When tariff cuts don't boost import variety

Sustained growth of international trade since World War II has coincided with an array of trade agreements and gradual reduction of tariffs. How much declining tariffs boosted commerce and the impact of liberalized trade rules on a country's standard of living have been a central focus of trade-policy economic research. The welfare effects of trade liberalization can be quite different when viewed from either of two perspectives--from the intensive margin, where liberalizing countries import more of the same goods, or from the extensive margin, where countries import a greater variety of items. If a trade policy's impact on the extensive margin is significant, the benefits of liberalization, or the costs of protection, are potentially much higher. ; The distinction between intensive and extensive margins is quite important since countries' exports vary across industries and among trading partners, with commercial patterns changing over time. The range of goods countries trade tended to increase substantially following implementation of some preferential trading agreements that eliminated barriers. However, the actual contribution of lower tariffs may be, in fact, quite modest relative to growth in the variety of exports constituting the extensive margin. ; The range of goods exported to the U.S. has increased substantially, with little evidence that tariff liberalization is a primary cause. While these findings may be specific to the U.S. and the small tariff decreases in recent years, other factors related to productivity and economic growth appear to be more important in explaining increased export variety.Tariff ; International trade ; Imports

Expanding variety of goods underscores battle for competitive advantage

The variety of goods imported to the U.S. has dramatically increased in the past two decades. This growth reflects a widening circle of nations delivering the same goods to this country. In some cases, the U.S. makes its own version of these products--such as Hershey's chocolate, which is consumed within the U.S. and exported. At the same time, a growing number of competing brands originating from numerous other countries are sold here. ; Such increasing variety of trade has been characteristic of many goods. Analyzing this type of commercial activity helps explain how countries and firms gain a competitive advantage, how they organize their production internationally and how quickly they can expand into new product lines.International trade ; Imports ; Consumer behavior ; Productivity

Evaluation of school absenteeism data for early outbreak detection, New York City

BACKGROUND: School absenteeism data may have utility as an early indicator of disease outbreaks, however their value should be critically examined. This paper describes an evaluation of the utility of school absenteeism data for early outbreak detection in New York City (NYC). METHODS: To assess citywide temporal trends in absenteeism, we downloaded three years (2001–02, 2002–03, 2003–04) of daily school attendance data from the NYC Department of Education (DOE) website. We applied the CuSum method to identify aberrations in the adjusted daily percent absent. A spatial scan statistic was used to assess geographic clustering in absenteeism for the 2001–02 academic year. RESULTS: Moderate increases in absenteeism were observed among children during peak influenza season. Spatial analysis detected 790 significant clusters of absenteeism among elementary school children (p < 0.01), two of which occurred during a previously reported outbreak. CONCLUSION: Monitoring school absenteeism may be moderately useful for detecting large citywide epidemics, however, school-level data were noisy and we were unable to demonstrate any practical value in using cluster analysis to detect localized outbreaks. Based on these results, we will not implement prospective monitoring of school absenteeism data, but are evaluating the utility of more specific school-based data for outbreak detection

Crow deaths as a sentinel surveillance system for West Nile virus in the northeastern United States, 1999.

In addition to human encephalitis and meningitis cases, the West Nile (WN) virus outbreak in the summer and fall of 1999 in New York State resulted in bird deaths in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. From August to December 1999, 295 dead birds were laboratory-confirmed with WN virus infection; 262 (89%) were American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The New York State Department of Health received reports of 17,339 dead birds, including 5,697 (33%) crows; in Connecticut 1,040 dead crows were reported. Bird deaths were critical in identifying WN virus as the cause of the human outbreak and defining its geographic and temporal limits. If established before a WN virus outbreak, a surveillance system based on bird deaths may provide a sensitive method of detecting WN virus

A Space–Time Permutation Scan Statistic for Disease Outbreak Detection

BACKGROUND: The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many national, state, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems with daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits, ambulance dispatch calls, or pharmacy sales for which population-at-risk information is unavailable or irrelevant. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We propose a prospective space–time permutation scan statistic for the early detection of disease outbreaks that uses only case numbers, with no need for population-at-risk data. It makes minimal assumptions about the time, geographical location, or size of the outbreak, and it adjusts for natural purely spatial and purely temporal variation. The new method was evaluated using daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits in New York City. Four of the five strongest signals were likely local precursors to citywide outbreaks due to rotavirus, norovirus, and influenza. The number of false signals was at most modest. CONCLUSION: If such results hold up over longer study times and in other locations, the space–time permutation scan statistic will be an important tool for local and national health departments that are setting up early disease detection surveillance systems

