A Stochastic Analysis of the Impact of Volatile World Agricultural Prices on European and UK Agriculture

Successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms and trade liberalisation have led to a more market-orientated European agricultural sector, with EU commodity prices now more closely linked to world prices. As a consequence EU prices have become more volatile. Greater price volatility increases uncertainty and raises fresh challenges for projections of policy impacts in the EU. To take account of world price volatility stochastic modelling has been applied to the FAPRI-EU partial equilibrium model, which includes a UK modelling system. Stochastic modelling provides a means to capture some of the inherent uncertainty associated with agricultural production systems. By varying assumptions about certain exogenous variables, stochastic models can be used to examine the different ways markets may behave. Variable world prices are incorporated within the EU GOLD model. This process identifies the impact of a stochastic distribution of world prices on EU agriculture rather than the single point estimates in the conventional deterministic approach. The results outlined in this study demonstrate the impact of volatile world prices on EU and, in particular, UK prices and market control instrumentsAgricultural policy, Stochastic modelling, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Impact of the abolition of EU Milk quotas on Agriculture in the UK

In recent years the CAP has undergone significant reforms, but the dairy sector has largely avoided wholesale changes. The sector, however, is now faced with a significant effort by the Commission to instigate reform. In this study the FAPRI-UK modelling system is simulated to identify the impact of abolishing or phasing out EU milk quotas on the dairy sector in the UK and the results are compared against a 2007 Baseline projection (2007--2016). The results demonstrate that although the impact of the abolition of dairy quotas is fairly modest at the EU-25 level, significant impacts are apparent at the individual country level.Milk Quotas, CAP Reform, Commodity Modelling, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Effective rate equations for the over-damped motion in fluctuating potentials

We discuss physical and mathematical aspects of the over-damped motion of a Brownian particle in fluctuating potentials. It is shown that such a system can be described quantitatively by fluctuating rates if the potential fluctuations are slow compared to relaxation within the minima of the potential, and if the position of the minima does not fluctuate. Effective rates can be calculated; they describe the long-time dynamics of the system. Furthermore, we show the existence of a stationary solution of the Fokker-Planck equation that describes the motion within the fluctuating potential under some general conditions. We also show that a stationary solution of the rate equations with fluctuating rates exists.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures, standard LaTeX2

The role of stationary intraoral tomosynthesis in reducing proximal overlap in bitewing radiography

objectives: This study examined the utility of stationary intraoral tomosynthesis (s-IOT) in opening proximal contacts in bitewing radiography. Methods: 11 DENTSPLY Rinn Dental X-ray Teaching and Training Replica mannequins (Model #546002, Elgin, Ill) were imaged with a prototype s-IOT device (Surround Medical Systems, Morrisville, NC) and standard bitewing (SBW) technique. Premolar and molar bite-wings were acquired with each system. Image receptor holders were used to position receptors and aid in the alignment of the position indicating devices. An expert operator (having more than 5 years of experience in intraoral radiography) acquired the images with the s-IOT prototype and standard intraoral X-ray devices. Images were assessed to analyze percentage overlap of the proximal surfaces using the tools available in ImageJ (NIH, Bethesda Maryland). Results: 253-paired surfaces were included in the analysis. The difference in overlap was statistically significant with standard bitewing (SBW) images resulting in a median overlap of 13%, a minimum of 0%, a maximum of 100% and an interquartile range of 40%. s-IOT resulted in a median overlap of 1%, a minimum of 0%, a maximum of 37% and an interquartile range of 0%. The s-IOT prototype substantially reduced proximal surface overlap compared to conventional bitewing radiography. conclusions: The use of s-IOT reduced proximal contact overlap compared to standard bitewing radiography for an experienced radiographer. Stationary intraoral tomosynthesis may be a potential alternative to SBW radiography, reducing the number of retakes due to closed contacts

Nonequilibrium phase transitions induced by multiplicative noise: effects of self-correlation

A recently introduced lattice model, describing an extended system which exhibits a reentrant (symmetry-breaking, second-order) noise-induced nonequilibrium phase transition, is studied under the assumption that the multiplicative noise leading to the transition is colored. Within an effective Markovian approximation and a mean-field scheme it is found that when the self-correlation time of the noise is different from zero, the transition is also reentrant with respect to the spatial coupling D. In other words, at variance with what one expects for equilibrium phase transitions, a large enough value of D favors disorder. Moreover, except for a small region in the parameter subspace determined by the noise intensity and D, an increase in the self-correlation time usually preventsthe formation of an ordered state. These effects are supported by numerical simulations.Comment: 15 pages. 9 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.

