in mid-February. Over the subsequent week, the sea ice and icebergs were compacted by the advancing glacier terminus, after which the ice mélange flowed quasi-statically. The presence of ice mélange coincided with the lowest glacier velocities and frontal ablation rates in our record. In early April, increasing glacier runoff and the formation of a sub-ice-mélange plume began to melt and pull apart the ice mélange. The plume, outgoing tides and large calving events contributed to its break-up, which took place over a week and occurred in pulses. Unlike observations from elsewhere, the loss of ice mélange integrity did not coincide with the onset of seasonal glacier retreat. Our observations provide a challenge to ice mélange models aimed at quantifying the mechanical and thermodynamic couplings between ice mélange, glaciers and fjords.This work was supported by the US NSF awards OPP-1503910, OPP-1504191, OPP-1504288, OPP-1504521 and DMR-1506307. The WorldView imagery and DEM were provided by the Polar Geospatial Center under US NSF awards OPP-1043681, OPP-1559691 and OPP-1542736. The IfSAR DEM is distributed through the USGS Earth Resources Observation Center. Field logistics was provided by CH2MHill Polar Field Services and would not have been possible without the help of the crew of the MV Steller and MV Pelican, Temsco Helicopters, Petersburg High School and the US Forest Service. We also thank J.B. Mickett, D.S. Winters, W.P. Dryer, A. Stewart, M. Michels, C. Carr, T. Moon, A. Simpson and E.C. Pettit for assistance with field work and data processing and M. Truffer for loaning the GPRI radar interferometer.Ye

Volume changes of Jacobshavn Isbrae between 1985, 1997 and 2007

Following three decades of relative stability, Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland, underwent dramatic thinning, retreat and speed-up starting in 1998. To assess the amount of ice loss, we analyzed 1985 aerial photos and derived a 40 m grid digital elevation model (DEM). We also obtained a 2007 40 m grid SPOT DEM covering the same region. Comparison of the two DEMs over an area of ~4000 km**2 revealed a total ice loss of 160 ± 4 km**3, with 107 ± 0.2 km**3 in grounded regions (0.27 mm eustatic sea-level rise) and 53 ± 4 km**3 from the disintegration of the floating tongue. Comparison of the DEMs with 1997 NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper data indicates that this ice loss essentially occurred after 1997, with +0.7 ± 5.6 km**3 between 1985 and 1997 and -160 ± 7 km**3 between 1997 and 2007. The latter is equivalent to an average specific mass balance of -3.7 ± 0.2 m/a over the study area. Previously reported thickening of the main glacier during the early 1990s was accompanied by similar-magnitude thinning outside the areas of fast flow, indicating that the land-based ice continued reacting to longer-term climate forcing