Effects of demand shocks in the Brazilian economy : new production and value added multipliers

Assuming that the traditional input-output multipliers lead to a misinterpretation of macroeconomic concepts for multisectoral analysis of a given economy, the aim of this article is to calculate the new multipliers of variation in the final demand on the production and value added by the sectors of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1995 and 2009. Using the Euclidean distance method proposed in Amaral et al (2012) and data from input-output tables, the main results showed that: a) the structural change effect was more important than the scale effect, both for the production and for the value added, although it was less important for the latter; b) Brazil is still a major exporter of unprocessed products which will generate jobs, income and taxes abroad, depriving the country of this important benefit; c) the main key sectors were Agricultural (1), Mining (2), Steel industry (4), Chemistry (11), Food industry (16) and some service sectors, such as Public Utilities (18), Trade, (20) Transportation (21), Communication (22), Public administration (24) and Other services (25), revealing the gain in importance of these activities in the national economy.This paper was prepared during a post doc program of Antonio Carlos Moretto and Rossana Lott Rodrigues in UECE, a research center supported by FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia). These authors acknowledge the financial support of the State University of Londrina, Brazil, during the post doc

Structural changes and external vulnerabilities in the brazilian economy : 1995-2009

From the 1990s, the reorientation of the development model, which switched from protective of industrial sector to intensifier of the trade liberalization process, brought the need for reorganization of large productive sectors of the Brazilian economy, were openly forced to face global competitors, within the established international conditions. Thus, during the 1990s, the Brazilian economy experienced a period of fast and deep changes, combining the process of intensification of trade liberalization with a view of industrial and technological policy which combines sectoral and systemic dimension, with privatization of important sectors of the economy (such as electricity and telecommunications sectors), and a stabilization program (Real Plan), based on a fixed exchange rate, with important effects on the whole economy. This article aims to assess the evolution of external vulnerability and structural changes in terms of generating value added in the Brazilian economy in the period 1995-2009, subdivided into three sub-periods, namely 1995-2000, 2000-2005 and 2005 -2009, by means of a novel treatment of the inter-sectoral output multipliers. The data base was the annual input-output matrices from Brazil for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2009, structured into 42 sectors. The main results indicated a very satisfactory behavior of the national economy over time, with a predominance of positive gains in the ability to generate value added and lower imports of intermediate inputs by the most technologically advanced industries and by services, and fewer losses and greater external dependence for the minority of sectors, particularly in recent years

Decomposition & synergy: a study ofthe interactions and dependence among the 5 Brazilian macro regions

The methodology originally developed by Sonis, Hewings, and Miyazawa (1997) is now expanded and discussed more thoroughly when applied to an interregional table at the level of the 5 macro regions of the Brazilian economy for the year of 1995. The methodology used in this work is based on a partitioned inputoutput system and exploits techniques ofthe Leontiefinverse through the nature ofthe internal and external interdependencies giving by the linkages, which allows to classify the types ofsynergetic interactions within a preset pair-wise hierarchy of economic linkages sub-systems. The results show that: a) the North region has practically no relation with the Northeast region and vice-versa; b) while the South region has some impact on the production ofthe North region, the inverse is not true; c) despite the fact thatthe demands from the Central West region have some impact on the production of the other regions, the production in the Central West region has its relations concentrated with the Southeast and South regions; and d) the South and Southeast regions show to be the most important regions in the system

Relações sinérgicas e efeitos sobre a produção setorial no sistema inter-regional Paraná-Restante do Brasil

The present article has as objective to calculate and to analyze the level of the synergic interactions and the overflow of the multiplying effect of the sectorial production between Parana and the Rest of Brazil (Brazil except Parana), using interregional systems of input-output estimated for the years of 1995 and 2000. The main results showed that: a) the dependence of the production of Parana in relation to the flow of trade with the Rest of Brazil raised from 25% in 1995 to 33% in 2000; b) only 1.36% of the production of the Rest of Brazil depended on the flow of input (goods and services) between this and Parana in 1995, reducing this dependence to 0,56% in 2000; c) the overflowing average of the multiplier effect of the production of the sectors of the economy of Parana in direction of the Rest of Brazil raised from 16% in 1995 to 20% in 2000, while in direction of the Rest of Brazil-Parana, it kept on 1%.input-output, synergic interactions, overflow of the production, regional economy., Agribusiness, C67, D57, R15,

Estrutura produtiva e indústria alimentar no Paraná, de 1980 a 1995

The article had as objective to evaluate the evolution of the productive structure and identify the key sectors of Parana in the years of 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995, highlighting the food processing sectors, using estimated input-output matrices. The results showed that the sectors of the transformation industry linked to the food processing sectors lost relative importance in the Parana economy, as much for the linkages with to the other sectors, as for the generation of production value and added value. This loss was more stressed in the more traditional food processing sectors, as Coffee Industry and Vegetal Products, instead of in most modern, as Meat Products, Dairy Products, Sugar Products and Vegetal Oil. Moreover, the production and the income had answered little to the impacts in the final demand in the food processing sectors throughout the analyzed period. Another trend that could be delineated was the change in the productive structure of the State, that became more diversified and complex, in direction of some sectors of the branch services and others emergent ones of the transformation industry, as metallurgy, mechanics and transport equipment.Input-output, Productive structure, Key-sectors, Food processing sectors, Agribusiness,