A stimulus to define informatics and health information technology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the growing interest by leaders, policy makers, and others, the terminology of health information technology as well as biomedical and health informatics is poorly understood and not even agreed upon by academics and professionals in the field.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The paper, presented as a Debate to encourage further discussion and disagreement, provides definitions of the major terminology used in biomedical and health informatics and health information technology. For informatics, it focuses on the words that modify the term as well as individuals who practice the discipline. Other categories of related terms are covered as well, from the associated disciplines of computer science, information technolog and health information management to the major application categories of applications used. The discussion closes with a classification of individuals who work in the largest segment of the field, namely clinical informatics.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>The goal of presenting in Debate format is to provide a starting point for discussion to reach a documented consensus on the definition and use of these terms.</p

A Human-Health Risk Assessment for West Nile Virus and Insecticides Used in Mosquito Management

West Nile virus (WNV) has been a major public health concern in North America since 1999, when the first outbreak in the Western Hemisphere occurred in New York City. As a result of this ongoing disease outbreak, management of mosquitoes that vector WNV throughout the United States and Canada has necessitated using insecticides in areas where they traditionally have not been used or have been used less frequently. This has resulted in concerns by the public about the risks from insecticide use. The objective of this study was to use reasonable worst-case risk assessment methodologies to evaluate human-health risks for WNV and the insecticides most commonly used to control adult mosquitoes. We evaluated documented health effects from WNV infection and determined potential population risks based on reported frequencies. We determined potential acute (1-day) and subchronic (90-day) multiroute residential exposures from each insecticide for several human subgroups during a WNV disease outbreak scenario. We then compared potential insecticide exposures to toxicologic and regulatory effect levels. Risk quotients (RQs, the ratio of exposure to toxicologic effect) were < 1.0 for all subgroups. Acute RQs ranged from 0.0004 to 0.4726, and subchronic RQs ranged from 0.00014 to 0.2074. Results from our risk assessment and the current weight of scientific evidence indicate that human-health risks from residential exposure to mosquito insecticides are low and are not likely to exceed levels of concern. Further, our results indicate that, based on human-health criteria, the risks from WNV exceed the risks from exposure to mosquito insecticides

Identification of Class I HLA T Cell Control Epitopes for West Nile Virus

The recent West Nile virus (WNV) outbreak in the United States underscores the importance of understanding human immune responses to this pathogen. Via the presentation of viral peptide ligands at the cell surface, class I HLA mediate the T cell recognition and killing of WNV infected cells. At this time, there are two key unknowns in regards to understanding protective T cell immunity: 1) the number of viral ligands presented by the HLA of infected cells, and 2) the distribution of T cell responses to these available HLA/viral complexes. Here, comparative mass spectroscopy was applied to determine the number of WNV peptides presented by the HLA-A*11:01 of infected cells after which T cell responses to these HLA/WNV complexes were assessed. Six viral peptides derived from capsid, NS3, NS4b, and NS5 were presented. When T cells from infected individuals were tested for reactivity to these six viral ligands, polyfunctional T cells were focused on the GTL9 WNV capsid peptide, ligands from NS3, NS4b, and NS5 were less immunogenic, and two ligands were largely inert, demonstrating that class I HLA reduce the WNV polyprotein to a handful of immune targets and that polyfunctional T cells recognize infections by zeroing in on particular HLA/WNV epitopes. Such dominant HLA/peptide epitopes are poised to drive the development of WNV vaccines that elicit protective T cells as well as providing key antigens for immunoassays that establish correlates of viral immunity. © 2013 Kaabinejadian et al

West Nile Virus Infection among the Homeless, Houston, Texas1

Among 397 homeless participants studied, the overall West Nile virus (WNV) seroprevalence was 6.8%. Risk factors for WNV infection included being homeless >1 year, spending >6 hours outside daily, regularly taking mosquito precautions, and current marijuana use. Public health interventions need to be directed toward this high-risk population