Prediction of the Effects of Liraglutide on Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes Based on Short-Term Changes in Multiple Risk Markers

Aims: The LEADER trial demonstrated that the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) liraglutide reduces kidney and cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with type 2 diabetes. We previously developed a Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score that translates multiple short-term risk marker changes, from baseline to first available follow-up measurement, into a predicted long-term drug effect on clinical outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the PRE score in predicting the efficacy of liraglutide in reducing the risk of kidney and CV outcomes. Methods: Short-term changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (BP), urinary-albumin-creatinine-ratio (UACR), hemoglobin, body weight, high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and potassium were monitored in the LEADER trial. Associations between risk markers and kidney or CV outcomes were established using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model in a separate pooled database of 6,355 patients with type 2 diabetes. The regression coefficients were then applied to the short-term risk markers in the LEADER trial to predict the effects of liraglutide on kidney (defined as a composite of doubling of serum creatinine or end-stage kidney disease) and CV (defined as a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and CV death) outcomes. Results: Liraglutide compared to placebo reduced HbA1c (1.4%), systolic BP (3.0 mmHg), UACR (13.2%), body weight (2.3 kg), hemoglobin (2.6 g/L), and increased HDL-cholesterol (0.01 mmol/L) (all p-values <0.01). Integrating multiple risk marker changes in the PRE score resulted in a predicted relative risk reduction (RRR) of 16.2% (95% CI 13.7–18.6) on kidney outcomes which was close to the observed RRR of 15.5% (95% CI -9.0–34.6). For the CV outcome, the PRE score predicted a 7.6% (95% CI 6.8–8.3) RRR, which was less than the observed 13.2% (95% CI 3.2–22.2) RRR. Conclusion: Integrating multiple short-term risk markers using the PRE score adequately predicted the effect of liraglutide on the composite kidney outcome. However, the PRE score underestimated the effect of liraglutide for the composite CV outcome, suggesting that the risk markers included in the PRE score do not fully capture the CV benefit of liraglutide

Long-Term, Real-World Kidney Outcomes with SGLT2i versus DPP4i in Type 2 Diabetes without Cardiovascular or Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND: Contemporary guidelines recommend the use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) independently of glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes and those with kidney disease, with heart failure, or at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Using a large Israeli database, we assessed whether long-term use of SGLT2is versus dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4is) is associated with kidney benefits in patients with type 2 diabetes overall and in those without evidence of cardiovascular or kidney disease. METHODS: Patients with type 2 diabetes who initiated SGLT2is or DPP4is between 2015 and 2021 were propensity score-matched (1:1) according to 90 parameters. The kidney-specific composite outcome included confirmed ≥40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure. The kidney-or-death outcome included also all-cause mortality. Risks of outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The between-group difference in eGFR slope was also assessed. Analyses were repeated in patients' subgroup lacking evidence of cardiovascular or kidney disease. RESULTS: Overall, 19,648 propensity score-matched patients were included; 10,467 (53%) did not have evidence of cardiovascular or kidney disease. Median follow-up was 38 months (interquartile range, 22-55). The composite kidney-specific outcome occurred at an event rate of 6.9 versus 9.5 events per 1000 patient-years with SGLT2i versus DPP4i. The respective event rates of the kidney-or-death outcome were 17.7 versus 22.1. Compared with DPP4is, initiation of SGLT2is was associated with a lower risk for the kidney-specific (hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61 to 0.86; P &lt; 0.001) and kidney-or-death (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.89; P &lt; 0.001) outcomes. The respective HRs (95% CI) in those lacking evidence of cardiovascular or kidney disease were 0.67 (0.44 to 1.02) and 0.77 (0.61 to 0.97). Initiation of SGLT2is versus DPP4is was associated with mitigation of the eGFR slope overall and in those lacking evidence of cardiovascular or kidney disease (mean between-group differences 0.49 [95% CI, 0.35 to 0.62] and 0.48 [95% CI, 0.32 to 0.64] ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of SGLT2is versus DPP4is in a real-world setting was associated with mitigation of eGFR loss in patients with type 2 diabetes, even in those lacking evidence of cardiovascular or kidney disease at baseline.</p

