Exact deterministic representation of Markovian SIR epidemics on networks with and without loops

In a previous paper Sharkey et al. (Bull Math Biol doi: 10.1007/s11538-013-9923-5, 2012) proved the exactness of closures at the level of triples for Markovian SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) dynamics on tree-like networks. This resulted in a deterministic representation of the epidemic dynamics on the network that can be numerically evaluated. In this paper, we extend this modelling framework to certain classes of networks exhibiting loops. We show that closures where the loops are kept intact are exact, and lead to a simplified and numerically solvable system of ODEs (ordinary-differential-equations). The findings of the paper lead us to a generalisation of closures that are based on partitioning the network around nodes that are cut-vertices (i.e. the removal of such a node leads to the network breaking down into at least two disjointed components or subnetworks). Exploiting this structural property of the network yields some natural closures, where the evolution of a particular state can typically be exactly given in terms of the corresponding or projected states on the subnetworks and the cut-vertex. A byproduct of this analysis is an alternative probabilistic proof of the exactness of the closures for tree-like networks presented in Sharkey et al. (Bull Math Biol doi: 10.1007/s11538-013-9923-5, 2012). In this paper we also elaborate on how the main result can be applied to more realistic networks, for which we write down the ODEs explicitly and compare output from these to results from simulation. Furthermore, we give a general, recipe-like method of how to apply the reduction by closures technique for arbitrary networks, and give an upper bound on the maximum number of equations needed for an exact representation

Temporal trends in mode, site and stage of presentation with the introduction of colorectal cancer screening: a decade of experience from the West of Scotland

background:  Population colorectal cancer screening programmes have been introduced to reduce cancer-specific mortality through the detection of early-stage disease. The present study aimed to examine the impact of screening introduction in the West of Scotland. methods:  Data on all patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2003 and December 2012 were extracted from a prospectively maintained regional audit database. Changes in mode, site and stage of presentation before, during and after screening introduction were examined. results:  In a population of 2.4 million, over a 10-year period, 14 487 incident cases of colorectal cancer were noted. Of these, 7827 (54%) were males and 7727 (53%) were socioeconomically deprived. In the postscreening era, 18% were diagnosed via the screening programme. There was a reduction in both emergency presentation (20% prescreening vs 13% postscreening, P0.001) and the proportion of rectal cancers (34% prescreening vs 31% pos-screening, P0.001) over the timeframe. Within non-metastatic disease, an increase in the proportion of stage I tumours at diagnosis was noted (17% prescreening vs 28% postscreening, P0.001). conclusions:  Within non-metastatic disease, a shift towards earlier stage at diagnosis has accompanied the introduction of a national screening programme. Such a change should lead to improved outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer

Relationship between Tibial conformation, cage size and advancement achieved in TTA procedure

Previous studies have suggested that there is a theoretical discrepancy between the cage size and the resultant tibial tuberosity advancement, with the cage size consistently providing less tibial tuberosity advancement than predicted. The purpose of this study was to test and quantify this in clinical cases. The hypothesis was that the advancement of the tibial tuberosity as measured by the widening of the proximal tibia at the tibial tuberosity level after a standard TTA, will be less than the cage sized used, with no particular cage size providing a relative smaller or higher under-advancement, and that the conformation of the proximal tibia will have an influence on the amount of advancement achieved

Radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's oesophagus related neoplasia with the 360 Express catheter: initial experience from the United Kingdom and Ireland—preliminary results

