An incremental explanation of inference in Bayesian networks for increasing model trustworthiness and supporting clinical decision making

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to ‘hybrid’ BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted

The first report of the genus and species of Florithrips traegardhi (Thysa.: Thripidae) from Iran

A faunistic study of the order Thysanoptera was conducted in cereal crop fields of the southwestern Iranian province of Khuzestan during 2007-2009. The species Florithrips traegardhi (Trybom) was collected from various grasses including corn, rice and wheat and later found its genus and species are new records for Iran

M-CSF instructs myeloid lineage fate in single haematopoietic stem cells

Under stress conditions such as infection or inflammation the body rapidly needs to generate new blood cells that are adapted to the challenge. Haematopoietic cytokines are known to increase output of specific mature cells by affecting survival, expansion and differentiation of lineage-committed progenitors, but it has been debated whether long-term haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are susceptible to direct lineage-specifying effects of cytokines. Although genetic changes in transcription factor balance can sensitize HSCs to cytokine instruction, the initiation of HSC commitment is generally thought to be triggered by stochastic fluctuation in cell-intrinsic regulators such as lineage-specific transcription factors, leaving cytokines to ensure survival and proliferation of the progeny cells. Here we show that macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF, also called CSF1), a myeloid cytokine released during infection and inflammation, can directly induce the myeloid master regulator PU.1 and instruct myeloid cell-fate change in mouse HSCs, independently of selective survival or proliferation. Video imaging and single-cell gene expression analysis revealed that stimulation of highly purified HSCs with M-CSF in culture resulted in activation of the PU.1 promoter and an increased number of PU.1(+) cells with myeloid gene signature and differentiation potential. In vivo, high systemic levels of M-CSF directly stimulated M-CSF-receptor-dependent activation of endogenous PU.1 protein in single HSCs and induced a PU.1-dependent myeloid differentiation preference. Our data demonstrate that lineage-specific cytokines can act directly on HSCs in vitro and in vivo to instruct a change of cell identity. This fundamentally changes the current view of how HSCs respond to environmental challenge and implicates stress-induced cytokines as direct instructors of HSC fate

Sequential sampling of overwintered sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Het.: Scutelleridae) in rainfed wheat fields in Borujerd, Iran

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps Puton, is the most important pest of wheat and barley in most wheat producing regions of Iran, including Lorestan province. The pest overwinters under bushes in mountains and returns to wheat fields in the next spring. Study of spatial distribution of overwintered sunn pest (OSP) in rainfed wheat fields using two quadrate sizes (50 à 50 cm2 = 0.25 m2 and 70.71 à 70.71 cm2 = 0.5 m2) and their conformity with negative binomial distribution, showed a dispersion pattern of aggregation. In this study, a sequential sampling plan (Waldâs method) was presented by use of 1.5 OSP/m2 as an action threshold and 1.05 OSP/m2 as the safety level, and estimating the common K (Kc) for the both sizes of quadrates in 2004 and 2005. Two sizes of quadrates were used as sample units to estimate densities and dispersion patterns of the pest populations. The decision lines, y = 0.32x ± 7.62 andy = 0.63x ± 7.44 were calculated for 0.25 and 0.5 m2 quadrates, respectively. The operating characteristic (OC) and average sample number (ASN) curves indicated that low numbers of samples are required for control decision making when the population densities are either low (less than 0.22 and 0.44 OSP/q for small and large quadrates, respectively) or high (more than 0.45 and 0.89 OSP/q for small and large quadrates, respectively). However, the number of samples required will be high when the population density is nearly medium and at the point of inflection of OC curve (0.32 and 0.63 OSP/q for small and large quadrates, respectively)

Regular dorsal dimples and damaged mites of Varroa destructor in some Iranian honey bees (Apis mellifera)

The frequency of damaged Varroadestructor Anderson and Trueman (Mesostigmata: Varroidae) found on the bottom board of hives of the honey bee, Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae) has been used as an indicator of the degree of tolerance or resistance of honey bee colonies against mites. However, it is not clear that this measure is adequate. These injuries should be separated from regular dorsal dimples that have a developmental origin. To investigate damage to Varroa mites and regular dorsal dimples, 32 honey bee (A. mellifera) colonies were selected from four Iranian provinces: Isfahan, Markazi, Qazvin, and Tehran. These colonies were part of the National Honey bee Breeding Program that resulted in province-specific races. In April, Varroa mites were collected from heavily infested colonies and used to infest the 32 experimental colonies. In August, 20 of these colonies were selected (five colonies from each province). Adult bees from these colonies were placed in cages and after introducing mites, damaged mites were collected from each cage every day. The average percentage of injured mites ranged from 0.6 to 3.0% in four provinces. The results did not show any statistical differences between the colonies within provinces for injuries to mites, but there were some differences among province-specific lines. Two kinds of injuries to the mites were observed: injuries to legs and pedipalps, and injuries to other parts of the body. There were also some regular dorsal dimples on dorsal idiosoma of the mites that were placed in categories separate from mites damaged by bees. This type of classification helps identifying damage to mites and comparing them with developmental origin symptoms, and may provide criteria for selecting bees tolerant or resistant to this mite