Epidemiology of the diabetes-cardio-renal spectrum:a cross-sectional report of 1.4 million adults

Background Type-2 diabetes (T2D), chronic kidney disease, and heart failure (HF) share epidemiological and pathophysiological features. Although their prevalence was described, there is limited contemporary, high-resolution, epidemiological data regarding the overlap among them. We aimed to describe the epidemiological intersections between T2D, HF, and kidney dysfunction in an entire database, overall and by age and sex. Methods This is a cross-sectional analysis of adults >= 25 years, registered in 2019 at Maccabi Healthcare Services, a large healthcare maintenance organization in Israel. Collected data included sex, age, presence of T2D or HF, and last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the past two years. Subjects with T2D, HF, or eGFR = 55 years old. eGFR measurements were available in 74.7% of the participants and in over 97% of those with T2D or HF. eGFR availability increased in older age groups. There were 140,636 (10.1%) patients with T2D, 54,187 (3.9%) with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m(2), and 11,605 (0.84%) with HF. Overall, 12.6% had at least one condition within the DCR spectrum, 2.0% had at least two, and 0.23% had all three. Cardiorenal syndrome (both HF and eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m(2)) was prevalent in 0.40% of the entire population and in 2.3% of those with T2D. In patients with both HF and T2D, 55.2% had eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) and 15.8% had eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73m(2). Amongst those within the DCR spectrum, T2D was prominent in younger participants, but was gradually replaced by HF and eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) with increasing age. The congruence between all three conditions increased with age. Conclusions This large, broad-based study provides a contemporary, high-resolution prevalence of the DCR spectrum and its components. The results highlight differences in dominance and degree of congruence between T2D, HF, and kidney dysfunction across ages

Changes in Albuminuria Predict Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: A Post Hoc Analysis of the LEADER Trial

OBJECTIVE A post hoc analysis to investigate the association between 1-year changes in albuminuria and subsequent risk of cardiovascular and renal events. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS LEADER was a randomized trial of liraglutide up to 1.8 mg/day versus placebo added to standard care for 3.5-5 years in 9,340 participants with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. We calculated change in urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) from baseline to 1 year in participants with >30% reduction (n = 2,928), 30-0% reduction (n = 1,218), or any increase in UACR (n = 4,124), irrespective of treatment. Using Cox regression, risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and a composite nephropathy outcome (from 1 year to end of trial in subgroups by baseline UACR [= 300 mg/g]) were assessed. The analysis was adjusted for treatment allocation alone as a fixed factor and for baseline variables associated with cardiovascular and renal outcomes. RESULTS For MACE, hazard ratios (HRs) for those with >30% and 30-0% UACR reduction were 0.82 (95% CI 0.71, 0.94; P = 0.006) and 0.99 (0.82, 1.19; P = 0.912), respectively, compared with any increase in UACR (reference). For the composite nephropathy outcome, respective HRs were 0.67 (0.49, 0.93; P = 0.02) and 0.97 (0.66, 1.43; P = 0.881). Results were independent of baseline UACR and consistent in both treatment groups. After adjustment, HRs were significant and consistent in >30% reduction subgroups with baseline micro- or macroalbuminuria. CONCLUSIONS A reduction in albuminuria during the 1st year was associated with fewer cardiovascular and renal outcomes, independent of treatment. Albuminuria monitoring remains an important part of diabetes care, with great unused potential

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes by baseline albuminuria status and renal function — results from the LEADER randomized trial

Aim: To assess cardiorenal outcomes by baseline urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the contemporary LEADER cohort. Materials and methods: LEADER was a multinational, double-blind trial. Patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular (CV) risk were randomized 1:1 to the glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue liraglutide (≤1.8 mg daily; n = 4668) or placebo (n = 4672) plus standard care and followed for 3.5 to 5 years. Primary composite outcomes were time to first non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or CV death. Post hoc Cox regression analyses of outcomes by baseline UACR and eGFR subgroups were conducted with adjustment for baseline variables. Results: In the LEADER population, 1598 (17.5%), 2917 (31.9%), 1200 (13.1%), 1611 (17.6%), 845 (9.2%) and 966 (10.6%) had UACR = 0, >0 to <15, 15 to <30, 30 to <100, 100 to <300 and ≥300 mg/g, respectively. Increasing UACR and decreasing eGFR were linked with higher risks of the primary outcome, heart failure hospitalization, a composite renal outcome and death (P-values for the Cochran-Armitage test for trends were all <.0001). Across UACR and eGFR subgroups, risks of cardiorenal events and death were generally lower or similar with liraglutide versus placebo. Conclusions: In a contemporary type 2 diabetes population, increasing baseline UACR and declining eGFR were linked with higher risks of cardiorenal events and death

Health-related quality-of-life implications of cardiovascular events in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A subanalysis from the Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (SAVOR)-TIMI 53 trial.

BACKGROUND: The impact of cardiovascular complications on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) in type 2 diabetes mellitus has not been clearly established. Using EQ5D utility data from SAVOR-TIMI 53, a large phase IV trial of saxagliptin versus placebo, we quantified the impact of cardiovascular and other major events on HRQoL. METHODS: EQ5D utilities were recorded annually and following myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. Utilities among patients experiencing major cardiovascular events were analyzed using linear mixed-effects regression, adjusting for baseline characteristics (including EQ5D utility), and compared to those not experiencing major cardiovascular events. Mean utility decrements with standard errors (SE) were estimated as the difference in utility before and after the event. FINDINGS: The mean EQ5D utility of the sample was 0.776 at all time points, and did not differ by treatment. However, mean baseline and month 12 utilities among those with a major cardiovascular event were 0.751 and 0.714. Mean utilities were 0.691 within 3months of, 0.691 3-6months after, and 0.714 6-12months after, a major cardiovascular event. Cardiovascular event-specific utility decrements were 0.05 (0.007) for major cardiovascular events over the same time periods. Decrements of 0.051 (0.012; myocardial infarction), 0.111 (0.022; stroke), 0.065 (0.014; hospitalization for heart failure) 0.019 (0.024; hospitalization for hypoglycemia) were estimated; all coefficients were statistically significant. INTERPRETATION: Consistent with clinical outcomes reported elsewhere, saxagliptin did not improve HRQoL. Cardiovascular complications were associated with significantly decreased HRQoL, most substantial earlier after the event. FUNDING: BMS/AZ

Effect of Dapagliflozin on Cardiovascular Outcomes According to Baseline Kidney Function and Albuminuria Status in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

ImportanceSodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, such as dapagliflozin, promote renal glucose excretion and reduce cardiovascular (CV) deaths and hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF) among patients with type 2 diabetes. The relative CV efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin according to baseline kidney function and albuminuria status are unknown.ObjectiveTo assess the CV efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin according to baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR).Design, setting, and participantsThis secondary analysis of the randomized clinical trial Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 compared dapagliflozin vs placebo in 17 160 patients with type 2 diabetes and a baseline creatinine clearance of 60 mL/min or higher. Patients were categorized according to prespecified subgroups of baseline eGFR (InterventionsDapagliflozin vs placebo.Main outcomes and measuresThe dual primary end points were major adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and CV death) and the composite of CV death or HHF.ResultsAt baseline, 1265 patients (7.4%) had an eGFR below 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 5199 patients (30.9%) had albuminuria. Among patients having data for both eGFR and UACR, 10 958 patients (65.1%) had an eGFR equal to or higher than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and an UACR below 30 mg/g (mean [SD] age, 63.7 [6.7] years; 40.1% women), 5336 patients (31.7%) had either an eGFR below 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria (mean [SD] age, 64.1 [7.1] years; 32.6% women), and 548 patients (3.3%) had both (mean [SD] age, 66.8 [6.9] years; 30.5% women). In the placebo group, patients with more CKD markers had higher event rates at 4 years as assessed using the Kaplan-Meier approach for the composite of CV death or HHF (3.9% for 0 markers, 8.3% for 1 marker, and 17.4% for 2 markers) and major adverse cardiovascular events (7.5% for 0 markers, 11.6% for 1 marker, and 18.9% for 2 markers). Estimates for relative risk reductions for the composite of CV death or HHF and for major adverse cardiovascular events were generally consistent across subgroups (both P > .24 for interaction), although greater absolute risk reductions were observed with more markers of CKD. The absolute risk difference for the composite of CV death or HHF was greater for patients with more markers of CKD (0 markers, -0.5%; 1 marker, -1.0%; and 2 markers, -8.3%; P = .02 for interaction). The numbers of amputations, cases of diabetic ketoacidosis, fractures, and major hypoglycemic events were balanced or numerically lower with dapagliflozin compared with placebo for patients with an eGFR below 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and an UACR of 30 mg/g or higher.Conclusions and relevanceThe effect of dapagliflozin on the relative risk for CV events was consistent across eGFR and UACR groups, with the greatest absolute benefit for the composite of CV death or HHF observed among patients with both reduced eGFR and albuminuria.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01730534

Genetic Risk Score to Identify Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease

BACKGROUND –: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality with a known genetic contribution. We tested the performance of a genetic risk score (GRS) for its ability to predict VTE in three cohorts of patients with cardiometabolic disease. METHODS –: We included patients from the FOURIER, PEGASUS-TIMI 54, and SAVOR-TIMI 53 trials (history of atherosclerosis, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, respectively) who consented for genetic testing and were not on baseline anticoagulation. We calculated a VTE GRS based on 297 SNPs with established genome-wide significance. Patients were divided into tertiles of genetic risk. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios for VTE across genetic risk groups. The polygenic risk score was compared to available clinical risk factors (age, obesity, smoking, history of heart failure, diabetes) and common monogenic mutations. RESULTS –: A total of 29,663 patients were included in the analysis with a median follow-up of 2.4 years, of whom 174 had a VTE event. There was a significantly increased gradient of risk across VTE genetic risk tertiles (p-trend <0.0001). After adjustment for clinical risk factors, patients in the intermediate and high genetic risk groups had a 1.88-fold (95% CI 1.23–2.89, p=0.004) and 2.70-fold (95% CI 1.81–4.06, p<0.0001) higher risk of VTE compared to patients with low genetic risk. In a continuous model adjusted for clinical risk factors, each standard deviation increase in the GRS was associated with a 47% (95% CI 29–68) increased risk of VTE (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS –: In a broad spectrum of patients with cardiometabolic disease, a polygenic risk score is a strong, independent predictor of VTE after accounting for available clinical risk factors, identifying 1/3 of patients who have a risk of VTE comparable to that seen with established monogenic thrombophilia

The Effect of Dapagliflozin on Albuminuria in DECLARE-TIMI 58

OBJECTIVE Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) improve albuminuria in patients with high cardiorenal risk. We report albuminuria change in the Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE-TIMI 58) cardiovascular outcome trial, which included populations with lower cardiorenal risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS DECLARE-TIMI 58 randomized 17,160 patients with type 2 diabetes, creatinine clearance >60 mL/min, and either atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD; 40.6%) or risk-factors for CVD (59.4%) to dapagliflozin or placebo. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) was tested at baseline, 6 months, 12 months, and yearly thereafter. The change in UACR over time was measured as a continuous and categorical variable (15 to = 30 to 300 mg/g) by treatment arm. The composite cardiorenal outcome was a >= 40% sustained decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to 15 to 300 mg/g. Measured as a continuous variable, UACR improved from baseline to 4.0 years with dapagliflozin, compared with placebo, across all UACR and eGFR categories (all P = 1 category improvement in UACR was more common in dapagliflozin versus placebo (hazard ratio 1.45 [95% CI 1.35-1.56], P = 30 mg/g (P < 0.0125, P-interaction = 0.033), and the renal-specific outcome was reduced for all UACR subgroups (P < 0.05, P-interaction = 0.480). CONCLUSIONS In DECLARE-TIMI 58, dapagliflozin demonstrated a favorable effect on UACR and renal-specific outcome across baseline UACR categories, including patients with normal albumin excretion. The results suggest a role for SGLT2i also in the primary prevention of diabetic kidney disease