BACKGROUND: Radio-frequency ablation (RFA) for Barrett's oesophagus (BE)-related neoplasia is currently used after endoscopic resection of visible neoplasia. The HALO 360 balloon has been used to ablate long segment BE. The Barrx™ 360 Express RFA self-sizing catheter ('RFA Express') may potentially allow quicker ablation times and improved treatment outcomes. The aim of this paper is to present real world data on the use of the 360 Express Device. METHODS: Centres in the UK and Ireland submitted cases where the RFA Express was used. The primary outcome was regression of BE at 3 months. Secondary outcomes were the rate of symptomatic stricture formation and resolution of intestinal metaplasia (CR-IM) and dysplasia (CR-D) at End of Treatment (EoT). RESULTS: 11 centres submitted 123 consecutive patients. 112 had a follow up endoscopy. The median age was 67 years (IQR 62-75). 3 dosimetries were used. The mean reduction in Circumferential (C) length was 78% ± 36 and mean reduction in Maximal length (M) was 55% ± 36. 17 patients (15%) developed strictures requiring dilation. There was a higher rate of stricture formation when the 12 J energy was used (p < 0.05). 47 patients had EoT biopsies, 40 (85%) had CR-D and 34(76%) had CR-IM. CONCLUSIONS: The RFA 360 Express catheter shows reduction in length of baseline BE at 3 months after index treatment, and eradication of intestinal metaplasia and dysplasia at 12 months similar to other studies with earlier devices. It appears that the symptomatic stricture rate is slightly higher than previous series with the HALO 360 catheter. This study was performed as part of the HALO registry and has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee - MREC Number 08/H0714/27 Local project reference 08/0104 Project ID 15,033 IRAS Number 54678 EudraCT 2009-015980-1. Registered on ISRCTN as below: ISRCTN93069556. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN93069556

Which circulating antioxidant vitamins are confounded by socioeconomic deprivation? The MIDSPAN family study

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Antioxidant vitamins are often described as having “independent” associations with risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. We aimed to compare to what extent a range of antioxidant vitamins and carotenoids are associated with adulthood and childhood markers of socioeconomic deprivation and to adverse lifestyle factors.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methods and Findings:&lt;/b&gt; Socioeconomic and lifestyle measures were available in 1040 men and 1298 women from the MIDSPAN Family Study (30–59 years at baseline) together with circulating levels of vitamins A, C, E, and carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein and lycopene). Markers of socioeconomic deprivation in adulthood were consistently as strongly associated with lower vitamin C and carotenoid levels as markers of adverse lifestyle; the inverse association with overcrowding was particularly consistent (vitamin C and carotenoids range from 19.1% [95% CI 30.3–6.0] to 38.8% [49.9–25.3] lower among those in overcrowded residencies). These associations were consistent after adjusting for month, classical CVD risk factors, body mass index, physical activity, vitamin supplements, dietary fat and fibre intake. Similar, but weaker, associations were seen for childhood markers of deprivation. The association of vitamin A or E were strikingly different; several adult adverse lifestyle factors associated with higher levels of vitamin A and E, including high alcohol intake for vitamin A (9.5% [5.7–13.5]) and waist hip ratio for vitamin E (9.5% [4.8–14.4]), with the latter associations partially explained by classical risk factors, particularly cholesterol levels.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; Plasma vitamin C and carotenoids have strong inverse associations with adulthood markers of social deprivation, whereas vitamin A and E appear positively related to specific adverse lifestyle factors. These findings should help researchers better contextualize blood antioxidant vitamin levels by illustrating the potential limitations associated with making causal inferences without consideration of social deprivation.&lt;/p&gt

Quantifying the profile and progression of impairments, activity, participation, and quality of life in people with Parkinson disease : protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Despite the finding that Parkinson disease (PD) occurs in more than one in every 1000 people older than 60 years, there have been few attempts to quantify how deficits in impairments, activity, participation, and quality of life progress in this debilitating condition. It is unclear which tools are most appropriate for measuring change over time in PD. Methods and design This protocol describes a prospective analysis of changes in impairments, activity, participation, and quality of life over a 12 month period together with an economic analysis of costs associated with PD. One-hundred participants will be included, provided they have idiopathic PD rated I-IV on the modified Hoehn &amp; Yahr (1967) scale and fulfil the inclusion criteria. The study aims to determine which clinical and economic measures best quantify the natural history and progression of PD in a sample of people receiving services from the Victorian Comprehensive Parkinson\u27s Program, Australia. When the data become available, the results will be expressed as baseline scores and changes over 3 months and 12 months for impairment, activity, participation, and quality of life together with a cost analysis. Discussion This study has the potential to identify baseline characteristics of PD for different Hoehn &amp; Yahr stages, to determine the influence of disease duration on performance, and to calculate the costs associated with idiopathic PD. Valid clinical and economic measures for quantifying the natural history and progression of PD will also be identified

Subthreshold depression as a risk indicator for major depressive disorder: a systematic review of prospective studies.