Come back Marshall, all is forgiven? : Complexity, evolution, mathematics and Marshallian exceptionalism

Marshall was the great synthesiser of neoclassical economics. Yet with his qualified assumption of self-interest, his emphasis on variation in economic evolution and his cautious attitude to the use of mathematics, Marshall differs fundamentally from other leading neoclassical contemporaries. Metaphors inspire more specific analogies and ontological assumptions, and Marshall used the guiding metaphor of Spencerian evolution. But unfortunately, the further development of a Marshallian evolutionary approach was undermined in part by theoretical problems within Spencer's theory. Yet some things can be salvaged from the Marshallian evolutionary vision. They may even be placed in a more viable Darwinian framework.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Metal enrichment processes

There are many processes that can transport gas from the galaxies to their environment and enrich the environment in this way with metals. These metal enrichment processes have a large influence on the evolution of both the galaxies and their environment. Various processes can contribute to the gas transfer: ram-pressure stripping, galactic winds, AGN outflows, galaxy-galaxy interactions and others. We review their observational evidence, corresponding simulations, their efficiencies, and their time scales as far as they are known to date. It seems that all processes can contribute to the enrichment. There is not a single process that always dominates the enrichment, because the efficiencies of the processes vary strongly with galaxy and environmental properties.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews, special issue "Clusters of galaxies: beyond the thermal view", Editor J.S. Kaastra, Chapter 17; work done by an international team at the International Space Science Institute (ISSI), Bern, organised by J.S. Kaastra, A.M. Bykov, S. Schindler & J.A.M. Bleeke

Planck 2015 results. XXVII. The Second Planck Catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich Sources

We present the all-sky Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources detected from the 29 month full-mission data. The catalogue (PSZ2) is the largest SZ-selected sample of galaxy clusters yet produced and the deepest all-sky catalogue of galaxy clusters. It contains 1653 detections, of which 1203 are confirmed clusters with identified counterparts in external data-sets, and is the first SZ-selected cluster survey containing > $10^3$ confirmed clusters. We present a detailed analysis of the survey selection function in terms of its completeness and statistical reliability, placing a lower limit of 83% on the purity. Using simulations, we find that the Y5R500 estimates are robust to pressure-profile variation and beam systematics, but accurate conversion to Y500 requires. the use of prior information on the cluster extent. We describe the multi-wavelength search for counterparts in ancillary data, which makes use of radio, microwave, infra-red, optical and X-ray data-sets, and which places emphasis on the robustness of the counterpart match. We discuss the physical properties of the new sample and identify a population of low-redshift X-ray under- luminous clusters revealed by SZ selection. These objects appear in optical and SZ surveys with consistent properties for their mass, but are almost absent from ROSAT X-ray selected samples

System Size and Energy Dependence of Jet-Induced Hadron Pair Correlation Shapes in Cu+Cu and Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 and 62.4 GeV

We present azimuthal angle correlations of intermediate transverse momentum (1-4 GeV/c) hadrons from {dijets} in Cu+Cu and Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The away-side dijet induced azimuthal correlation is broadened, non-Gaussian, and peaked away from \Delta\phi=\pi in central and semi-central collisions in all the systems. The broadening and peak location are found to depend upon the number of participants in the collision, but not on the collision energy or beam nuclei. These results are consistent with sound or shock wave models, but pose challenges to Cherenkov gluon radiation models.Comment: 464 authors from 60 institutions, 6 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Physical Review Letters. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Improved Measurement of Double Helicity Asymmetry in Inclusive Midrapidity pi^0 Production for Polarized p+p Collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV

We present an improved measurement of the double helicity asymmetry for pi^0 production in polarized proton-proton scattering at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV employing the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The improvements to our previous measurement come from two main factors: Inclusion of a new data set from the 2004 RHIC run with higher beam polarizations than the earlier run and a recalibration of the beam polarization measurements, which resulted in reduced uncertainties and increased beam polarizations. The results are compared to a Next to Leading Order (NLO) perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics (pQCD) calculation with a range of polarized gluon distributions.Comment: 389 authors, 4 pages, 2 tables, 1 figure. Submitted to Phys. Rev. D, Rapid Communications. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm