A hindcast simulation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability, 1955-2001

A hindcast simulation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability during 1955-2001 has been performed with a global, coarse resolution ice-ocean model driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis daily surface air temperatures and winds. Both the mean state and variability of the ice packs over the satellite observing period are reasonably well reproduced by the model. Over the 47-year period, the simulated ice area (defined as the total ice-covered oceanic area) in each hemisphere experiences large decadal variability together with a decreasing trend of ∼1% per decade. In the Southern Hemisphere, this trend is mostly caused by an abrupt retreat of the ice cover during the second half of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. The modelled ice volume also exhibits pronounced decadal variability, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Besides these fluctuations, we detected a downward trend in Arctic ice volume of 1.8% per decade and an upward trend in Antarctic ice volume of 1.5% per decade. However, caution must be exercised when interpreting these trends because of the shortness of the simulation and the strong decadal variations. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments have revealed that the trend in Antarctic ice volume is model-dependent

Water surface height determination with a GPS wave glider: a demonstration in Loch Ness, Scotland

A geodetic GPS receiver has been installed on a Wave Glider, an unmanned water surface vehicle. Using kinematic precise point positioning (PPP) GPS, which operates globally without directly requiring reference stations, surface heights are measured with ~0.05-m precision. The GPS Wave Glider was tested in Loch Ness, Scotland, by measuring the gradient of the loch’s surface height. The experiment took place under mild weather, with virtually no wind setup along the loch and a wave field made mostly of ripples and wavelets. Under these conditions, the loch’s surface height gradient should be approximately equal to the geoid slope. The PPP surface height gradient and that of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 geoid heights do indeed agree on average along the loch (0.03 m km−1). Also detected are 1) ~0.05-m-sized height changes due to daily water pumping for hydroelectricity generation and 2) high-frequency (0.25–0.5 Hz) oscillations caused by surface waves. The PPP heights compare favorably (~0.02-m standard deviation) with relative carrier phase–based GPS processing. This suggests that GPS Wave Gliders have the potential to autonomously determine centimeter-precise water surface heights globally for lake modeling, and also for applications such as ocean modeling and geoid/mean dynamic topography determination, at least for benign surface states such as those encountered during the reported experiment

Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics

The sensitivity of a global thermodynamic-dynamic sea ice model coupled to a one-dimensional upper ocean model to degradations of the model physics is investigated. A single set of parameter values is employed to simultaneously simulate the Arctic and Antarctic ice regimes. A control run carried out with the model demonstrates that it does reasonably well in simulating the seasonal waxing and waning of both ice packs. The sensitivity study focuses on physical processes pertaining to (1) the vertical growth and decay of sea ice, (2) the lateral growth and decay of sea ice, and (3) the sea ice dynamics. A total of nine sensitivity experiments have been performed. It appears that the thermal inertia of the snow-ice system is negligible in the Antarctic but not in the Arctic. It is also found that the inclusion of a prognostic snow layer and of a scheme of snow ice formation is important for sea ice modeling in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, results suggest that the thermodynamic effect of the subgrid-scale snow and ice thickness distributions, the existence of open water areas within the ice cover, and the ice motion play a crucial role in determining the seasonal behavior of both ice packs

Polynyas in a high-resolution dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and their parameterization using flux models

This paper presents an analysis of the solutions for a steady state latent heat polynya generated by an applied wind stress acting over a semi-enclosed channel using: (a) a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and (b) a steady state flux model. We examine what processes in the sea ice model are responsible for the maintenance of the polynya and how sensitive the results are to the choice of rheological parameters. We find that when the ice is driven onshore by an applied wind stress, a consolidated ice pack forms downwind of a zone of strong convergence in the ice velocities. The build-up of internal stresses within the consolidated ice pack becomes a crucial factor in the formation of this zone and results in a distinct polynya edge. Furthermore, within the ice pack the across-channel ice velocity varies with the across-channel distance. It is demonstrated that provided this velocity is well represented, the steady state polynya flux model solutions are in close agreement with those of the sea ice model. Experiments with the sea ice model also show that the polynya shape and area are insensitive to (a) the sea ice rheology; (b) the imposition of either free- slip or no-slip boundary conditions. These findings are used in the development of a simplified model of the consolidated ice pack dynamics, the output of which is then compared with the sea ice model results. Finally, we discuss the relevance of this study for the modelling of the North Water Polynya in northern Baffin Bay

Spatio-temporal variability of polynya dynamics and ice production in the Laptev Sea between the winters of 1979/80 and 2007/08

Polynyas in the Laptev Sea are examined with respect to recurrence and interannual wintertime ice production.We use a polynya classification method based on passive microwave satellite data to derive daily polynya area from long-term sea-ice concentrations. This provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability of open-water and thin-ice regions on the Laptev Sea Shelf. Using thermal infrared satellite data to derive an empirical thin-ice distribution within the thickness range from 0 to 20 cm, we calculate daily average surface heat loss and the resulting wintertime ice formation within the Laptev Sea polynyas between 1979 and 2008 using reanalysis data supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, as atmospheric forcing. Results indicate that previous studies significantly overestimate the contribution of polynyas to the ice production in the Laptev Sea. Average wintertime ice production in polynyas amounts to approximately 55 km39 27% and is mostly determined by the polynya area, wind speed and associated large-scale circulation patterns. No trend in ice production could be detected in the period from 1979/80 to 2007/08