Human operator response to error-likely situations in complex engineering systems

The causes of human error in complex systems are examined. First, a conceptual framework is provided in which two broad categories of error are discussed: errors of action, or slips, and errors of intention, or mistakes. Conditions in which slips and mistakes might be expected to occur are identified, based on existing theories of human error. Regarding the role of workload, it is hypothesized that workload may act as a catalyst for error. Two experiments are presented in which humans' response to error-likely situations were examined. Subjects controlled PLANT under a variety of conditions and periodically provided subjective ratings of mental effort. A complex pattern of results was obtained, which was not consistent with predictions. Generally, the results of this research indicate that: (1) humans respond to conditions in which errors might be expected by attempting to reduce the possibility of error, and (2) adaptation to conditions is a potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations. Subjects' explanations for changes in effort ratings are also explored

PLANNING SOLAR HEATING FOR POULTRY - A LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH

Livestock Production/Industries,

The Arches Cluster: Extended Structure and Tidal Radius

At a projected distance of ~26 pc from Sgr A*, the Arches cluster provides insight to star formation in the extreme Galactic Center (GC) environment. Despite its importance, many key properties such as the cluster's internal structure and orbital history are not well known. We present an astrometric and photometric study of the outer region of the Arches cluster (R > 6.25") using HST WFC3IR. Using proper motions we calculate membership probabilities for stars down to F153M = 20 mag (~2.5 M_sun) over a 120" x 120" field of view, an area 144 times larger than previous astrometric studies of the cluster. We construct the radial profile of the Arches to a radius of 75" (~3 pc at 8 kpc), which can be well described by a single power law. From this profile we place a 3-sigma lower limit of 2.8 pc on the observed tidal radius, which is larger than the predicted tidal radius (1 - 2.5 pc). Evidence of mass segregation is observed throughout the cluster and no tidal tail structures are apparent along the orbital path. The absence of breaks in the profile suggests that the Arches has not likely experienced its closest approach to the GC between ~0.2 - 1 Myr ago. If accurate, this constraint indicates that the cluster is on a prograde orbit and is located front of the sky plane that intersects Sgr A*. However, further simulations of clusters in the GC potential are required to interpret the observed profile with more confidence.Comment: 24 pages (17-page main text, 7-page appendix), 24 figures, accepted to Ap

Examining Admission Factors in an MPA Program

This article presents an in-depth examination of the validity of the admission factors employed by a NASPAA-accredited MPA program. Admission factors are examined to determine if particular factors, or a set of factors, are most indicative of an applicant’s potential achievement in the MPA program as measured by a student’s final grade point average (GPA) in the program. The study uses truncated regression techniques to analyze student records in order to determine the relative significance of a set of commonly collected admissions information. We find that the best predictor of success in the MPA program, as measured by final GPA in the program, is the applicant’s undergraduate GPA. This finding brings into question the utility of much of the information collected in a typical MPA program application

The Quintuplet Cluster: Extended Structure and Tidal Radius

The Quintuplet star cluster is one of only three known young ($<10$ Myr) massive (M $>10^4$ M$_\odot$) clusters within $\sim100$ pc of the Galactic Center. In order to explore star cluster formation and evolution in this extreme environment, we analyze the Quintuplet's dynamical structure. Using the HST WFC3-IR instrument, we take astrometric and photometric observations of the Quintuplet covering a $120''\times120''$ field-of-view, which is $19$ times larger than those of previous proper motion studies of the Quintuplet. We generate a catalog of the Quintuplet region with multi-band, near-infrared photometry, proper motions, and cluster membership probabilities for $10,543$ stars. We present the radial density profile of $715$ candidate Quintuplet cluster members with $M\gtrsim4.7$ M$_\odot$ out to $3.2$ pc from the cluster center. A $3\sigma$ lower limit of $3$ pc is placed on the tidal radius, indicating the lack of a tidal truncation within this radius range. Only weak evidence for mass segregation is found, in contrast to the strong mass segregation found in the Arches cluster, a second and slightly younger massive cluster near the Galactic Center. It is possible that tidal stripping hampers a mass segregation signature, though we find no evidence of spatial asymmetry. Assuming that the Arches and Quintuplet formed with comparable extent, our measurement of the Quintuplet's comparatively large core radius of $0.62^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$ pc provides strong empirical evidence that young massive clusters in the Galactic Center dissolve on a several Myr timescale.Comment: 25 pages (21-page main text, 4-page appendix), 18 figures, submitted to Ap

The orbital motion of the Quintuplet cluster - a common origin for the Arches and Quintuplet clusters?