Brazilian Economy: Structural transformations in the period 1990-2003

The goals of the study were to calculate the employment multiplier of net salary, production and rates of inter-sectoral linkages and structural transformation of the sectors of the Brazilian economy from 1990-2003 from the input-output matrix.The results can be divided into three periods: the first, 1990-1996, was marked by major structural changes, with relocation of production, value added and sectorial employment, increase of the induced effect and increase of trade, services and agriculture participation in production and fall of these in the number of persons employed; the period 1997-1998 showed a smaller structural modification, stability of participation of sectors in production, in value added and in absorption of employed persons; the third period, 1999-2003, showed a decrease of the values of sectors’ induced effect, an increase of agriculture and industry participation in the production and in the value-added and a reduction in the contribution of these sectors in the number of persons employed. As for labor productivity, measured by value added per person, it increased for the agriculture and industry and a decrease in trade and services.Structural Change, Input-Output, Brazilain Economy

Synergetic interactions among four regions in the state of Paraná, Brazil: an interregional input-output analysis

In the last two decades the economy of the State of Paraná, Brazil, presented higher growth rates than the Brazilian economy such that today it contributes to around 6,5% of the Brazilian GDP. In the State one can find four main pole-regions of economic activity: a) Curitiba; b) Londrina; c) Ponta Grossa; and d) Cascavel. From the national input-output tables for Brazil for the year of 1995, and using information from various national and state economic census, a regional input-output table for the state was constructed and then used to estimate an interregional table at the level of the above four regions. Using this interregional input-output system this paper classifies the types of synergetic interactions that do occur among the four regions such that it is possible to analyze how the transactions happen among the pole-regions and how this may have contributed to the higt growth rates verified in the state

Synergetic interactions among four regions in the state of Paraná, Brazil: an interregional input-output analysis

In the last two decades the economy of the State of Paraná, Brazil, presented higher growth rates than the Brazilian economy such that today it contributes to around 6,5% of the Brazilian GDP. In the State one can find four main pole-regions of economic activity: a) Curitiba; b) Londrina; c) Ponta Grossa; and d) Cascavel. From the national input-output tables for Brazil for the year of 1995, and using information from various national and state economic census, a regional input-output table for the state was constructed and then used to estimate an interregional table at the level of the above four regions. Using this interregional input-output system this paper classifies the types of synergetic interactions that do occur among the four regions such that it is possible to analyze how the transactions happen among the pole-regions and how this may have contributed to the higt growth rates verified in the state

Inter-regional system of the of south rest of Brazil: composition of production's and employmnet's multiplier effect

The aim of this study was to analyse the distribution of the multiplier effect of production trigged by the variation of final sectorial demand and to estimate the overflowing effect of production and employment of the input-output inter-regional system formed by the regions Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul (the South Region) and Rest of Brazil, structured in 26 sectors, for the year 1999. The results of the distribution of the multiplier effect of production and employment showed that the greatest values were concentrated in the direction South Region-Rest of Brazil. The estimated values showed that Paraná and Santa Catarina were more dependent of the flows of goods and services from the Rest of Brazil to feed the economic system than Rio Grande do Sul. On the other hand, those two states showed small overflowing values within the South Region, indicating less integration with that Region than with the Rest of Brazil. Within the South Region, there was more overflowing in the direction Santa Catarina-Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul-Paraná, indicating that Paraná was an important inter-regional supplier of goods and services. In the case of Paraná, the greatest values of production overflowing were in the direction Rest of Brazil- South Region, being highlights sectors 15-Clothing, 7-Transport material and 8-Woods and furniture. Within the South Region, the greatest overflowing value was found for sector 15-Clothing, in the direction of Santa Catarina. With respect to the overflowing of employment, the greatest values found for the Rest of Brazil were for sector 17-Food industry. For Paraná, the greatest values of employment overflowing were for the sectors 8-Woods and furniture, 15-Clothing, 17-Food industry, 7-Transportat material, and 16-Other industrial products, in the direction Rest of Brazil. Within the South Region, sectors 17-Food industry and 8-Woods and furniture were outstanding.input-output; inter-regional system; production; employment.

Estrutura produtiva e regiões polarizadas paranaenses: o que mudou em uma década?

In the period 1995-2006 the paranaense economy went through a restructuring process whith technological and productivity gains in several segments. In this context, this article aimed to compare interregional and intersectoral structure of the state economy during this period, subdivided into four polarized regions. Starting from the inter-regional input-output systems, the main results showed that: a) the polarized region by Curitiba reduced its trade relations with the others, becoming less dependent of the system in terms of purchase and sale of inputs, reinforcing its dynamic concentrator; b) the polarized regions by Ponta Grossa, Londrina and Cascavel became more integrated with each other and with the polarized region by Curitiba; c) the polarized regions by Curitiba and Londrina continued as the most important producers of Paraná interregional system; d) the polarized region by Cascavel was the only one of the regions improved their purchasing relationships with other regions of the system.No período 1995-2006 economia paranaense passou por um processo de reestruturação produtiva, com ganhos tecnológicos e de produtividade em vários segmentos. Nesse contexto, esse artigo objetivou comparar a estrutura inter-regional e intersetorial da economia estadual nesse período, subdividida em 4 regiões polarizadas. Partindo dos sistemas inter-regionais de insumo-produto, os principais resultados mostraram que: a) a região polarizada por Curitiba reduziu suas relações comerciais com as demais, se tornando a menos dependente do sistema em termos de compra e venda de insumos, reforçando sua dinâmica concentradora; b) as regiões polarizadas por Ponta Grossa, Londrina e Cascavel se tornaram mais integradas entre si e com a região polarizada por Curitiba; c) as regiões polarizadas por Curitiba e Londrina continuaram como as mais importantes produtoras do sistema inter-regional paranaense; d) a região polarizada por Cascavel foi a única dentre as regiões que melhorou suas relações de compra com as demais regiões do sistem