Objective: In order to examine whether the incidence of major depressive disorder (MDD) is increased in subjects with subthreshold depression, or sD (clinically relevant depressive symptoms, without meeting criteria for a full-blown MDD), we conducted a review of prospective studies examining the incidence of MDD in subjects with sD. Method: A systematic literature search was conducted. For all studies, the relative risk of developing MDD was calculated, based on person-years. Results: Twenty studies (23 comparisons) were found, based on community samples, general medical patients and high-risk subjects. Most comparisons showed that subjects with sD had a consistently larger chance of developing MDD. The studies differed considerably in the definition of sD, the recency (occurrence of the last sD) and the in-/ exclusion of lifetime MDD. Conclusion: The incidence of MDD in subjects with sD is larger than in subjects without sD. Otherwise, the concept of sD is too broad to be used. In future studies, some consensus should be reached regarding the definition of sD

Factors Associated with Physician Agreement on Verbal Autopsy of over 11500 Injury Deaths in India

Worldwide, injuries account for 9.8% of all deaths. The majority of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where vital registration systems are often inadequate. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a tool used to ascertain cause of death in such settings. Validation studies for VA using hospital diagnosed causes of death as comparisons have shown that injury deaths can be reliably diagnosed by VA. However, no study has assessed the factors that may affect physicians' abilities to code specific causes of injury death using VA.This study used data from over 11 500 verbal autopsies of injury deaths from the Million Death Study (MDS) in which 6.3 million people in India were monitored from 2001–2003 for vital events. Deaths that occurred in the MDS were coded by two independent physicians. This study focused on whether physician agreement on the classification of injury deaths was affected by characteristics of the deceased and respondent. Agreement was analyzed using three primary methods: 1) kappa statistic; 2) sensitivity and specificity analysis using the final VA diagnosed category of injury death as gold standard; and 3) multivariate logistic regression using a conceptual hierarchical model. The overall agreement for all injury deaths was 77.9% with a kappa of 0.74 (99% CI 0.74–0.75). Deaths in the injury categories of “transport”, “falls”, “drowning” and “other unintentional injury” occurring outside the home were associated with greater physician agreement than those occurring at home. In contrast, self-inflicted injury deaths that occurred outside the home were associated with lower physician agreement.With few exceptions, most characteristics of the deceased and the respondent did not influence physician agreement on the classification of injury deaths. Physician training and continued adaptation of the VA tool should focus on the reasons these factors influenced physician agreement

Classical and semi-classical energy conditions

The standard energy conditions of classical general relativity are (mostly) linear in the stress-energy tensor, and have clear physical interpretations in terms of geodesic focussing, but suffer the significant drawback that they are often violated by semi-classical quantum effects. In contrast, it is possible to develop non-standard energy conditions that are intrinsically non-linear in the stress-energy tensor, and which exhibit much better well-controlled behaviour when semi-classical quantum effects are introduced, at the cost of a less direct applicability to geodesic focussing. In this article we will first review the standard energy conditions and their various limitations. (Including the connection to the Hawking--Ellis type I, II, III, and IV classification of stress-energy tensors). We shall then turn to the averaged, nonlinear, and semi-classical energy conditions, and see how much can be done once semi-classical quantum effects are included.Comment: V1: 25 pages. Draft chapter, on which the related chapter of the book "Wormholes, Warp Drives and Energy Conditions" (to be published by Springer), will be based. V2: typos fixed. V3: small typo fixe