CRPV Genomes with Synonymous Codon Optimizations in the CRPV E7 Gene Show Phenotypic Differences in Growth and Altered Immunity upon E7 Vaccination

Papillomaviruses use rare codons relative to their hosts. Recent studies have demonstrated that synonymous codon changes in viral genes can lead to increased protein production when the codons are matched to those of cells in which the protein is being expressed. We theorized that the immunogenicity of the virus would be enhanced by matching codons of selected viral genes to those of the host. We report here that synonymous codon changes in the E7 oncogene are tolerated in the context of the cottontail rabbit papillomavirus (CRPV) genome. Papilloma growth rates differ depending upon the changes made indicating that synonymous codons are not necessarily neutral. Immunization with wild type E7 DNA yielded significant protection from subsequent challenge by both wild type and codon-modified genomes. The reduction in growth was most dramatic with the genome containing the greatest number of synonymous codon changes

TNF signalling drives expansion of bone marrow CD4+ T cells responsible for HSC exhaustion in experimental visceral leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis is associated with significant changes in hematological function but the mechanisms underlying these changes are largely unknown. In contrast to naïve mice, where most long-term hematopoietic stem cells (LT-HSCs; LSK CD150+ CD34- CD48- cells) in bone marrow (BM) are quiescent, we found that during Leishmania donovani infection most LT-HSCs had entered cell cycle. Loss of quiescence correlated with a reduced self-renewal capacity and functional exhaustion, as measured by serial transfer. Quiescent LT-HSCs were maintained in infected RAG2 KO mice, but lost following adoptive transfer of IFNγ-sufficient but not IFNγ-deficient CD4+ T cells. Using mixed BM chimeras, we established that IFNγ and TNF signalling pathways converge at the level of CD4+ T cells. Critically, intrinsic TNF signalling is required for the expansion and/or differentiation of pathogenic IFNγ+CD4+ T cells that promote the irreversible loss of BM function. These finding provide new insights into the pathogenic potential of CD4+ T cells that target hematopoietic function in leishmaniasis and perhaps other infectious diseases where TNF expression and BM dysfunction also occur simultaneously

Antagonizing retinoic acid receptors increases myeloid cell production by cultured human hematopoietic stem cells

Activities of the retinoic acid receptor (RAR)α and RARγ are important to hematopoiesis. Here, we have investigated the effects of receptor selective agonists and antagonists on the primitive human hematopoietic cell lines KG1 and NB-4 and purified normal human hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). Agonizing RARα (by AGN195183) was effective in driving neutrophil differentiation of NB-4 cells and this agonist synergized with a low amount (10 nM) of 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3) to drive monocyte differentiation of NB-4 and KG1 cells. Treatment of cultures of human HSCs (supplemented with stem cell factor ± interleukin 3) with an antagonist of all RARs (AGN194310) or of RARα (AGN196996) prolonged the lifespan of cultures, up to 55 days, and increased the production of neutrophils and monocytes. Slowing down of cell differentiation was not observed, and instead, hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells had expanded in number. Antagonism of RARγ (by AGN205728) did not affect cultures of HSCs. Studies of CV-1 and LNCaP cells transfected with RAR expression vectors and a reporter vector revealed that RARγ and RARβ are activated by sub-nM all-trans retinoic acid (EC(50)–0.3 nM): ~50-fold more is required for activation of RARα (EC(50)–16 nM). These findings further support the notion that the balance of expression and activity of RARα and RARγ are important to hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell expansion and differentiation

Perivascular macrophages in health and disease

Macrophages are a heterogeneous group of cells that are capable of carrying out distinct functions in different tissues, as well as in different locations within a given tissue. Some of these tissue macrophages lie on, or close to, the outer (abluminal) surface of blood vessels and perform several crucial activities at this interface between the tissue and the blood. In steady-state tissues, these perivascular macrophages maintain tight junctions between endothelial cells and limit vessel permeability, phagocytose potential pathogens before they enter tissues from the blood and restrict inappropriate inflammation. They also have a multifaceted role in diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer disease, multiple sclerosis and type 1 diabetes. Here, we examine the important functions of perivascular macrophages in various adult tissues and describe how these functions are perturbed in a broad array of pathological conditions