We investigate the orbital motion of the Quintuplet cluster near the Galactic center with the aim of constraining formation scenarios of young, massive star clusters in nuclear environments. Three epochs of adaptive optics high-angular resolution imaging with Keck/NIRC2 and VLT/NACO were obtained over a time baseline of 5.8 years, delivering an astrometric accuracy of 0.5-1 mas/yr. Proper motions were derived in the cluster reference frame and were used to distinguish cluster members from the majority of field stars. Fitting the cluster and field proper motion distributions with 2D gaussian models, we derive the orbital motion of the cluster for the first time. The Quintuplet is moving with a 2D velocity of 132 +/- 15 km/s with respect to the field along the Galactic plane, which yields a 3D orbital velocity of 167 +/- 15 km/s when combined with the previously known radial velocity. From a sample of 119 stars measured in three epochs, we derive an upper limit to the velocity dispersion in the core of the Quintuplet cluster of sigma_1D < 10 km/s. Knowledge of the three velocity components of the Quintuplet allows us to model the cluster orbit in the potential of the inner Galaxy. Comparing the Quintuplet's orbit with the Arches orbit, we discuss the possibility that both clusters originated in the same area of the central molecular zone. [abridged]Comment: 40 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Is the Cepheus E Outflow driven by a Class 0 Protostar?

New early release observations of the Cepheus E outflow and its embedded source, obtained with the Spitzer Space Telescope, are presented. We show the driving source is detected in all 4 IRAC bands, which suggests that traditional Class 0 classification, although essentially correct, needs to accommodate the new high sensitivity infrared arrays and their ability to detected deeply embedded sources. The IRAC, MIPS 24 and 70 microns new photometric points are consistent with a spectral energy distribution dominated by a cold, dense envelope surrounding the protostar. The Cep E outflow, unlike its more famous cousin the HH 46/47 outflow, displays a very similar morphology in the near and mid-infrared wavelengths, and is detected at 24 microns. The interface between the dense molecular gas (where Cep E lies) and less dense interstellar medium, is well traced by the emission at 8 and 24 microns, and is one of the most exotic features of the new IRAC and MIPS images. IRS observations of the North lobe of the flow confirm that most of the emission is due to the excitation of pure H2 rotational transitions arising from a relatively cold (Tex~700 K) and dense (N{H}~9.6E20 cm-2 molecular gas.Comment: 14 pages (pre-print format), including 6 figures. Published in ApJ Special Spitzer Issue (2004

Circumstellar discs in Galactic centre clusters: Disc-bearing B-type stars in the Quintuplet and Arches clusters

We investigate the circumstellar disc fraction as determined from L-band excess observations of the young, massive Arches and Quintuplet clusters residing in the central molecular zone of the Milky Way. The Quintuplet cluster was searched for L-band excess sources for the first time. We find a total of 26 excess sources in the Quintuplet cluster and 21 in the Arches cluster, of which 13 are new detections. With the aid of proper motion membership samples, the disc fraction of the Quintuplet cluster was derived for the first time to be 4.0 +/- 0.7%. There is no evidence for a radially varying disc fraction in this cluster. In the case of the Arches cluster, a disc fraction of 9.2 +/- 1.2% approximately out to the cluster's predicted tidal radius, r < 1.5 pc, is observed. This excess fraction is consistent with our previously found disc fraction in the cluster in the radial range 0.3 < r < 0.8 pc. In both clusters, the host star mass range covers late A- to early B-type stars, 2 < M < 15 Msun, as derived from J-band photospheric magnitudes. We discuss the unexpected finding of dusty circumstellar discs in these UV intense environments in the context of primordial disc survival and formation scenarios of secondary discs. We consider the possibility that the L-band excess sources in the Arches and Quintuplet clusters could be the high-mass counterparts to T Tauri pre-transitional discs. As such a scenario requires a long pre-transitional disc lifetime in a UV intense environment, we suggest that mass transfer discs in binary systems are a likely formation mechanism for the B-star discs observed in these starburst clusters.Comment: 47 pages, 22 figures, accepted by A&